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I am of the belief that switching to three out and out CBs at the back is the way to go, tiki-taka 2.0 if you will. The ironic thing is, I sort of modified it off of Cruyff's old system since he played similarly with 3 in the back so in some ways, its a return to Cruyff's tactics.
My arrows in particular show the defensive runs because I am sure the main concern of a lot of people on here will be that 3 at the back means we will be defensively exposed. Wrong. Juventus have been playing with 3 CBs at the back since Conte has arrived and they currently have one of the best defensive records in Europe. Only Bayern, PSG, Lille and Roma have better records and they are tied with Atletico with 22 goals against so far this season. The beauty of this formation is that it can easily flow into a very defensive 4-3-3 and at times even a 5-2-3, as seen in the following:
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Ignoring the mess around Messi, if you follow the arrows on this one, it signifies the freedom each player has to go forward from that shape to allow us to go back into our original formation. In particular, this would give Messi and Alexis a lot more freedom and space tactically that suits how they play. Messi, obviously at the center of everything and with help up top, should be in the perfect position to maximize his attributes. But its Alexis's new role that I think would break open our game. I think that instead of Alves making those late runs and wasting possession with a sloppy cross, putting Alexis into his role could give us exactly what we need. Imagine what Alexis would do with the amount of space Alves gets nowadays? Alexis struggles because his space to play and move is extremely confined on the right between Messi and Alves. In Tata's current setup, he is bound to one area of the pitch which doesn't utilize his electric pace.
Particularly if he is making late, 2nd wave runs after defenses are already pegged back, I think he would be infinitely more dangerous than Alves is now and would probably score a lot more often. While he would take up more defensive responsibilities with this role, I think it would suit him perfectly and he already shows a willingness to provide defensive support and effort now. With Bartra supporting him on the outside and the pressure from the RCM, he should have cover to ensure we aren't exposed on the right.
That is the key, 3 CBs that are strictly at task with neutralizing counter attacks and winning the ball back quickly is much more effective defensively and suits our pressing style nicely. It would allow us to run the trap much easier with immediate pressure from the CBs high up the pitch, trying to win the ball back and redistribute as quickly as possible. Tack on Busi's tactical nous, Alba's recovery runs due to his speed and work rate and late support from Alexis and the other AMs, and we would have everything we need to out press teams in the MF while also being able to neutralize counters much quicker and efficiently with more defensive cover. In all reality, while it may seem counter-intuitive, this setup is actually more defensive and conservative than any of our past line-ups with 2 attacking full backs and only 2 CBs.
"But why don't we just play a 4-2-3-1? Its what Spain play, and everyone else seems to run it so well..."
Since I said I would explain more in the previous post, this is precisely the reason why tactically speaking I prefer de Boer to Klopp. I am afraid that Klopp will try to run a similar 4-2-3-1 that he runs at Dortmund with us and I am not convinced it would work out as well as so many imagine:
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The biggest problem with it is that, particularly with the players I am sure Klopp would play with, we would be extremely narrow and would still be tactically vulnerable in the same ways that we are now. Even with a new striker up top, Gundogan as a DM next to Busi or even Iniesta in the middle behind Messi, it still wouldn't be too much of a difference of what we have now. Alba and Alves would still have to provide width support in attack and that leaves our CBs simply too exposed to counters nowadays. Particularly with the way Atletico are setup (the opposing team in this diagram is setup almost exactly like Atletico), the MF would be too cluttered with a lack of natural width and again, Messi, Iniesta and co. would continue to be starved of space.
The modern game is increasingly shifting tactically to flooding the middle so the way to overcome that is to find a way to dominate the wings. We already posses the skill necessary to dominate the middle regardless of who we play. A big reason why teams play a 4-2-3-1 now is to provide stability and numbers to win the MF battle. However, if we can stretch teams on the outside and stretch the space in between their lines, it will open up the center and allow Messi and Iniesta the space to dominate. It was our ability to be effective down the wings, not necessarily Messi in the center, that made Pep's system flow so well and it is that lack of width that is causing us to look so toothless nowadays against buses. A system that brings back some width to our play, I think, is the key to breaking down the bus formula:
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Sorry about the lines around the ST, not sure why the drawing thing spazzed out like that...
Anyway, in attack this formation has loads of potential. Someone earlier scoffed at the idea of Rafinha playing in the Xavi role due to him featuring at times at Celta as RW. While he does feature more in the RCM role than on the RW, I think its his ability to excel on the wing is precisely what could be the answer to our stagnant MF at times. Iniesta is a much bigger threat in the center because of his ability to overload on the wing and pull apart defenses with his dribbling ability outside. Combine that with his vision in the center of the pitch and ability to dominate possession, its the reason why I think he in some ways is even better than Messi. I know Messi gets all the acclaim because of his goals but Iniesta is just as much as a genius on the ball and on the pitch as Messi is. So if you have two AMs who can both control possession in the center, can beat 1-3 players at any time and can provide overlap support on the wings, there is very little you can do to stop that. Its why I have always wanted Rafinha more than any other CM.
Furthermore, this system would also open up the possibilities to a devastating counter. Off the break, both Messi and whomever the other attacker be (Neymar/Aguero, etc.) would be an immediate threat from this setup but I think its Alexis who will increasingly be our counter man. With his pace, he could make late runs after their defense has been dragged out and he would have literally acres of space to run into.
With a proper CB and #9, this would be extremely hard to beat. It puts a majority of our players in positions that best suit how they play, it would free up space to allow a more direct approach with space for players like Alexis and Neymar to exploit but also allow us to still have tiki-taka triangles with defensive cover. We would still have the numerical advantage in the MF, and with someone like Aguero up front and assuming Rafinha does as well as I imagine he would in that role, it would be the perfect evolution of our game.
While Aguero might be a bit too far fetched, I think a out and out center striker to help support Messi through the center is vital to getting the best out of him again and after a CB, I think another striker should be our next priority. A defensive fullback wouldn't hurt either.
Sorry I know that is a lot but to conclude, all I think we need is a coach with some vision, tactical nous and drive with the chance to deal in the summer and even with our current boards incompetence, we could at least be back to the level we once were. I also think it would be a disservice to immediately kick Xavi, Cesc and Alves to the curb. All of them are still world-class players but I think some competition and the current way we are going about our tactics is why they are struggling right now. With a fresh squad and a fresh coach with some fresh tactics, we can be competitive again. I am convinced Frank de Boer would be exactly what we need, but a Klopp, Enrique or even Martinez wouldn't hurt either.
Its certainly the end of an era, but remember what happened last time when we transitioned from one dead era to another? Who's to say we can't make a similar turnaround twice?
Thoughts and comments are appreciated and thanks for taking the time to read my mini article lol.