Btw, is it possible to get the play-off with a draw in the last game?
Yes.
Ran through a few of the permutations for Argentina and it still likely remains win and they go through so I would say they still like 90% control their destiny.
Man oh man though, this shit is nuts. The crucial game really is Peru-Colombia while Chile and Columbia are really in must-win scenarios and they are both playing away. The danger team is Paraguay! They will most likely beat Venezuela and a loss for Colombia and Chile sees them see through to the playoff spot while Chile and Columbia crash out. This shit is CRAZY, b. If Chile get smashed by Brazil say 3-0, they could face elimination if Columbia loses say 1-0 and Argentina wins. I'm counting Uruguay in 2nd bc they will win so it could look like:
1. Brazil 41 pts, +27 GD
2. Uruguay 31 pts, +12 GD with a 2-0 win over Bolivia
3. Peru 28 pts, 27 GF
4. Argentina 28 pts, 17 GF
5. Paraguay 27 pts
Out: Chile and Colombia 26 pts
But they really can't tie at Quito. They are fucked and are out if either Peru wins or Colombia-Peru ends up as a draw. Chile just can't lose big and they should be okay. Only thing they can hope for if they draw is Chile to lose, and Colombia and Paraguay winning.
Drama.