What year do you think a La Liga team outside Barca and Real will win La Liga again

[ammarfcb]

don't mind, wolfe is just so desperate to put messi and cristiano into the same sentence.

. it's hard to predict but theres more and more money being put on teams outside the top 2 eg: malaga. so it won't be long before barca vs malaga is the new clasico ofcourse this is all when ronaldo leaves

 

[dalitis8]

If the current revenue sharing isn't changed... never.

How was the revenue distributed in the early noughties when Deportivo and Valencia were winning it?

 

[Dinho]

How was the revenue distributed in the early noughties when Deportivo and Valencia were winning it?

Probably the same?

But both those clubs are now heavily in debt and have fallen from grace. How could they be expected to compete with Barcelona and Real Madrid, and not suffer in the long term?

 

[Manuel Traquete]

How was the revenue distributed in the early noughties when Deportivo and Valencia were winning it?

Pre 2004, pretty much every team earned the same; Deportivo actually had a great deal and won roughly the same as Barca, teams negotiated with different operators. In 2004, teams started negotiating millionaire deals with just one operator, with Barca/Madrid getting around 55 million and the rest 18-20 at best and a gap started to open.

In 2007, the current TV deals were agreed and any semblance of competition destroyed.

There are no miracles: Barca and Madrid are getting 150 million a year, the next best get less than 40 million. Barca and Madrid have better players on the bench than Valencia on their lineup.

There won't be another champion ever if a more even distribution of revenue isn't agreed. There are no miracles.

Probably the same?

But both those clubs are now heavily in debt and have fallen from grace. How could they be expected to compete with Barcelona and Real Madrid, and not suffer in the long term?

No, these TV deals date back to 2007. Pre 2004, distribution was about even.

 

[dalitis8]

Where did you find this information?

And how did the rest of the league agree on this?

 

[Manuel Traquete]

Where did you find this information?

And how did the rest of the league agree on this?

Here. Don't know if you understand Spanish, but all my sources on this matter are in Spanish, and this is the best one.

Other clubs had no choice but to agree. Every club negotiated their own deal and with only one operator, therefore Barca and Madrid, being the most popular clubs, were always going to get a better deal for them.

The 2007 deal has effectively ended the chance of any club other than Barca or Madrid winning La Liga ever again. It's more of a lock than the Scottish title.

Some presidents, led by Del Nido, are fighting for a fairer TV revenue, but looks like an uphill battle. If they fail, La Liga is damned to be a perpetual duopoly.

And yes, I know that the big 2 won 51 of the 79 league editions so far, so their dominance isn't a new phenomenon. But that's still 28 leagues won by other teams. With Barca and Madrid getting 150 million per year and the rest 40 at best (most earn less than 20), that won't happen ever again. If we have an absolutely disastrous disastrous season, we'll be second in La Liga. In the late 90s, early 00s, we'd be 6th in a disastrous season, now we'll always be second, comfortably.

The gap will only keep widening every year. Barca and Madrid have better players on the bench that even the best of the other 18 teams have on their lineup.

There won't be anyone else winning the league or even coming close in the foreseeable future. Barcelona and Real Madrid have La Liga on a financial death grip.

 

[dalitis8]

Distribution was never even.

The case has been, that Real Madrid and Barcelona managed to massively improve their TV deals over time, whereas the rest of the league has more or less stagnated.

But there will be a new deal by around 2015. If La Liga manages to get more cash in total, then the smaller teams will surely get a better cut.

 

[Ode to Django]

Certainly not in the near future thats for sure, i went with 2019 with Sevilla winning

 

[poltergeist]

That'd be 2014...You heard it here first.

Malaga have already been taken over. Getafe will be taken over by some wealthy UAE group and Mallorca is also catching the eye of some Middle Easterners. It's only a matter of time before the duopoly is broken.

 

[Aryagorn]

Didn't we propose a plan so the TV share will be equally distributed... but the change won't be sudden? Like in 4 or 5 years from now every body would be earning almost similarly.


I don't know if others accepted it, but that's actually pretty good plan. I mean the top 2 have earned their share and it would be unfair for them too if they were forced to earn just as much as the other mediocre clubs!!

 

[Manuel Traquete]

Distribution was never even.

The case has been, that Real Madrid and Barcelona managed to massively improve their TV deals over time, whereas the rest of the league has more or less stagnated.

But there will be a new deal by around 2015. If La Liga manages to get more cash in total, then the smaller teams will surely get a better cut.

It was never even, but when the TV deals started being negotiated in 1996, Barcelona, Deportivo, Madrid and Valencia got something like 20-25 million, while the lowest earning clubs got something 5-10. For 6-7 years you had four teams who could win (and did win) the league every year, and many other clubs could have surprise campaigns (see Celta, Sociedad in 2003). There was genuine balance in the league.

The new 2004 deal started destroying that balance, and the 2007 one completely ended it. Now Barca and Madri are expected to win almost every match, whether home or away, and every draw/defeat is seen as a huge upset. Every year, Barca and Madrid get an extra 150 million + TV money, while the other 18 teams get 10-40, so the gap widens by the year.

The deal proposed for 2015 is Barca and Madrid getting 40% of the total revenue, that'd only make La Liga even less competitive. Some presidents, led by Del Nido, are rebelling against the deal, we'll see if they can get anything.

Personally, I hope they do. Even as a Barca fan, I can't approve the way my club (and Real Madrid) have the entire league on a financial death grip. Football is supposed to be about competition and we'll never have that in La Liga while only two clubs have access to top class players (since only those two have the financial resources to sign them and pay their wages).

Didn't we propose a plan so the TV share will be equally distributed... but the change won't be sudden? Like in 4 or 5 years from now every body would be earning almost similarly.


I don't know if others accepted it, but that's actually pretty good plan. I mean the top 2 have earned their share and it would be unfair for them too if they were forced to earn just as much as the other mediocre clubs!!

No, Barca and Madrid are demanding 35-40% of the total revenue. A group of rebels, led by Del Nido, is trying to oppose to that and create a more even distribution.

That proposal would make Madrid and Barca earn around 80 million, Valencia and Atlético 60, some other clubs 40 and the lowest earning clubs around 25. It definitely seems a better deal.

This graphic shows the differences between the two proposals.

The red lines show the deal that's currently about to go through.

The blue lines show the deal that the revolutionaries want.

I think we'll agree Sevilla's proposal is a lot more reasonable (read: won't make La Liga an eternal duopoly ala Scottish league).

 

[dalitis8]

But as I perceive it, there never was a 2003 a deal, nor a 2007 deal. The Spanish Clubs negotiate their TV rights individually, and Barca and Madrid were the only clubs capable of demanding more and more from TV broadcasters. The rest could not follow suit (this is the inherent logic of capitalism after all) and to a certain extent have only themselves to blame. Valencia, Atletico and Sevilla have been fantastically mismanaged. I don't know what went so wrong with Deportivo.

I would say that things should be kept as they are for the time being (until 2014, not a terribly long time from now) for the benefit of Barca of course. But as they league is getting increasingly ridiculous, by 2015, almost the entirety of the extra revenue, should go to the rest of the clubs.

 

[xaviniesta]

premier league revenues

 

[Manuel Traquete]

But as I perceive it, there never was a 2003 a deal, nor a 2007 deal. The Spanish Clubs negotiate their TV rights individually, and Barca and Madrid were the only clubs capable of demanding more and more from TV broadcasters. The rest could not follow suit (this is the inherent logic of capitalism after all) and to a certain extent have only themselves to blame. Valencia, Atletico and Sevilla have been fantastically mismanaged. I don't know what went so wrong with Deportivo.

I would say that things should be kept as they are for the time being (until 2014, not a terribly long time from now) for the benefit of Barca of course. But as they league is getting increasingly ridiculous, by 2015, almost the entirety of the extra revenue, should go to the rest of the clubs.

You got it pretty much right. The main difference, however, is that in 1996 (when the first deals were made), clubs had several operators they could deal with. Now, for some reason I'm not fully aware of, all deals are made with one giant operator, who will obviously give more money to the biggest clubs.

And while it's true that those clubs were poorly managed, Barca and Madrid weren't exactly well-managed either. Catastrophic signings like Ibra for 70 million or Kaka for about the same price, among many others (Cacares, Chygrinsky, the endless list of Madrid flops) aren't exactly great management. We don't feel the repercussions because we are earning 150 million every year. If Valencia were earning that, they could get away with some bad management as well.

2014 is the year for the new deal, until then nothing will change. I'm afraid that, if Sevilla can't have their proposed deal passed, it will La Liga's death warrant (as a competitive competition). We'll just have Barca and Madrid being the Spanish Rangers and Celtic and dominating unchallenged every year. When they have a bad season, someone can come within 15 points of one of them, I guess. 150-50 is way too big a difference, there's no way anyone would be able to compete with the big two.

premier league revenues

This is a fairer deal, but still doesn't make the Premier League much more competitive, it's the same faces at the top every year.

The German financial model would be ideal, but I'm afraid impossible given the greed of Spain's bit 2.

It's true that their total revenue is vastly inferior, but the distribution is a lot fairer, and the clubs are much more responsible. Less than 50% of revenue is used on player wages. Tickets are the cheapest in Europe, and therefore attendances are the highest.

The downside? It's hard to have super teams dominating Europe like Barca are now.

The upside? The Bundesliga is a lot more interesting than the other top leagues in Europe. You get different faces at the top spots every year, everyone can genuinely beat everyone and there's some great football on display. Bayern have a super team this season, but they're struggling in their league a lot more than inferior sides like City or United. There are no cannon fodder sides in the league, all have quality.

Besides, the clubs are forced to invest in their youth set-ups, which has ultimately been hugely beneficial to the German NT. Due to the balanced revenue sharing, they can also get hold of those players for at least a few years (in a system like La Liga's or the PL's, a player of Marco Reus's quality would already be playing for Bayern).

The fact that every team in the country has quality is also helping them in the UEFA rankings. They're surpassed the Serie A, are only a few points away from surpassing La Liga and will surely very soon and should only be a matter of time before they overcome the Premier League as well. If Financial Fair Play comes into play, there's no doubt that the Bundesliga will dominate Europe, since the league and all its clubs are pretty much debt-free.

Bayern are the only European giant who operate at a profit every year.

 

[La Furia]

If the Neymar deal is true I'm changing my vote to 2014.