I would not be so sure Atleti are clear favorites. They have a deep bench, added a quality midfielder, true. However, at the risk of sounding like Birdy, they and particularly Suarez had been outscoring the xG at a crazy level before they started to lose points in February or so. Suarez is a year older now and looked like a bum at Copa. They will challenge for the title but luck won't be on their side anymore. The stars were right for them last season.