Rodrygo

[BBZ8800]

Football today is alot about taking risks.
If you dont take the risks you can miss out on gems and with todays prices youll have to pay 10-20 times the money you could have gotten him for if he turns out good.
Its crap, but its how it is.

The thing with taking risks is that it has two outcomes:
1. if you take a risk and win, awesome
2. if you take a risk and lose, well, you'll end like in Gaspart's era with 100M (in current terms) lost for risks like Saviola, Geovanni and similar. And all titles lost after that, of course.

In cases like with this Rodrygo guy, do you know what will happen 99% likely:
1. we will buy him, then he will get loaned for 2-3 years. Or he will get Alenas and Minas treatment.
Then, in the next 2-3 years after the age 20-21, he will get Dembele's treatment with minutes here and there. Then we'll see replies like: he needs more playing time, he is young and he has a lot of potential.
In reality that means: if you buy that player today, in around 5 years he will start to perform at the level of a Barca's starter, ONLY if he actually makes it.
2. on the other hand, way more likely, as always: he will be too young in the first 2-3 years. Then he will start to play more and he will be not good enough.
Then after 4-5 years in total, we will sell him and move to the next Rodrygo and repeating the same cycle.

So, my point is: if you buy him today, we'll wait for 5 years only to get some "starter" level. I am not talking about Ronaldinho's level.
And even for that, we have probably 1/5 or 1/10 chances.

And then, in a club like Barca, where you need results right away, it is quite questionable:
1. whether it is better to buy a young 19 years old kid for 40-50M, pay wages and bonuses and wait for him for 5 years.
2. or JUST buy the same player after 5 years for 100M from some other club, when he is a somewhat finished product.

If my maths is right:
1. if we buy him now, that is a 50M transfer fee
2. let's say that his wages will be 4M per year. That means that Barca needs to pay 4M to him and 4M for taxes.
That means 8M per year from Barca's pockets.
So, in 5 years:
50M transfer fee+5x8M per year+some unknown bonuses, offtable payments and similar=and you have 90+ Millions spent on Rodrygo in 5 years.

And then, if you just go out and buy him for 100M in 5 years, it is really not the end of the world.
I know, there is always an option that a big club won't sell him.

But buying these kids isn't SUCH a good and CHEAP deal as it sounds when you read our forums.
For example, for Dembele, Arthur and Rodrygo, we will spend around 400-450M in the next 5 years, when you sum transfer fees, 3 wages (and taxes for wages), sign on fees and bonuses.
When you sum that up, we could have just bought two finished top3 players in the world, like Neymar/Mbappe in 5 years.

 

[MTL_Barca]

It can be worth it to sign young talents, just look at Gabriel Jesus who was paying great for City right from the start. No loans or years of waiting, he came there to fight for Kuns spot and Pep plays him in all the important games and he was only 19 too. It's not easy to do but you cant just say every player has to be loaned/benched till he is 23 and not every coach is like Valverde, there are coaches out there that trust a young player.

But idk about this guy and Vinicius, signing 16, 17 year old players is an even bigger risk and the price is just ridiculous. The fee for Arthur is already the max i would pay for a player from SA unless he's really killing it like Neymar did, Arthur at least has proven himself in SA. Leverkusen got Paulinho for 20M and that's a far more reasonable price for such a young talent than 50+. Like these players have to turn out incredible on a Mbappe kind of level for this to be worth it, because if they only grow up to be decent players then it's probably not too difficult to find players on the same level for under 100M even if the prices rise like they did the last years. And tbh i would gladly pay like 20-30M more in a few years to a) save that money now to strengthen the current squad and b) dont have to take the risk that the 50M are completely gone.

If anything i can kinda understand it in Reals situation because when they signed the kid for 45M they didn't really do much besides that so you might as well gamble a bit. Last summer they only loaned out James, signed Ceballos and that was pretty much it. We on the other side will sign Arthur, it looks like we go for a 100M Griezmann and probably another midfielder as well. Right after we signed Cou and Dembele for 250M. I don't really see us in a situation to splash the money on such a risky deal now, we need to sort out the squad for the next 1-2 years first, if that is done and we maybe for once did good in selling we might can think about something like that but not now.

 

[khaled_a_d]

I think you guys (in last 2 posts) forgetting that we are trying to get a 1st option on him. not like we are paid 50M for him right away.
We are just trying to ensure we won't miss the next G.Jesus

 

[BBZ8800]

It can be worth it to sign young talents, just look at Gabriel Jesus who was paying great for City right from the start. No loans or years of waiting, he came there to fight for Kuns spot and Pep plays him in all the important games and he was only 19 too. It's not easy to do but you cant just say every player has to be loaned/benched till he is 23 and not every coach is like Valverde, there are coaches out there that trust a young player.

I am not sure whether a nature of some of you is being overly optimistic or I am overly pessimistic, but why do people always mention one rare, successful example and stick to it?
We bought 10 Brasilians straight from Brasil in the 20 years and ONLY Neymar made it.
9 other guys failed.
Yet, people always say: but he could be the next Neymar.
He could be, but 90% statistically is that he will be the next no one.

The same with Jesus.
In the last 2 years there were probably 5-6 new the next big thing guys.
One of them made it, others failed.
And people will again reply: but he could be the the next Jesus.

Again, on every Jesus, you have 5 or 10 guys like Gabigol Barbosa, a 20 years old, bought in a summer of 2016 for 30M, as the next big thing.
He was a part of Brasilian Olympic Gold medalist team from 2016'.
In the next 2 years, he played only 9 matches for Inter and 1 match for Benfica, scoring 1 goal in 10 appearances.

In short, every new Brasilian kid coming straight from Brasilian league has (my estimation):
80% chances to turn into absolutely nothing in Europe
20% chances to turn into a starter

And then, if you spend 5x40M for 5 guys and spend 200M for transfer fees and 200-250 Millions for their wages and taxes over 5 years, and spending 400+ Millions in total, isn't it just easier to splash 150 or 200M on some proven 24-25 years old from a top European team?

Majority of guys here act as if these deals are more or less win-win deals, but when you put it on paper, they are not good deals at all.
Real Madrid, on the other hand is almost never paying 40-50M for unproven kids.
And they are winning CLs over and over.
But hey, let's stick to "Barca's way" of buying Brasilian kids straight from a Brasilian league for 20 years in a row.

 

[Porque]

I am not sure whether a nature of some of you is being overly optimistic or I am overly pessimistic, but why do people always mention one rare, successful example and stick to it?
We bought 10 Brasilians straight from Brasil in the 20 years and ONLY Neymar made it.
9 other guys failed.
Yet, people always say: but he could be the next Neymar.
He could be, but 90% statistically is that he will be the next no one.

The same with Jesus.
In the last 2 years there were probably 5-6 new the next big thing guys.
One of them made it, others failed.
And people will again reply: but he could be the the next Jesus.

Again, on every Jesus, you have 5 or 10 guys like Gabigol Barbosa, a 20 years old, bought in a summer of 2016 for 30M, as the next big thing. He was a part of Brasilian Olympic Gold medalist team from 2016'.
In the next 2 years, he played only 9 matches for Inter and 1 match for Benfica, scoring 1 goal in 10 appearances.

In short, every new Brasilian kid coming straight from Brasilian league has (my estimation):
80% chances to turn into absolutely nothing in Europe
20% chances to turn into a starter

and then, if you spend 5x40M for 5 guys and spend 200M for transfer fees and 200-250 Millions for their wages and taxes over 5 years, and spending 400+ Millions in total, isn't it just easier to splash 150 or 200M on some proven 24-25 years old from a top European team?

Majority of guys here act as if these deals are more or less win-win deals, but when you put it on paper, they are not good deals at all.
Real Madrid, on the other hand is almost never paying 40-50M for unproven kids.
And they are winning CLs over and over.
But hey, let's stick to "Barca's way" of buying Brasilian kids straight from a Brasilian league for 20 years in a row.

Agreed. But the way would football is globalised now, clubs don't have time to wait for the realities and thus are consistently competing for the next big thing.

Neymar made it but he was also South American player of the year, a Libertadores winner and various other personal accolades. We got him but we also broke the rules of the market for it and paid with transfer bans. If Neymar was coming through now we would have the competition of not just Madrid like before, but FifaPep and PSG. Even from 2013, it is a different market now.

So to adapt with this there has to be some kind of new strategy. 30-50m per year for those potential gems is the new 10-20m IF an elite club is going to Brazil.

IMO that would mean that next season is taken up with the signing of Arthur. But 10m now, to buy Rodrygo the season after for 50m all in would be a good deal if it has a clause. For example that we can pull out if his development isn't to our satisfaction over the next year, with Santos keeping that 10m.

The other side is that we need a manager who is willing to integrate these players. City has that in Pep, Madrid has Zidane, PSG will have it in Tuchel. If we don't have that then these players will have 3 better options. Go direct to a big 4 team that risks with youth, go to the second tier (Arsenal etc) who bet on youth or go to the development clubs (Dortmund, Monaco) who will guarantee you play and sell to the top 5 at a marked up fee for this development time.

 

[Luftstalag14]

BBZ, if he turns out to be good, there is no way he would only cost us 100m five years later, given the direction this crazy market is going and competition from other clubs, EVEN IF the selling club is willing to sell (to your point).

Also, what eastalished players can we buy nowadays? Coutinho took the life out of us to get, things will only be harder and a lot of more expensive as no top clubs will easily let go their stars. I would be extremely happy if we get Mbappe but it is not viable for now.

 

[MTL_Barca]

I am not sure whether a nature of some of you is being overly optimistic or I am overly pessimistic, but why do people always mention one rare, successful example and stick to it?
We bought 10 Brasilians straight from Brasil in the 20 years and ONLY Neymar made it.
9 other guys failed.
Yet, people always say: but he could be the next Neymar.
He could be, but 90% statistically is that he will be the next no one.

The same with Jesus.
In the last 2 years there were probably 5-6 new the next big thing guys.
One of them made it, others failed.
And people will again reply: but he could be the the next Jesus.

Again, on every Jesus, you have 5 or 10 guys like Gabigol Barbosa, a 20 years old, bought in a summer of 2016 for 30M, as the next big thing.
He was a part of Brasilian Olympic Gold medalist team from 2016'.
In the next 2 years, he played only 9 matches for Inter and 1 match for Benfica, scoring 1 goal in 10 appearances.

In short, every new Brasilian kid coming straight from Brasilian league has (my estimation):
80% chances to turn into absolutely nothing in Europe
20% chances to turn into a starter

And then, if you spend 5x40M for 5 guys and spend 200M for transfer fees and 200-250 Millions for their wages and taxes over 5 years, and spending 400+ Millions in total, isn't it just easier to splash 150 or 200M on some proven 24-25 years old from a top European team?

Majority of guys here act as if these deals are more or less win-win deals, but when you put it on paper, they are not good deals at all.
Real Madrid, on the other hand is almost never paying 40-50M for unproven kids.
And they are winning CLs over and over.
But hey, let's stick to "Barca's way" of buying Brasilian kids straight from a Brasilian league for 20 years in a row.

So what? Did i say we should sign kids from Brazil or why do you come up with that rant? You just cant make a general statement like that. Even if only 20% make it that's still 20%, so it's not like every young player doesn't get minutes till he's 23+, it's about finding the right players. Like City did with Jesus.

It's also not exclusive to SA talents, 20yo players can make it at a big club just like older players can flop. The risk is higher and i'm not a fan of these kind of transfers for that reason but just saying there is no chance he'll be good enough, won't get minutes etc is as dumb as the "next Neymar" shit people come up with as soon as a young brazilian scores a goal.

 

[SeloBarca]

Gremio vs Santos tonight after the Clasico. Great chance to watch Arthur and Rodrygo.

Is that in 40 mins?
Have to see if i have any channel showing it

 

[Porque]

Is that in 40 mins?
Have to see if i have any channel showing it

It is.

 

[xXKonan]

According to Sport and MD's front covers Segura is in Brazil trying to sign Rodrygo.

 

[Saladin]

According to Sport and MD's front covers Segura is in Brazil trying to sign Rodrygo.

Segura is such a boob, let him stay in Brazil indefinitely for all I care.

 

[raki]

According to Sport and MD's front covers Segura is in Brazil trying to sign Rodrygo.

That makes no sense

 

[DonAK]

Sign a midfielder ffs

 

[xXKonan]

That makes no sense

It's the club trying to tie down a talented winger like Neymar before anyone gets to him.

I haven't seen enough of Rodrygo to make any sort of judgment on him whether or not he's better than what we already have in house, but if these guys are really going to go through with this I hope they don't make a mess out of it like the original Neymar-Santos deal.

 

[xXKonan]

Sign a midfielder ffs

MD says the club wants to push for Arthur and get him in the summer and instead of waiting until January, but it depends on if we can get rid of the likes of Gomes quick enough.

Seems like Arthur could possibly be our only Midfield signing this summer. While Arthur profile wise would be a nice addition, we still need another CM. Arthur is young and needs time to get in the groove of things and we are asking to much straight away for him to be our lone CM signing.