Days of domination appear to be over at last
Gaby Marcotti
Conventional wisdom suggests that the gap between rich and poor has increased throughout European football both on the balance sheet and in terms of results. And the numbers bear this out.
From 1989 to 2004 you could be fairly confident that if you could average between 2.06 and 2.10 points per match, you’d win the title. In a 20-team league, that’s roughly between 78 and 80 points a season. That’s the average points per match gained by the champions in Europe’s five biggest leagues: Germany, Italy, England, Spain and France. And while it was heading upwards (it was 2.06 between 1989 and 1994, 2.07 in the five years after that and 2.10 between 1999 and 2004), the changes were remarkably slim.
Then something strange happened. Clubs began winning titles with far more points. Between 2004 and 2009 the average winner of a “big five” league title gained 2.23 points per game: nearly 85 points over a 38-game season.
You can come up with plenty of reasons for this. As the Champions’ League TV pot has grown, those clubs who regularly feature in the game’s biggest club competition benefited disproportionately from those who watch on TV (or have to play in the Europa League). Bigger clubs tend to have bigger and better stadiums as well and, as match-day income has risen (as marketing men figure out new ways of getting money from fans), this, too, has helped brand names. So has globalisation: it’s easier to “sell” Manchester United or Real Madrid in the Far East than it is to peddle Burnley or Málaga.
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Then there is the distribution of TV income. In Serie A, which traditionally was the most unequal (although that will change starting from 2011-12), the past five winners averaged 2.33 points per match. In France and Germany, where the distribution curve is much flatter, the winners averaged 2.12 and 2.16 respectively. Either way, with teams getting different-sized slices of the TV pie, success tends to breed success, if only because you can keep buying better players than the opposition.
But now something curious is happening. The league leaders — through Friday — have been a lot less dominant than the league winners of years past. Compare the five-year averages of the winners with the points per match of the present table-toppers and you’ll see it holds true in four of the five leading European leagues: Germany (down to 2.07 from 2.16), France (2.00 from 2.12), Italy (2.10 from 2.33) and England (2.22 from 2.38). A club’s points-per- match figure also tends to decline as the season wears on.
The one exception is La Liga, in which the exploits of Real Madrid and Barcelona — 2.54 points per match and level on points on Friday — mark an increase over Spain’s five-year average of 2.18.
Two questions arise. Why are the Continent’s best leagues becoming less lop-sided? And why isn’t this happening in Spain?
Taking the second one first, the explanation may have to do with Barcelona alreadybeing a freakishly good side who spent considerable amounts of money in the summer to get even better. In other words, they are a statistical outlier. Occasionally you’re going to get outstanding teams that blow up your averages. As for Real, they spent nearly £250 million last summer and are evidently reaping the benefits.
But why the drop-off in dominance from most of the Continent’s big guns? Well, it’s always risky to judge based on a single season, but perhaps — if there is a trend — it has to do with Europe’s bigger sides retooling after several years of overspending, particularly with an eye to the new “financial fair play” regulations Uefa is set to introduce. And maybe the smaller clubs are more willing to throw caution to the wind and show less respect to the big boys, many of whom are more used to opponents who defend in numbers.
Either way, it’s undeniable that we’re seeing the kinds of title races many thought would be a thing of the past. Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen — eighth and ninth last season respectively — are challenging Bayern Munich for the Bundesliga crown. As many as six clubs have a realistic chance of winning Le Championnat. Roma, a distant sixth last season, are one point behind Inter Milan in Serie A and AC Milan are closing in as well. The Barclays Premier League remains a three-horse race. And, while Barcelona and Real may be steamrolling everybody else in La Liga, it remains a fascinating race that promises to go to the wire.
So perhaps we ought just to sit back and enjoy it. If the trend has reversed itself, it can only make things more exciting. And, if this season is a blip and normal service resumes with the elites beating up on the cream puffs, at least we’ll be able to look back with fondness.
