Real Madrid winning the CL with this football would be up there with the biggest miracles in that competition's history. Comparable to 04 Porto, 91 Zvezda, 86 Steaua and other campaigns of that kind.
Madrid 22 and 24 were on a completely different level. This Madrid has arguably the worst pair of fullbacks of all top teams in Europe right now. Out of four centrebacks only Rudiger is reliable (one is coming back from a long injury, other is an unexperienced kid who's not all that either, the third is literally a defensive midfielder who doesn't know how to play CB at all).
On top of that there is no signs of mentality bursts that used to bail them out most of the time. Several times this season it looked like they might be on the verge of turning it around yet absolutely nothing happened in the end. This alone is bigger than any problems of tactical or personnel structure because last two UCL wins were mostly fueled by this remontada and fluke wins scheme.
Their midfield has very little creativity to it and is filled with players of similar profiles. Their attack is realistically the only thing that could make it happen but then again it is consisted of 3 left wingers in Vini, Mbappe and Rodrygo and a guy who is borderline useless without the goalscoring role in Jude.
Completely different story if the football improves though. If somehow Carlo finds a solution to their defensive problems and fine tunes the attacking potential he has. But he has been trying that since start of the season and hasn't really moved so far.