SO who do you think is gonna play in the semis?
I believe in patterns & odds as i explained to several people on twitter ....
- rule of the 26/28...
- The freshest not the in-form
- historical patterns
see i'm a betting man so it's a fun thing to do
I can proudly say i predicted Italy to win the world cup (a final every 12 year , a win every 24 year ) & Holland reaching the final in 2010 ...
So the first obvious rule is the star should be within the age pattern of 26 - 28 .. that's been the case most of the time.. Paolo Rossi , Maradona , Romario , Zidane , Ronaldo, Pirlo & Buffon , Iniesta /Villa etc
Above that age you are usually too old , below you are too young .. you need to have your main man/men in this age bracket
Than you have the freshest not the inform .. back in 98 France was winners but Real Madrid were the CL winners , 2002 Ronaldo came almost from 2 years layoff to take the WC by storm , Italy was coming from another scandal in 2006... France their opponents their star Zidane was playing for nothing due to imminent retirement
2010 Inter Milan won everything , led by their star man Sneijder who met his compatriot Robben in the final of the CL yet they lost to the more fresh Spain who were also at the right age (see rule 1 )
Than you have the historical pattern which usually describe the usual but not absolute like Italy winning a WC every 24 years coming from a scandal or South Americans always win in South America & Europe always win in Europe ... of course broken in the 50's by Brazil and Europe managed to win the one in Africa as well as now you have more countries unlike before like Brazil winning in Korea & Japan etc
So by those simply laws i excluded Spain (Iker, Xavi , Xabi , Iniesta etc all out of this age ) all coming from a long season not fresh (Remember Dinho winning the CL in 2006 & showing crap in the WC a month later ? does it ring a bell after today ? )
I also excluded Brazil (As winners ) due to historical reason of the 1950 world cup & the pressure of failure that hunted all the participants especially those culprits of the final defeat against Uruguay.. Flavia can tell you how they view the 1950 Maracana disaster final and how the keeper & others kept being taunted & on the hate list till they died ..I don't know how far Neymar the 22 year old can take it at later stages.. i think we all saw how Marcelo reacted after the own goal.. it won't be nice & it will get worse later one as the KO commence ...
So the semi-final
I think England will be one , Brazil will be one ... Germany (maybe ) & maybe Argentina...
reasons , simply England is Fresh .. no team (except Chelsea ) in the later stages .. even most the players are coming from a more than great season & fresh (See Liverpool ones ) , no pressure from the press or fans (Truly underdogs ) .. Hodgson is experiences abroad and that's something missing from most English managers before him .. in a weather condition like that players like Sterling , Sturridge .. etc will do well
Brazil will be one , it's their home unless disaster struck early i doubt that but they will be in the semi-final at least
Argentina.. Messi has the right age bracket to be his WC... not only that he is fresh .. didn't have a long or tiring season & we've seen players like him coming from similar seasons do wonders (back to see Zidane in 2006 with Real Madrid that year or Maradona in 1986 was his worst year in terms of numbers with Napoli scoring just 13 goals & playing just 31 games )
So if he regain his form i can see this to be his WC year.. he also has all the Maradona like crew around him in Valdano = Higuain , Di Maria = Burruchaga...
Germans are the 4th spot... see back in the 80's it was my first football experiences & i was raised & seen the fact that football is a simple game everybody play it & the Germans win it
(not really ) .. however they never give up.. 1980 Euro winners , WC 82 finalist , WC 86 finalist , WC 90 winners
now see the current ones WC 2002 finalist , WC 2006 semi-finalist , WC 2010 Semi-finalist ... .. it's bound to happen one WC .. moreover
Mr. Ozil (about the right age ) like Messi coming from a mediocre season and most of the team players came from no CL final & many play in one club.. hell even Khedira is almost rested with just few games off his belt ... they are fresh & have the unit factor like England Liverpool guys
Of course i could be all wrong .. its football after all
England? Gio, are you serious?
Im bookmarking this post.
Trust me i had so many people not believing it .. i personally didn't believe myself except when i assessed their chances ... not saying they will win (they might who knows !? ) but they will go far this time