Champions League

[FinBarcelonafan]

But it doesn't sound so bad if our chance is still 33% for example.

 

[fergus90]

1% chance, 0% faith.

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

1% chance, 0% faith.

Improved version of the quote. Pretty fitting.

 

[fergus90]

Saving the other 99% for Rangers away in a few Thursdays time.

 

[KingLeo10]

Yeah, not sure if you can add them together.

We need to consult [MENTION=4451]Birdy[/MENTION]

If the two events are independent (I'm not sure this argument can be made), then the probability is as follows:

0.2 x 0.25 = 0.05 or 5% chance

If the two events are not independent, then it's P(Barca winning | Benfica not winning) * 0.25 (aka P(Benfica not winning)). We'd need a sampling distribution to find that first piece.

 

[fergus90]

In all seriousness, I'm looking forward to tomorrow nights challenge. Would be an immense confidence boost to the team if they can pull it off.

 

[Horatio]

If the two events are independent (I'm not sure this argument can be made), then the probability is as follows:

0.2 x 0.25 = 0.05 or 5% chance

If the two events are not independent, then it's P(Barca winning | Benfica not winning) * 0.25 (aka P(Benfica not winning)). We'd need a sampling distribution to find that first piece.

But now you are calculating the % of both Benfica losing and Barca winning happening.

FinBarca wants to know what is the opportunity of Barca advancing.


edit: nevermind. You addressed that below.

 

[Rassvet]

Total, 45%

If we win, 20%
They don't win 25%

Both can happen at the same time so I guess it would lower our chance?

Rassvet gonna have to teach you boys some math

Probability of us going through based on those percentage would be:

1 - .8(chance of Barca not winning)*.75(chance of Benfica winning) = 40%

 

[Birdy]

But now you are calculating the % of both Benfica losing and Barca winning happening.

FinBarca wants to know what is the opportunity of Barca advancing.

Then you have to add the probs of all the scenarios in which Barca advances,
which would be

Barca winning AND Benfica losing
Bara winning AND Benfica drawing
Barca drawing AND Benfica losing
Bara drawing AND Benfica drawing
Barca losing AND Benfica losing
Barca losing and Benfica drawing
Barca winning AND Benfica winning

I think that's all.
Kind of laborious to calculate

 

[Rassvet]

Then you have to add the probs of all the scenarios in which Barca advances,
which would be

Barca winning AND Benfica losing
Bara winning AND Benfica drawing
Barca drawing AND Benfica losing
Bara drawing AND Benfica drawing
Barca losing AND Benfica losing
Barca losing and Benfica drawing
Barca winning AND Benfica winning

I think that's all.
Kind of laborious to calculate

The only scenario where Barca don’t qualify though is if we don’t beat Bayern and Benfica wins. If you just give a percentage for those two things, the equation is pretty simple.

 

[Horatio]

The only scenario where Barca don’t qualify though is if we don’t beat Bayern and Benfica wins. If you just give a percentage for those two things, the equation is pretty simple.

siiiiuuuu

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

Rassvet gonna have to teach you boys some math

Probability of us going through based on those percentage would be:

1 - .8(chance of Barca not winning)*.75(chance of Benfica winning) = 40%

I will gladly take 40%. Thanks.

 

[KingLeo10]

Rassvet gonna have to teach you boys some math

Probability of us going through based on those percentage would be:

1 - .8(chance of Barca not winning)*.75(chance of Benfica winning) = 40%

This concept is correct for "advancing" but I was saying Barca and Benfica results are likely not independent of each other (due to internet and players/coaches knowing the score in the other game). That's why you can't just multiply the numbers. But with that said, I wouldn't expect the number to be much different.

 

[serghei]

Rassvet gonna have to teach you boys some math

Probability of us going through based on those percentage would be:

1 - .8(chance of Barca not winning)*.75(chance of Benfica winning) = 40%

You forgot to add the Dembele variable. which multiplies every probability by a factor of 2. So it's roughly 80%.

 

[KingLeo10]

The Bayern breaker is ready