I also think that Messi has more chances than we think.
Fifa scandalous decision to re-open votes dented his chances somewhat but I still think there are plenty of voters who won't be affected by latest developments. Messi's been the best for years now and many voters (particularly from outside Europe) don't think much of Champions League.
I think, it'll be between Messi and Ronaldo. Both deserved it for their individual performances this year.
x2Messi will win.