Quite a few thoughts to share but most importantly, I am extremely confident in us cruising this game and I kinda think we might walk them. That said, if we do not play to our potential, we will be punished so as long as we play perfectly, I do not think they can handle our game.
For me, there are two key match-ups that will determine this leg: Busi vs. Ozil and Neymar vs. Bellerin.
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This is Ozil's heatmap against Leicester. This is indicative of how he plays, constantly overloading the wings to create a numerical advantage. Remember this goal? (sad thing is many won't):
[youtube]dhBhCEZfOoY[/youtube]
Who plays that pass and where does it come from?
Thus, the attacking midfielders (presumably Iniesta and Rakitic) must be aware of his movement and stay behind the ball until its in their half. This will allow Busquets to concentrate on cutting down the passing angles for him to force him to retreat the ball or play a long, speculative effort. If we can frustrate Ozil in the first 30 minutes of the game, he will start to fade and that will open up the midfield for us. Another key player we should exploit is Ramsey. He loves to bomb forward when they have the ball and if we can intercept the ball quickly off one of their attacks with him forward, Coquelin will be isolated in the center and that should allow space for Messi and Neymar to cut inside and exploit the space left by the CBs when Suarez pushes forward.
With Ozil in particular, he prefers to drift to the opponents left side naturally but the key is that Bellerin usually opens up space for him to operate in and with Neymar in the mix, Bellerin will really have to think twice any time he pushes forward because Neymar will destroy anyone if he has space. That leaves only a 2 on 2 with Iniesta and Alba vs Ozil and either Oxlade or Welbeck and as long as Iniesta can do a bit a of dirty work, we should be able to neutralize Ozil pretty effectively. I also really question if Bellerin will at all be able to handle Neymar 1 v 1. With the cumbersome Mertesacker backing him, who isn't fleet of foot, its going to be all on him to match Neymar step for step and with Neymar's trickery, I just think it will be asking too much, particularly since Mertesacker is so slow.
Rakitic will be really important too, but I think he can help lock down the right side of the field and frustrate Alexis, plus I'm sure Pique and Dani will know everything that Alexis will be up to after training with him for numerous years. Pique in particular has been in solid form.
Lastly, I would start Mathieu over Mascherano to deal with Giroud. His height will be needed but its also to save Mascherano for Walcott. He is the perfect player to mark Walcott and crucially Wenger played Walcott for 90 minutes against Hull and he rested players like Alexis and Giroud, at least partially, against Hull. So I will be really surprised if Walcott starts, so that is why I think Mathieu should get to nod over Mascherano, specifically due to this. Giroud do damage against Mascherano, no matter how good Mascherano plays, and I think Mathieu has at least proven that he can do a job like this against Giroud.
The most important thing for Arsenal is their first pass when they win the ball. The moment they continually turn the ball over quickly as they try to get out of their half and get pinned back in their half, is when the game is won for us. They
really struggled to do that against Bayern when they got mauled 5-1 this season and they also showed they have the capacity to have a meltdown in their park in the CL recently in the past. They rely heavily on Ozil for creativity in scoring chances for the front three and if we neutralize him the way I outlined, which we can, they do not have the offensively capability like we do when things aren't going to the game plan. Wenger is really going to miss Santi in this tie. If he had him in the midfield, it would be a lot closer, but I just don't think Coquelin and Ramsey can come anywhere close to controlling a game like Busi and Iniesta can and with Rakitic's steel and offensive spark as well, I just don't see a lot of ways they can realistically hurt us if we play anywhere close to our best game.
I'll go 4-1, Suarez with a brace.