CR7 has no chance of winning.
Chelsea won CL, but can't name much players who stand out, except for Mendy, Cante and Jorginho (who also won Euro 2020). Jorginho will definitely get some votes, but winning is out of discussion.
Messi won his first international trophy with Argentina, which is a landmark moment, otherwise it was an okayish season for him at Barca. Will need to step up his game at PSG until the end of the year.
Lewa deserved the award last year, but it was cancelled. Broke the goalscoring record in Bundesliga, but besides that there is nothing more to his record. This season he keeps up the scoring level, but there is an another award for this category, you know.
In my mind it's 60/40 for Messi vs. Lewa. But giving a 7th Ballon d'Or to Messi will end the whole CR7 rivalry, so to be realistic and end this confusing analysis, I expect journalist to give the award to Lewa.