10 - Ansu Fati

[BusiTheKing]

I don't think you can say that it's unfair if the result contradicts the xG. It's still up to the team to score the chances they create.

It's possible that Villa were lucky against Brighton but xG alone won't definitively tell us that, as it would still possible that all Villa's goals were simply very good finishes from difficult positions. To determine that you have to actually watch the game.

But yeah, no one has ever claimed that xG reliably predicts the score of a game. As far as statistics go, it's still definitely the most interesting measure we have.

 

[Jenks]

You can kinda see why they wouldn't be recorded as high xG chances. Might be a limitation of xG more than anything though.

 

[Birdy]

You can kinda see why they wouldn't be recorded as high xG chances. Might be a limitation of xG more than anything though.

Doesn't play.
Do you have an alternative link?

Exactly. Due to the low number of points (goals) gained, football is the most random team sport. In a single match, luck plays a big role. Everyone probably remembers the match Argentina vs Arabia at the World Cup. Result was 1-2, but xg 2.26 vs 0.15. Good statistics only translate into good results after a several games. In volleyball or basketball the better team on the field almost always wins, cuz a lot of points are gained.

Last CL season, xg matched the result by 61,6% (77 out of 125). I considered xg as correct when team won and had an xg advantage of 0.51+ or when was tie and the xg difference was 0.50 or less. Rounding xg into integer and creating a virtual score (to compare vs real) would be unfair (xg 0.51 vs 1.49 would give 1-1 and 0.51 vs 0.49 would give 1-0). I think this is a good result, considering the 3-way solution. No other statistic returns the result better. In general, xg is only counted if the action ends with a shot. It can only be underestimated, never overestimated.

The result determines the game. 7/10 games 1st goal scorer wins, 2/10 is a draw and only 1/10 team which lost 1st goal is victorious. Often the team that leads gives the initiative back to the rival and the match stats are faked. Finals have their own rules. 3 matches is not a sample. Data is the most important thing in statistics. The more of them, the better. In the last CL final before the goal was scored Inter had an xg lower than Haaland.

Yes, I don't disagree with the most part of what you say.
I never round the xG scores, and I never look at an xG scoreline alone, but also at the xG shotmap which tells the bigger story.
I have explained it in the past: 10 shots of 0.1 value give you a sum xG of 1, but it's unlikely most teams will score a goal from these attempts. On the contrary, 2 shots of 0.5 value give you an xG of 1, and most decent finishers would score both of such chances

 

[mc_lovin]

He’s done if there was any doubt left. Sad but true.

 

[Messi983]

How so? He's playing well for Brighton. Give no feck about stupid international games.

 

[Gnidrologist]

How so? He's playing well for Brighton.

Really? I haven't seen their matches recently. Scoring some goals?

 

[mc_lovin]

How so? He's playing well for Brighton. Give no feck about stupid international games.

He plays alright for Brighton, but hardly well.

 

[delancey]

😁

 

[ajnotkeith]

Trademark first-time finish.

 

[soul24rage]

That goal from Ansu!

 

[Messi983]

Ma boi.

 

[mc_lovin]

Good game. Nearly had an assist as well.

 

[Fati_Future_BallonDor]

Finally he is back!

 

[Nazario1985]

Nice a goal so we can sell him to Saudi or MLS leagues

Keep up the work Ansu

 

[Barcaman]

His first goal for Brighton today!