I don't even expect Messi to be 4th. He'll be behind at least two frenchies (Varane and Griezmann), Modric, CR, and possibly Mbappe. So 5th or 6th. I'm not arguing if it's fair or not, just stating the obvious, considering the way the votes usually go. And to anyone trying to argue that Iniesta and Sneijder didn't win when they won important titles, or that "you never know how african countries are gonna vote": go read the wikipedia page about how the BO was/is elected (and the difference between Le Ballon d'Or France Football and le Ballon d'Or FIFA). Or find one of my old post about it. Unless something truly spectacular happens (unlikely, since the vote end on the 9th of november), the winner and the top 3 are already pretty much set in stone, and they'll only be amongst winners of major tournaments.