Final, prefer them to play Bayern and us Liverpool or City (that tie is not done at all) in the semis.
Final is going to be huge for both clubs. Whoever wins has the best night in their history and whoever loses the worst. There has never been a Champions League final between fierce rivals like Barca and Madrid. The whole hugeness of the game and the anticipation of it is worth the risk of losing it.
Equal pressure for both teams. If we lose, Madrid win 3 in a row and make huge headlines (could see that record standing for a long time). If we win, we add another historic treble while Madrid gets nothing, and need to rebuild on a fucked up market. 3 trebles and 6 doubles, vs 0 trebles and 1 double. Great record for Barca to have over Madrid. And very hard to match.
With this approach, we have better chances in a final than a semifinal. This is not 2011 anymore.