I am not so sure at all, Kerry. For starters, Messi himself has to at least sustain his current level, scoring and assisting well ahead of other players. And not getting injured.
It also depends on a few other factors outside of his personal control:
(1) How will Ronaldo do? I think it would be a mistake to assume once he hits 30, he is going to slow down significantly. So far Ronaldo has shown no signs of slowing down at all, as a matter of fact (or opinion, at least agreed by Ronaldo himself) that he is having the best form of his career. Ronaldo could turn out to be someone like Ribery and Robben who get better as they age. Ronaldo has the attributes to keep on going at a very high level. To quote 442, "His all-round technical ability, his incredible physicality and his commitment to maintaining his high standards mean the Portuguese can go on and on for years to come – and there won’t be a single stepover." If Ronaldo keeps going like this, with a superb Real Madrid team around, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins his 4th and 5th BD.
(2) How will our team do? Messi can be at the top of his game and score like crazy, but if our team is still in this rather lackluster form (and not being able to bridge the gap between us and the likes of Bayern and Real Madrid, the true 1st tier teams) with a pretty clueless manager and a board that are not helping out at all, it would be very, very hard for us to win any meaningful trophies. Without those trophies, Messi might just kiss the BD bye-bye.