How does BBZ pull all these hypothetical numbers and percentages from his ass all the time?
Literally every post he makes he'll say some BS like "let's say we waste 1 season" or "60% of the time this will work" or "out of 5 passes 3 will be unsuccessful."
Then he'll use these arbitrary numbers he formulated in his own head without using any actual empirical data to concoct some elaborate 2000 word theory that would leave the most acclaimed philosophers questioning their lives.
Lol.
Numbers are an example.
Without numbers, we have simplified posts on forum: a player XX needs to play all the time.
Do a math for yourself and just take, for example: Dembele, Coutinho, Semedo, Deulofeu, Alena this season.
Let's assume that in each match when you'll play with players who are here for a several seasons, you will play with 100% of your current strength.
In each match when you put a new guy in a lineup, your strength will drop from 100% to: ENTER your estimated %. Do you think that our strength drops to 99, 98, 97, 96, 95... 90, 80% etc
If you play 2 new guys, your team's strength drops even more.
Then count in how many matches per season you will play with a weakened team and try to estimate whether a risk is worth it or not.
Now, in each match when you don't play with 100% of your current strength, you are playing with a weakened team=to POSSIBLY GAIN something in the future (if a new guys turns good).
On the other hand, if you play a new guy and he turns into a fail, you wasted 5, 10, 20 or 30 matches when you played him and when a team played with a weakened team's strength.
If you played 2 guys who failed, both for 25 matches, you wasted between 25 and 50 matches on these 2 guys when you didn't play with your 100% of team's strength.
So, basically, each time when you buy a new guy (or play a B team youngster), you are gambling.
You are ruining your current team's strength with a hope that you will get something from that player in the future.
But then, to make these maths more fun, stats say that more Barca's signings will fail than will make it.
Also, way more B-team players will fail also.
Then, the next time when you'll play a new guy (with a potential) or a B-team guy, you should be aware (if you are learning from mistakes in the past) that playing with new guys is always a gamble and that you are weakening your first team each time when you play them (unless if they play awesome from the day1, which rarely happens).
When you sum all of this, you may understand easier WHY Semedo is getting less and less chances.
My numbers are just my estimation to explain this problem in a simpler way, in numbers.
Without that, you'll just have posts like:
User XX: Semedo should play. EV is dumb. How will Semedo improve if he won't play?
User XX2: Alena must play right away. EV is dumb. How will he improve if he won't play?
Then, they'll play for 10 matches, and let's say be average in the first 10 matches and we'll lose a lot of points.
User XX: Semedo must play. 10 matches is not enough, even though he was average till today.
The real question is: Ok, he should play. But for how much longer? How many points is worth to lose because of 1 player?
To add more fun, how many points is ok to lose when you are testing 5 new guys/Bteam players in 1 season?
Majority of posters act as if they have absolutely no clue about risks.
As if everything is just a win-win situation.
Like: play Dembele all the time, everything will be fine. There is nothing we can lose.
Play Semedo, everything will be fine. Play Alena, he will turn good, just play him. There is nothing we can lose.
Play both Semedo-Dembele. There is nothing we can lose.
I don't know a simpler way to explain this than in numbers.
Cause again, if not, we'll just have a bunch of win-win posts like: Semedo must play if we want him to succeed.
Well, yeah. He needs to play.
But he (and EVERY other guy EVER in Barca's shirt) will only get a certain amount of chances.
After some point (a number of matches or an amount of time), if you aren't reaching a desired level or if you haven't shown strong reasons why we should keep faith in you, Barca will always keep on looking for new solutions.
About empirical data:
Semedo played 24 matches.
He is average till now.
Stats and our history imply that players in his situation will get another season. If they won't improve, they'll be sold and a club will move on.
A word "potential" and how he can't improve if he is rotating with Roberto have nothing to do with an empirical data, but are romantic excuses by our fans who are afraid to hear the cold truth about a majority of players.
