Don't think I've seen a message about that in all your discussion about le Ballon d'Or, so thought I'd remind you all that the whole voting process changed quite a few times since 1956, but most notably it changed twice in the past 10 years.
It used to be a vote by a selected pool of journalists (since it was created by the french football magazine France Football, though I assume everybody here knows that). That is, up until 2009.
After that (starting with Messi's 2010 trophy), France Football and FIFA decided to merge their two separate trophies (Ballon d'Or and FIFA Player of the year) to create FIFA Ballon d'Or. They decided to go with FIFA POTY rules: captains and coaches of every national team in the world gave points (5, 3 or 1) to any 3 players they wanted on a list of 23 decided by the magazine. It means it wasn't journalists anymore, but players and managers.
It led to quite a few stupid votes, by the way (for example, in 2015, Vanuatu captain gave 5 points to Pogba, Indian coach gave his top spot to Alexis Sanchez, Löw only voted for german players, Martinez did the same with argentinians and so on).
They reverted the whole thing in 2016 (Ronaldo's last two trophies were attributed by a selected pool of journalists).
So why am I telling you this, assuming you don't already know it ? Well, historically speaking, when there's a world cup or a Euro, the Ballor d'Or goes to the "main" player of the winning team. I'm talking about the "real" Ballon d'Or, not about the FIFA Ballon d'Or. FIFA POTY usually goes to the offensive player who impressed the most during the year. Same could be said about the FIFA Ballon d'or, since the voting system was basically the same.
It's particularly obvious for WC years (EURO got a few exceptions, especially when Greece of Denmark won, for example).
Since 1990:
- 2006: Cannavaro - Italy WC winner
- 2002: Ronaldo - Brazil WC winner
- 1998: ZIZOUUUUUUU - France WC winner
- 1994: Stoichkov - Exception but Bulgaria (!) managed to reach semi finals of the WC, him being top scorer in the competition. Plus, most importantly: before 1995 the trophy could only go to a european player. Too bad for Romario.
- 1990: Matthaüs - Germany WC winner
So in almost 30 years with the original voting system, the only time the award didn't go to a WC Winner was in 1994... when no world cup winner could have been crowned.
I'd be pretty surprised to see Ronaldo getting the trophy this year. His spectacular goal against Juventus might count, and so will his hat trick against Spain (come on, that was something !). But it probably won't be enough, especially when you get pretty obvious picks like:
- Modric, WC final, best player of the tournament, CL
- Varane, WC, CL
- Griezmann, WC, EL
As much as I love Messi (and believe me, I really love him), he played very poorly during the world cup, and Barca didn't go far enough in CL. Winning la liga is clearly not enough when you look at most winners of the past years (not counting those FIFA Ballon d'Or years). He probably won't make it to the top 3 or top 5.
Unless something out of the ordinary happens between august and october (the last months of the year can have a pretty big influence, since it's exactly when the journalists are gonna vote), I'd say it should be something along the lines of:
1. Modric
2. Griezmann
3. Ronaldo
4. Varane
5. Messi (or maybe Messi 4 and Varane 5).
Not saying that's what I would have voted, but I think that's what's going to happen. Messi might go up a couple spots if he had an amazing couple months, but I don't see him going higher than 3rd. Ronaldo might win the trophy if he has an absolutely amazing couple months in Italy (the fact that he manages to crush his opponents in a 3rd different league could impress the judges) AND if Modric and Griezmann need some time to get back on track in this new season. But once again, I'd be surprised if he gets it.