The (few) options of Malaga not to suffer a decline and be the 'next Reus': questions and answers in crisis
We must wait for the next winter transfer market to be closed to be more categorical, but the possibility of an administrative decline in Malaga, right now, is not only real but also close. Too close to a historic club like Costa Costa. Do you have any possible arrangements? With the current management of the sheikh, no. The phrase that sums it up: if on a scale of 1 to 10 in the possibility of suffering an administrative decline the Reus was a 10, Malaga is 7.5.
What, at the moment, is the most optimistic scenario in Malaga?
If he manages to save the match ball in front of him, which remains to be seen, he would have to achieve sports permanence with the current players, facing having to sell at one of his heavyweights to get liquidity immediately and being sanctioned without signing for next season, 2020-21 , in which they would also have a much lower staff limit than now. All that, of course, unless they got a promotion to Primera with so few chips and losing one of their figures, or several. But, at this time, the file to Malaga for breaching its salary limit seems inevitable and will not be able to sign in the next campaign.
Do you have a chance to save yourself and not suffer an imminent administrative descent?
Any good sports manager, minimally professional and without relying on a capricious owner could "save" Malaga from here at the end of the year? Yes, sure. They have resources, players to sell, rights to the sale of Ontiveros, rocambolescas and uncertain options to win some money in a judicial fight with Lazio by Jony ... But they have to sell. Painful sports losses, no doubt, that would weigh the club a lot to maintain the category and its staff limit in the following two seasons, but could fix it.
What are those options?
Three. The first is a capital increase : that the sheikh contributes (or lends) money to the club. Around 6 million euros. It is not very realistic to think that a bank, knowing the reality of the team, will contribute them. Nor does Al Thani's attitude suggest that he will put money. Rather, I would have to think otherwise. Are they in time to make him come to reason? Yes, but they don't trust it too much. There is a thread to hope, but increasingly weak.
The second is the sale of assets. Players. Immediately. Surely the best of the template. If one of these two factors does not occur, they may not even end the season.
The last is the reduction of costs: an ERE and cut the remuneration of the Board of Directors (exceeding one million euros).
Does the ability demonstrated until today by the sheikh invite you to think that it will bring it forward?
Absolutely. No. He has not been able to make things worse in the last summer and does not seem to have good forecasts to change this trend. On the contrary: each movement inspires less confidence.
Malaga has a hard time paying around 15 million euros and its cap does not reach 10. With the fine and the files they would need about 6 million in total.
Malaga will suffer the opening of a file for how it has done things during the transfer market and the situation in which it has left several players without a card to go beyond the salary limits of staff. I already failed to meet them before the summer began, they knew it, they have been able to reorganize it ... They have not done it (rather they have not been allowed to do so).
Is it possible to be expelled before the end of the season?
At this time, taking into account the "Reus case" and the conditions that concur in the Andalusian, the reality is that they are not even guaranteed to end the season. The possibility, however, of solving things at least until February and ending the season, in a team with its resources, seems more optimistic than with the Catalan club.
The problem will come later: very likely to not sign in summer and with a very low staff limit. They have hired more players than they can afford and, some, still with First salaries. Malaga has a hard time paying around 15 million euros and its cap does not reach 10: the difference is huge.
On the positive side: they have not yet failed to pay. It would be difficult, for times, that even if they stopped paying right now they could not reach beyond February. If they sell in the winter market and get 3-5 million, they could end the season and try to save the furniture with the television from 2020-21 (as long as they don't descend, of course).
Is it the same as the case of Reus?
No. It would have to sell a player or several and make a profit of between 3-4 million euros to be able to clean up the accounts. And time is very limited. And, above all that, the administrative incapacity of the alleged "sheikh", which at this time is far from demonstrating the economic sufficiency that was supposed to him.
They have in front of a possible compensation of Lazio by Jony (in dispute with them for 12 possible millions), there is a company, Blubay, who wants to manage the club outside the sheikh and who says he can inject resources into the club, they can sell footballers, they are managing an ERE with which they will save on salaries ... None of these measures are really worth anything (except for a "donation or loan" by Bluebay), at this time, for uncertain reasons and for the urgent times that the club manages to Avoid an administrative descent.
Are there reasons for optimism?
Well, moderate. Of course you have to assume that the 2nd B has ceased to be a distant reality for a club that, due to a management that at times has been dire, is in a situation that does not correspond to it by history, hobby and resources. If they allow them to manage it well, they can save it without too many problems, but Malaga is now much closer to suffering an administrative decline than to compete in conditions in a professional league.
In addition, at a dramatic point for Malaga, the truth is that it is a much more palatable club for an investor than the Reus was, for example. At the last minute, saving it may even be a bargain , but again here you have the time against it: if an investor appears it will never be time to spare. The normal thing is that they do it when the desperate reality of a financial and sports ruin drastically lower their price .
What are the key dates?
It depends on when they began to default on payments. If players do not charge it is a quick process to receive a sanctioning file. "They spend" 15 and their limit is 9.9: it is not crazy to think about defaults if they fail to enter.
If the breaches were with the Treasury, the information takes longer to arrive, but they could also be known before the end of 19-20. That is why the solutions are to increase capital and sell assets: everything else ends, almost inevitably, by a penalty of decline to 2ªB.
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