10 - Lionel Messi - V6

[kollegah]

During Msn, he had better attacking partners than under Pep.
Plus he still had Iniesta, Busquets and Alves.
Only Xavi was missing.

Yet, the opponents were neutralizing him way easier.
Did he create 2-3 actions at all against Atletico over 360 minutes in a Cl?

Again, with Msn, Iniesta, Busquets (and Alves).



A lot of dribbles last season came at the center of the pitch against attackers and midfielders and not against true defenders, when he is dropping deep and dribbles past opponent's attacking players while trying to create, right?

Stats don't tell everything.

this man lost his mind long time ago

 

[DonAK]

Let's trade Messi with Lukaku to keep BBZ happy.

 

[Judoman]

During Msn, he had better attacking partners than under Pep.
Plus he still had Iniesta, Busquets and Alves.
Only Xavi was missing.

Yet, the opponents were neutralizing him way easier.
Did he create 2-3 actions at all against Atletico over 360 minutes in a Cl?

Again, with Msn, Iniesta, Busquets (and Alves).



A lot of dribbles last season came at the center of the pitch against attackers and midfielders and not against true defenders, when he is dropping deep and dribbles past opponent's attacking players while trying to create, right?

Stats don't tell everything.

First, rate those teams Messi played in based on your yesterdays rating of him. Than we can discuss this further. Mentioning 1 game is pointless.

 

[DonAK]

Messi has definitely lost some explosivity which helped him get past multiple players 1v1 after each other on free will.

His dribbling is still insanely good, but where he would get past 3 and even 4 players if he wanted it's 2 and maybe 3 now.

It's all natural though. Even CR lost a step and is playing more centrally than ever for a reason.

As for why his dribbling success rate is higher then it's because he's a smarter player now and loses the ball even less. He knows he cannot go on random dribbling raids anymore where the chance for losing possession is higher.

 

[Judoman]

So let me ask you, which version do you prefer...faster or smarter?

 

[BBZ8800]

I don't get what is questionable in a part that Messi is older and lost some of his skills which are related with youth, pace, stamina, agility.

You know guys, Xavi went through this also.
Iniesta also.
Busi currently.
Suarez currently.

Or have they all played weaker after 30+ age only due to a weaker team around them and not due to a physical decline?

Is Busi slower than ever today due to teammates? Or is he just old?
Was Iniesta granny in last seasons due to teammates or due to him aged early and badly?

 

[Judoman]

The thing that s questionable is, that you mentioned CL performance-s, without mentioning the quality of the people around him. I think that is crucial. You think that, somehow his level is not sufficient for CL trophy, which is absurd.
This also applies to any comparison with CR7 in resent years. As long as Messi had better or equal team, Barca were dominant and in LA liga, we still are. It says a lot, that we can be beat only in the short term (2 games) and that this
is much harder on longer time frames.

Stamina and mobility are not part of the natural decline procedure, at least not at same rate as speed and acc. He probably did loose some of his speed and acc., but at the same time he gained IQ and some technical skills (FK).
So all in all, i don t agree with the notion, that he declined as a complete player. He just isn t as hungry as he was.

 

[AndreC]

So let me ask you, which version do you prefer...faster or smarter?

Messi has always been smart.
Now he is smarter, but also lazier.
Before he was faster, but also angrier.

Lets assume that now he is wiser, slower, has less stamina and motivation (age affects physical and psychological).
His biggest virtue was and is when he decides by himself and do it (his younger version allowed him to do it a lot more times(much more stamina and pace), not being dependent on other players to determine victory or defeat. When older one depends more on others.

He is not the alien from the past anymore( His last alien year was 2015 and my personal favorite). Anyone who watches him play notices the difference. Watching him play is not nearly as exciting as before.
After 2015 the signings were horrible (Aleix Vidal, Arda, Gomes, Paulinho, etc/ old, ) while key players Alves, Pedro Rodriguez, Xavi, Iniesta were leaving or not performing great due to advanced age. The squad declined in quality to an unacceptable level. Messi hid it a little, with performances that led to domestic titles, but without surprise not enough for the champions league.

I am very happy with the recent signings: Coutinho, Lenglet, Arthur, Malcom, Dembele. Although im ceptical regarding Ernesto Valverde.

 

[BBZ8800]

The thing that s questionable is, that you mentioned CL performance-s, without mentioning the quality of the people around him. I think that is crucial. You think that, somehow his level is not sufficient for CL trophy, which is absurd.
This also applies to any comparison with CR7 in resent years. As long as Messi had better or equal team, Barca were dominant and in LA liga, we still are. It says a lot, that we can be beat only in the short term (2 games) and that this
is much harder on longer time frames.

Stamina and mobility are not part of the natural decline procedure, at least not at same rate as speed and acc. He probably did loose some of his speed and acc., but at the same time he gained IQ and some technical skills (FK).
So all in all, i don t agree with the notion, that he declined as a complete player. He just isn t as hungry as he was.

Regarding peak, getting older, losing physical abilities and gaining experience-based skills, we talked about that over the years, but let's repeat some scientific studies one more time:
http://www.espn.com/soccer/blog/tactics-and-analysis/67/post/3056495/soccer-age-curves-show-goalkeepers-and-central-defenders-peak-latest

Wingers tend to peak and decline the earliest. Wide attackers under the age of 23 play more minutes than U-23 players at other positions, but wide attackers over 30 are much rarer than strikers or center-backs of an equally advanced age. While most of the curves are well on the downslope by 30, the curve for center-backs by contrast doesn't really begin to decline until 31 or 32.

This suggests a general rule. Players tend to get slower and generally lose athleticism as they age, but they also gain skills and know-how to balance that out. Positions that require the most athleticism are a young person's game, whereas older players will more often be found at positions that most prize guile.

(Ranked from the most to the least "age-sensitive" positions: Wide attacking midfielder, central attacking midfielder, full-back, central midfielder, striker, center-back, goalkeeper.)

It's extremely difficult to play midfield in the modern game without peak athletic skills. At striker or center-back, a player who adds skill and guile may hang on for much long as his athleticism declines. One way players can thus buck their aging trends is by moving positions, just as Javier Mascherano extended his career by moving from central midfield to center-back; likewise, Cristiano Ronaldo subtly moved to a "true" striker role after years as a hybrid winger.
Players can do this by developing other skills to make up for what they lose. Different skills, then, have different aging curves, which can help to predict more specifically how player production will evolve over the course of a career.

One thing this age curve can help with is roster planning for the future. Right now, Chelsea have the Premier League's top scoring striker in Diego Costa, as well as highly-touted prospect Michy Batshuayi in reserve. Batshuayi, now 23, averaged nearly four shot attempts per 90 minutes last season in Ligue 1, while the 28-year-old Costa has averaged a little over three Sh/90 with Chelsea. Costa, however, has been scoring more goals.

Such a pattern of high shot rates with lower conversion at a young age is common with forwards. The aging curve for attacking players shows a tendency for players to take fewer shots as they age, but to increasingly get on the end of better chances and therefore make up the difference. A player's skill at getting quality shots peaks around 26-27 years old.

It's expected that midfielders will add other, more subtle skills over their careers to balance out the loss of the speed that allows them to win one-on-one contests in the open field.

It should be noted, however, that just as goal-scoring rates peak in the mid-to-late 20s, so likewise do assist rates. The following chart looks at two measures of creativity, expected assists and the rate of progressive passing, defined as "passes that drive an attacking move forward into space.

While the rate of expected assists falls off quickly after 28, creative players may still be productive members of their teams. A player's rate of progressive, attacking passes increases until 28 years old; even in a player's early 30s, his numbers remain competitive.

The age curve is a powerful tool for analysis because it can not only give a broad sense of when a player may decline but it also can also provide insight into which skills might be least affected by usual physical decline. While shot-taking, tackling and dribbling will likely fall off, more refined skills like creative passing and finding space for big chances can keep a player going past the usual peak of 26 or 27 years old.

https://www.realclearscience.com/journal_club/2015/06/25/this_is_when_athletes_hit_their_peak_109280.html

For many of us, the hump comes too soon. We reach the apex of our physical abilities around age thirty, then it's downhill from there.

Elite athletes peak even earlier, according to a new systematic review published in the journal Sports Medicine.
Sian Allen and Will Hopkins, based out of the Sports Performance Research Institute in New Zealand, poured through the scientific literature to ascertain the age at which athletes competing in various sports hit peak competitive performance. Here's what they found:

- For sprints, jumps, and throws, men and women hit their peak around 25 years of age.
- For sprint swimming events, men peak around 24 years and women peak at roughly 22 years. Endurance swimmers peak about a year earlier for both sexes.
- Male and female marathoners are at their best at ages 30 and 29, respectively.
- Male and female triathletes peak at 27-years-old.
- Men and women competing in the Ironman triathlon, which consists of a 2.4-mile swim, a 112-mile bicycle ride, and a 26.2-mile run, are at their best at the ages of 32 and 34, respectively.
- Professional hockey players perform best between the ages of 27 and 28.

Generally, the authors noticed that athletes competing in "sprint" events requiring explosive power peak much sooner than athletes competing in endurance or game-oriented events, perhaps because older athletes are able to use experience and savvy to their advantage.

https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-sports-analytics/jsa0021

Conclusion
Modern professional soccer players are finely tuned athletes that perform at a very high level physically. They do so despite an increasingly demanding and crowded calendar of competitions and games. Part of the credit for this goes to clubs, who over the years have invested considerably in sports science support infrastructure – from modern training facilities, to fitness and diet professionals, to performance analytics capabilities – to monitor, elevate and sustain player performance (Anderson and Sally, 2013; Williams, 2013).

But even with state-of-the-art fitness regimen, nature will surely have its say on the limits of player performance. This paper has examined one aspect of this, namely the optimal age for performance. The results show that the average player peaks between ages 25 and 27. This represents perhaps a younger and narrower age band than the widely considered peak age of mid to late 20 s. But in line with conventional wisdom, forwards peak earlier than defenders. They most likely peak earlier than midfielders as well, although in one model the two groups are found to peak around the same age (25 years).

 

[Judoman]

I m aware of the concept of aging, but thanks for posting interesting articles.

I guess you will ignore the first part of the post...

 

[Mitchell1978]

During Msn, he had better attacking partners than under Pep.
Plus he still had Iniesta, Busquets and Alves.
Only Xavi was missing.

Yet, the opponents were neutralizing him way easier.
Did he create 2-3 actions at all against Atletico over 360 minutes in a Cl?

Again, with Msn, Iniesta, Busquets (and Alves).



A lot of dribbles last season came at the center of the pitch against attackers and midfielders and not against true defenders, when he is dropping deep and dribbles past opponent's attacking players while trying to create, right?

Stats don't tell everything.

Stats tell more then you inventing numbers too whatever suits your argument.

 

[BBZ8800]

The thing that s questionable is, that you mentioned CL performance-s, without mentioning the quality of the people around him. I think that is crucial. You think that, somehow his level is not sufficient for CL trophy, which is absurd.
This also applies to any comparison with CR7 in resent years. As long as Messi had better or equal team, Barca were dominant and in LA liga, we still are. It says a lot, that we can be beat only in the short term (2 games) and that this
is much harder on longer time frames.

Stamina and mobility are not part of the natural decline procedure, at least not at same rate as speed and acc. He probably did loose some of his speed and acc., but at the same time he gained IQ and some technical skills (FK).
So all in all, i don t agree with the notion, that he declined as a complete player. He just isn t as hungry as he was.

I m aware of the concept of aging, but thanks for posting interesting articles.

I guess you will ignore the first part of the post...

I have wrote lots of times, people are simplifying things and looking for a scapegoat in one thing.

For years, why are we weaker?
People will reply: due to a weaker midfield.
Fine.
But what about also: key players are older, less motivation, lack of a mental strength, lack of physical skills for years, no aggression, no thugs, no leaders.

So, yes, Rakitic is not as good as prime Xavi-Iniesta, but we are weaker in 10s of other aspects also.

Now, go back to your question, NO, imo Messi is not weaker ONLY due to a midfield being weaker.
He is weaker due to a mix of a lot of factors:
1. weaker teammates
2. opponents figured out our Pep's style (and all later versions and copies of that style). If figured out is not the right word, then use: the learned how to cause us more problems than in 2010 both in defense and in attack compared to then.
3. Messi aged
4. Messi lost a lot of motivation
5. Messi moves less off the ball
6. Messi defends less
7. Messi works less hard

It works both ways.
Messi suffers due to weaker teammates.
But our results (in a CL) also suffer due to Messi having less crazy-matchwinning solo actions out of nowhere.

If Messi had just 1 crazy solo-action goal in any of matches vs Atletico, Atletico or Roma, we would reach semis of a final later.
I mean, in 2011, on this night, Messi played with Pedro and Bojan (lol) in attack.
Out of 4 goals vs Arsenal, the first one was a solo action (and a mistake from defenders), not too much involvement from teammates.
2nd goal was some sort of a normal team action.
3rd goal was a simple counter and a cool finish.
4th goal was awesome Xavi's pass.

Now, remember that in the last 13 quarters, semis and finals of a CL where Messi played, he scored in only 1 out of 13 matches.
He didn't score in 12 out of 13 big matches in the last 5 years.

Ok, Rakitic sucks, people will say.
But he had even MSN in those years, then Busi, old Iniesta.
It is not as if no one was able to give him a nice pass here and there.
But what lacked in majority of those matches (except against Bayern 2015) was that crazy solo action: when Messi takes the ball, dribbles past 2-3-4 players and scores from the edge of a box.
Today, he can't dribble with such an ease anymore.
He is surrounded with 2-3 opponents faster.
He lacks a few miliseconds in speed and is tacked easier.
So, yes, the midfield is weaker, but also Messi can't do wizzardish crazy solo actions out of nowhere anymore, to save our asses.

My personal view on him is:
In the past, regardless of his teammates, when we were in troubles, he was able to take the ball and create something from nothing.
Regardless if he was at the center of a pitch or at the edge of a box.
While today, when he can't dribble with such ease anymore, he relies less on himself and needs more help from teammates in terms of movements, passes, good team actions etc.

That's not an attack on Messi.
Just facts of life.
He is older and lost some parts of his alien-ish skills due to weaker pace, weaker acceleration, weaker stamina:
4 goals vs Arsenal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5m8OS0BydgI

Stats tell more then you inventing numbers too whatever suits your argument.

Interesting.
Ontopic, do you think that Messi lost some of his skills due to ageing?
(Like any other human ever in a history).

 

[Judoman]

I have wrote lots of times, people are simplifying things and looking for a scapegoat in one thing.

For years, why are we weaker?
People will reply: due to a weaker midfield.
Fine.
But what about also: key players are older, less motivation, lack of a mental strength, lack of physical skills for years, no aggression, no thugs, no leaders.

So, yes, Rakitic is not as good as prime Xavi-Iniesta, but we are weaker in 10s of other aspects also.

You are not blameless in that regard. You are often taking one sided aproach with your evaluations. The answer is simple, we are weaker, because
the managment didn t do their job. Once you realize you have a goat in your team, your job is to maximize his trophy production. Our board-s didn t.
First we had defence line issues, than there were/are midfield issues and hopefully this will not be followed by attack line issues. Magament sleept on sucess of Pep s era. They didn t
secure quality replacements/hungry young guys soon enough. Realistic quality of our team is sliding down in the last years. I do expect progress this season with the new aditions settling in.

Now, go back to your question, NO, imo Messi is not weaker ONLY due to a midfield being weaker.
He is weaker due to a mix of a lot of factors:
1. weaker teammates
2. opponents figured out our Pep's style (and all later versions and copies of that style). If figured out is not the right word, then use: the learned how to cause us more problems than in 2010 both in defense and in attack compared to then.
3. Messi aged
4. Messi lost a lot of motivation
5. Messi moves less off the ball
6. Messi defends less
7. Messi works less hard

Messi is not weaker. His production is not weaker. What is weaker is team s performance. I can summarise your list to 1. bingo 2. see point 1 and 3-7. Messi lack of hunger, which is something we all agree on.

It works both ways.
Messi suffers due to weaker teammates.
But our results also suffer due to Messi having less crazy-matchwinning solo actions out of nowhere.

It would work both ways if his production was lower. It is not. If your goal is to win the CL and you are counting on him making crazy solo goals and win it by himself, while not providing quality team around him...well that just doesn t make sence does it?
It s wishfull thinking and i would call that lazy logic. If your argument of his decline is "lack of solo goals", than you don t have an argument.

 

[Mitchell1978]

Interesting.
Ontopic, do you think that Messi lost some of his skills due to ageing?
(Like any other human ever in a history).

Off course he has lost some explosiveness, athletic ability, pace but he's still explosive (far above average) and still has better then average topspeed (pace or the ability to maintain your speed was never his main strength). Vision, decisionmaking and playmaking are still at peak level ability.

But people go on and on about his motivation, his workrate. I don't believe there's much change in these things. He never had great workrate (anybody who has read books about Messi knows people have been complaining about his lack of workrate and defensive contributions since he was with Barca B and C) and his average km per game has been about the same (around 8 to 8,5 km/game) since he moved to the false 9 position in 2010. Maybe he moves less without the ball and more with it, its possible but i doubt there's much difference.

Same thing about motivation. How do you measure that? For on thing you can look at his body, since 2015 he has been thinner then he was in his early and midtwenties meaning he's following a stricter diet. Its something a lot of athletes do when they age (maybe not Suarez) to be able to maintain the ability to perform. But this shows he's certainly willing to take care of himself more to be able to perform at a top level. I think he paces himself more now, looking to exert himself when he can really help the team but to conclude he is less motivated, i disagree.
He has also become more stoic as he ages, some people can't relate to that but i see that as a plus, showing a man who is maturing.

Anyway, to me he's past his peak (which was 2010-13 and the first season under Enrique 14-15) but he's still very much into his prime (which is not the same thing as peak) and we all should be happy we can still enjoy him play for a couple more seasons and not bitch about petty things.

 

[BBZ8800]

Off course he has lost some explosiveness, athletic ability, pace but he's still explosive (far above average) and still has better then average topspeed (pace or the ability to maintain your speed was never his main strength). Vision, decisionmaking and playmaking are still at peak level ability.

But people go on and on about his motivation, his workrate. I don't believe there's much change in these things. He never had great workrate (anybody who has read books about Messi knows people have been complaining about his lack of workrate and defensive contributions since he was with Barca B and C) and his average km per game has been about the same (around 8 to 8,5 km/game) since he moved to the false 9 position in 2010. Maybe he moves less without the ball and more with it, its possible but i doubt there's much difference.

Same thing about motivation. How do you measure that? For on thing you can look at his body, since 2015 he has been thinner then he was in his early and midtwenties meaning he's following a stricter diet. Its something a lot of athletes do when they age (maybe not Suarez) to be able to maintain the ability to perform. But this shows he's certainly willing to take care of himself more to be able to perform at a top level. I think he paces himself more now, looking to exert himself when he can really help the team but to conclude he is less motivated, i disagree.
He has also become more stoic as he ages, some people can't relate to that but i see that as a plus, showing a man who is maturing.

Anyway, to me he's past his peak (which was 2010-13 and the first season under Enrique 14-15) but he's still very much into his prime (which is not the same thing as peak) and we all should be happy we can still enjoy him play for a couple more seasons and not bitch about petty things.

How do I measure motivation?
I mean, aren't those basic human psychology principles and common things in life?

If Liverpool hasn't won EPL for 30 years: they are eager to win it currently.
Imagine if they will win it in 2018/2019 season.

Do you think that their motivation to win a 2nd trophy in 2019/2020 will be 100% equally the same, as CURRENTLY after not winning it for 30 years?
I am not saying that they will walk on a pitch with zero motivation in 2020...
But their motivation will be LOWER than TODAY.
it is irrelevant whether it will drop from 100% to 90% or 80%, the point is: once when you achieve something which you have been dreaming for years, you will be mentally drained.
And you will either never reach a similar level of motivation or you will need a few years to recharge your batteries.

Haven't you heard 100s of times in sport how some team was hungrier for a success?
Or how often it is better to sell older, unmotivated players and buy, younger, hungrier ones?

Pique?
Do you think that he is as equally as motivated to win another CL like he was in 2009?
Busquets, the same?
Coaches said often after winning big trophies how they need some time off to recharge their batteries (even in the sense of motivation).

On a personal level:
I have never been to a Camp Nou match.
Do you think that it will have a stronger impact on me when I will watch the 1st match ever, or when I will watch the 8th match in my life?
Were you more emotional when Barca won the 1st CL in your life (2006 for me), or in 2011, when we have achieved it for the 3rd time?
Yes, I was happy in 2011 and in 2015, but nothing can compare to the first time when we have won it.
When you kissed a girl or had sex for the first time, were you equally as excited while waiting and anticipating for the 1st time and while waiting for the 8th time?

Messi with Argentina.
Do you think that winning a World cup today in 2018 (after waiting for it a whole life, and suffering a lot of problems, fights, pressure, emotions) would be the same for him, as winning it for the 2nd time in 4 years?
What do you think in which trophy (during matches) would he be more emotionally invested, more motivated and giving everything what he can?
The first, life-changing one, or trophies after that one?
In the first attempt it is: I would give everything to win and I will bleed on a field if needed.
4 years later, after you won the first World cup, you will have the attitude:
Ok, I will try to win it again.
If it happens=happens.
If not=we have already won it once.
In the first attempt=it is a matter of life and death, your career defining achievement.
Later it is just a bonus, to some extent.
Now, imagine winning a CL for 5 times.
Do you think a player is as equally as motivated as in 2006 or 2009?

People often reply: but they are professionals, blah blah.
Yes, but they are also humans with same brains and DNA like you and me.
When you achieve something huge for the first time, for 99% of people, it will have a bigger impact on you than achieving the same thing for the 5th time.

In that sense, I am not saying that Messi or Pique don't want to win a CL in 2019.
But in 2006, Messi was giving 120%.
In 2009 also 120%, since he was injured in semis and a final of 2006.
On the other hand, can you say that a current, old, father Messi who walks and sulks on a pitch is giving 120% in every single match?
Sorry, I can't.
I would rate it like 50-90% in majority of CL matches, compared to his younger self.

And again, that is not an attack, but a fact of life and psychology.

So:
1. every single footballer ever will lose pace after the age 28
2. every single footballer ever will lose a part of his motivation once when he achieves the biggest trophies in football

No offense, but I don't get how someone can argue simple facts of life like losing physical skills and losing motivation after winning absolutely everything in sport?