UEFA posted their structure for the EURO cup next year, and me (as a statistician) had to look through it to see if it seems fair. In most cases it actually is fair, but this time it turned out that it wasn't. I noticed that Group E had a much harder path to reach the finals than any teams from any other group. Then I noticed that teams from group A had a much easier path than any other group. Basically, I had to dig deeper, and came up with the idea that I should write a report about it and send it to newspapers. But then again, no one would read it. So I figured I post the results here and hope that justice will prevail! If you don't want to look through the pdf, here are some results from the report that you might find interesting:
- http://imgur.com/25DsW8V - image showing the simulated probability of winning from the six different groups in the EURO 2016 (Teams from group E has an approximate 28% less chance of winning than teams from group A).
- Group A has the best outcome from the simulations, which could also be seen from just looking at the playoff-structure (the winners of group A) move on to face runner-ups in the quarter-finals.
- The playoff-structure is full of asymmetry (which FIFA and UEFA usually don't like).
- France is automatically put into group A.