You meant anti French man for sure. This type of clause is illegal in France to begin with.
Erling Haaland
- Thread starter behindbrowneyes
- Start date
You meant anti French man for sure. This type of clause is illegal in France to begin with.
Birdy
Senior Member
JamDav1982
Senior Member
Birdy pretending he has read the article.
Doubt most folk pay for the Atheltic chief.
Copy and paste it.
Doubt most folk pay for the Atheltic chief.
Copy and paste it.
Temptation
Well-known member
Send the article text mate.
Joan
Well-known member
It?s not that hard to imagine Erling Haaland moving to Manchester City and just, like, breaking football.
Since arriving at Borussia Dortmund already a teenage phenomenon, Haaland has scored almost once a game, even if you don?t count penalties (0.92 non-penalty goals per 90 German Bundesliga minutes, if you like your football to two decimal places). Haaland scoring 140 goals for club and country before his 22nd birthday makes Lionel Messi look like a slow learner.
Factor in a growth curve for a striker who?s still years from his prime, assuming his team-mates in Manchester are better than in Dortmund (they are) and that they?ll let him take penalties (they will), and you can see Haaland stomping all over Mohamed Salah?s record 32 goals in a 38-game Premier League season. Alan Shearer is convinced Haaland will score 40.
But competitive English football may not be headed for extinction just yet. For all the justified hype around Haaland, there are just as many reasons to believe this signing doesn?t make sense at all. He?s a Stratocaster in a section of Stradivariuses, a Viking in the monastery, and the slashing style that made him famous didn?t prepare him for the fussiest team in the world. His eye-catching numbers are weighted with asterisks and the tactics aren?t exactly easy to envision. Barring some pretty remarkable adaptation from Haaland and Pep Guardiola, this move could be a crippling mistake.
Here?s the case against the Haaland signing?
Managing expectations
Sporting departments don?t sign strikers for what they used to do. They?re paying for future goals. And one of the challenges of recruiting is that the number of goals a player scored in the past doesn?t tell you a whole lot about how many he?s likely to score in the future.
Just ask Timo Werner, who scored 25 non-penalty goals for RB Leipzig at 23 years old, more than all 3,557 players in the top five leagues in 2019-20 except some guy named Robert Lewandowski. Ever since Chelsea won the race to sign him that summer, Werner?s goals haven?t just disappeared, they?ve grown a moustache and gone into witness protection.
To be fair to Werner, his expected goals (xG) weren?t as high as his goal numbers then and they aren?t as low as them now. Shooters create chances at a steadier clip than they finish them, and one reason xG exists is that it?s a more reliable guide than goals to the one thing a buying club really wants: future goals.
That?s bad news for Haaland, who?s got the opposite problem from Werner at Chelsea. He?s scoring too much: 74 goals on 54.5 non-penalty xG in the Bundesliga and Europe, or 36 per cent more goals than an average shooter would be expected to score from the same chances.
It?s easy to believe, watching him treat the back of the net like it wronged his family somehow, that model averages simply can?t do justice to Haaland?s avenging left foot. But even if that?s true ? and it probably is! ? it?s unlikely to stay that true in the future.
Since arriving at Borussia Dortmund already a teenage phenomenon, Haaland has scored almost once a game, even if you don?t count penalties (0.92 non-penalty goals per 90 German Bundesliga minutes, if you like your football to two decimal places). Haaland scoring 140 goals for club and country before his 22nd birthday makes Lionel Messi look like a slow learner.
Factor in a growth curve for a striker who?s still years from his prime, assuming his team-mates in Manchester are better than in Dortmund (they are) and that they?ll let him take penalties (they will), and you can see Haaland stomping all over Mohamed Salah?s record 32 goals in a 38-game Premier League season. Alan Shearer is convinced Haaland will score 40.
But competitive English football may not be headed for extinction just yet. For all the justified hype around Haaland, there are just as many reasons to believe this signing doesn?t make sense at all. He?s a Stratocaster in a section of Stradivariuses, a Viking in the monastery, and the slashing style that made him famous didn?t prepare him for the fussiest team in the world. His eye-catching numbers are weighted with asterisks and the tactics aren?t exactly easy to envision. Barring some pretty remarkable adaptation from Haaland and Pep Guardiola, this move could be a crippling mistake.
Here?s the case against the Haaland signing?
Managing expectations
Sporting departments don?t sign strikers for what they used to do. They?re paying for future goals. And one of the challenges of recruiting is that the number of goals a player scored in the past doesn?t tell you a whole lot about how many he?s likely to score in the future.
Just ask Timo Werner, who scored 25 non-penalty goals for RB Leipzig at 23 years old, more than all 3,557 players in the top five leagues in 2019-20 except some guy named Robert Lewandowski. Ever since Chelsea won the race to sign him that summer, Werner?s goals haven?t just disappeared, they?ve grown a moustache and gone into witness protection.
To be fair to Werner, his expected goals (xG) weren?t as high as his goal numbers then and they aren?t as low as them now. Shooters create chances at a steadier clip than they finish them, and one reason xG exists is that it?s a more reliable guide than goals to the one thing a buying club really wants: future goals.
That?s bad news for Haaland, who?s got the opposite problem from Werner at Chelsea. He?s scoring too much: 74 goals on 54.5 non-penalty xG in the Bundesliga and Europe, or 36 per cent more goals than an average shooter would be expected to score from the same chances.
It?s easy to believe, watching him treat the back of the net like it wronged his family somehow, that model averages simply can?t do justice to Haaland?s avenging left foot. But even if that?s true ? and it probably is! ? it?s unlikely to stay that true in the future.
Joan
Well-known member
The Bundesliga tax might be real
The other thing about Haaland?s goals is that most of them were scored in Germany. You know how a certain kind of very annoying person will reply to social media posts about, say, Jadon Sancho?s slow start at Manchester United with ?Bundesliga tax?? Hate to say it, but they might be onto something.
Although projecting how stats translate across leagues is notoriously tricky, one model by Tony El Habr estimated that an average young forward moving from the Bundesliga to the Premier League could expect to see his xG drop by 0.07 per 90 minutes.
Then this tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/generaldepie_/status/1526566929858699264
El Habr warned that we should be careful about projecting that figure onto any specific player, but it would be a huge bite out of anyone?s attacking output, even Haaland?s 0.71 xG per 90 across three Bundesliga seasons. A goal in Germany may not be a goal in England. It may not even be a chance.
The obvious rebuttal here is that Haaland?s numbers are somehow even better across 1,464 Champions League minutes than in the Bundesliga. We know he can do this at the highest level. But running up the score against Genk and Besiktas in the group stage may not strike fear in the hearts of Premier League centre-backs, and tougher opponents like Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool may have played to Haaland?s strengths at Dortmund in a way they won?t at City.
Haaland?s real worry isn?t his stats ? it?s his playstyle.
The playstyle problem
The recent transfer landscape is littered with talented young attackers who struggled to adjust to life after Germany: Werner, Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic at Chelsea; Sancho at United; Ousmane Dembele at Barcelona; Luka Jovic at Real Madrid.
Half of those guys came from Borussia Dortmund, and all of them thrived against aggressive opponents in wide-open Bundesliga games, only to find space a lot harder to come by when playing for dominant teams in other leagues.
It was reported by ESPN that Chelsea scouts ? who ought to know by now ? ?raised concerns about whether Haaland?s style of play would be suited to the Premier League because there?s less space for forward players to attack and run into, compared to the Bundesliga?.
Take a look at Haaland?s goals and you?ll see a lot of this kind of thing?
Not a bad spot to be for one of the fastest players in the Bundesliga. Haaland?s top sprint speed this season clocks in at 36.3 kilometres per hour, just below Alphonso Davies: show him a high line and he?ll show you his Zen goal celebration.
Dortmund aren?t a counter-attacking side by any stretch of the imagination, averaging 59 per cent possession and moving the ball upfield at just 1.48 metres per second. That figure is the slowest in the Bundesliga but it would be in the middle of the pack in the Premier League, where City?s direct speed is a glacial 1.08 metres per second.
Guardiola doesn?t want end-to-end games, he wants control, and opponents would rather sit deep than risk giving City space in behind. That means balls over the top are rarely an option, and Haaland will have to hone some skills other than simply outrunning humans who are smaller and slower than him (ie, everyone).
One way you might think Haaland would help break down low blocks is with his head, which at 6ft 4in, is conspicuously higher than most heads. Over the last five Premier League seasons, 19 per cent of all centre-forward non-penalty goals have been headers, 17 per cent at Man City. Haaland?s career rate is just nine out of 88, or 10 per cent.
Some of that is due to the style of the teams Haaland has played in, and he?s improved in the air this season, but there?s not a whole lot of evidence that adding a giant Scandinavian in the box will level up City?s crossing game. His box movement is otherworldly but his hops are decidedly not.
Instead, most of the things Haaland is good at are things City already do better than anyone, like beating a defence in transition or timing his burst to finish a low, hard cross in the six-yard box. An optimist would say that makes him a perfect fit. A pessimist might reply that City can get those goals from Raheem Sterling or Phil Foden, much more versatile players who contribute in other phases of the game.
The other thing about Haaland?s goals is that most of them were scored in Germany. You know how a certain kind of very annoying person will reply to social media posts about, say, Jadon Sancho?s slow start at Manchester United with ?Bundesliga tax?? Hate to say it, but they might be onto something.
Although projecting how stats translate across leagues is notoriously tricky, one model by Tony El Habr estimated that an average young forward moving from the Bundesliga to the Premier League could expect to see his xG drop by 0.07 per 90 minutes.
Then this tweet: https://mobile.twitter.com/generaldepie_/status/1526566929858699264
El Habr warned that we should be careful about projecting that figure onto any specific player, but it would be a huge bite out of anyone?s attacking output, even Haaland?s 0.71 xG per 90 across three Bundesliga seasons. A goal in Germany may not be a goal in England. It may not even be a chance.
The obvious rebuttal here is that Haaland?s numbers are somehow even better across 1,464 Champions League minutes than in the Bundesliga. We know he can do this at the highest level. But running up the score against Genk and Besiktas in the group stage may not strike fear in the hearts of Premier League centre-backs, and tougher opponents like Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool may have played to Haaland?s strengths at Dortmund in a way they won?t at City.
Haaland?s real worry isn?t his stats ? it?s his playstyle.
The playstyle problem
The recent transfer landscape is littered with talented young attackers who struggled to adjust to life after Germany: Werner, Kai Havertz and Christian Pulisic at Chelsea; Sancho at United; Ousmane Dembele at Barcelona; Luka Jovic at Real Madrid.
Half of those guys came from Borussia Dortmund, and all of them thrived against aggressive opponents in wide-open Bundesliga games, only to find space a lot harder to come by when playing for dominant teams in other leagues.
It was reported by ESPN that Chelsea scouts ? who ought to know by now ? ?raised concerns about whether Haaland?s style of play would be suited to the Premier League because there?s less space for forward players to attack and run into, compared to the Bundesliga?.
Take a look at Haaland?s goals and you?ll see a lot of this kind of thing?
Not a bad spot to be for one of the fastest players in the Bundesliga. Haaland?s top sprint speed this season clocks in at 36.3 kilometres per hour, just below Alphonso Davies: show him a high line and he?ll show you his Zen goal celebration.
Dortmund aren?t a counter-attacking side by any stretch of the imagination, averaging 59 per cent possession and moving the ball upfield at just 1.48 metres per second. That figure is the slowest in the Bundesliga but it would be in the middle of the pack in the Premier League, where City?s direct speed is a glacial 1.08 metres per second.
Guardiola doesn?t want end-to-end games, he wants control, and opponents would rather sit deep than risk giving City space in behind. That means balls over the top are rarely an option, and Haaland will have to hone some skills other than simply outrunning humans who are smaller and slower than him (ie, everyone).
One way you might think Haaland would help break down low blocks is with his head, which at 6ft 4in, is conspicuously higher than most heads. Over the last five Premier League seasons, 19 per cent of all centre-forward non-penalty goals have been headers, 17 per cent at Man City. Haaland?s career rate is just nine out of 88, or 10 per cent.
Some of that is due to the style of the teams Haaland has played in, and he?s improved in the air this season, but there?s not a whole lot of evidence that adding a giant Scandinavian in the box will level up City?s crossing game. His box movement is otherworldly but his hops are decidedly not.
Instead, most of the things Haaland is good at are things City already do better than anyone, like beating a defence in transition or timing his burst to finish a low, hard cross in the six-yard box. An optimist would say that makes him a perfect fit. A pessimist might reply that City can get those goals from Raheem Sterling or Phil Foden, much more versatile players who contribute in other phases of the game.
Joan
Well-known member
?He has to help us?
Putting Haaland in City?s line-up means taking someone else out, and the success of this wildly expensive transfer won?t be measured in how many golden boots their new striker wins but in how many points and trophies City do. There are real trade-offs involved for Guardiola.
At the start of this season, everyone wanted to know how City would score goals without a striker. Pretty easily, as it turned out, but the real answer to the question was ?goals don?t win games ? goal difference does?. The current version of City doesn?t have the best attack out of Guardiola?s six seasons in Manchester but it may have his best defence yet. With two games left, they?re within spitting distance of the 2017-18 side?s Premier League record of +79 goal difference.
That?s not an accident. Playing an extra attacking midfielder or winger up top instead of a centre-forward gave Guardiola tactical flexibility. Most importantly, it gave the team an extra passer in the build-up to allow City to build even more carefully than before, which helped the defence get set up to prevent counter-attacks.
When they got near their opponents? goal, City?s liquid attackers, whose interchangeability as playmakers or runners made them impossible to track, offset the absence of a traditional striker with passing and movement.
Haaland would change all that. His whole purpose in life is to score. He plays within the width of the 18-yard box, always on the edge of the offside line. He?s pretty good at assisting team-mates in front of goal but doesn?t do much other passing. He doesn?t take on defenders except by running straight ahead.
Haaland?s idea of link-up play involves dropping in to try a one-touch layoff so he can turn and sprint behind the line for a return pass, like so
If you?re a striker who feasts on through balls, that looks like an opportunity. If you?re a manager who went bald from worrying over how to stop counter-attacks, you might see a loose touch by a player who immediately takes himself out of position to counter-press. It?s an opportunity, all right, but for the wrong team.
Guardiola has had a pure goalscorer at City before: Sergio Aguero. Their relationship got off to a rocky start. ?To score five goals in two games is a good statistic,? Guardiola told the press at one point. ?But he has to help us in the first pressure and run a lot and help us a lot with movement. You cannot be brilliant when you disappear when you don?t have the ball.?
With time and training, Aguero developed into the player Guardiola wanted, an all-purpose striker who played for the team. There?s no guarantee Haaland can do the same. His defending will get better and he?ll learn to co-ordinate his brilliant movement for team-mates? sake. But to be blunt about it, Haaland?s just not good with his feet, which is an awfully strange thing to say about a player moving to Manchester City.
?I would not throw everything at Haaland,? Guardiola veteran Dani Alves said a few weeks before the transfer, contrasting him with the more ?complete? Kylian Mbappe. ?Sincerely, I wouldn?t spend a lot of money on him.?
Putting Haaland in City?s line-up means taking someone else out, and the success of this wildly expensive transfer won?t be measured in how many golden boots their new striker wins but in how many points and trophies City do. There are real trade-offs involved for Guardiola.
At the start of this season, everyone wanted to know how City would score goals without a striker. Pretty easily, as it turned out, but the real answer to the question was ?goals don?t win games ? goal difference does?. The current version of City doesn?t have the best attack out of Guardiola?s six seasons in Manchester but it may have his best defence yet. With two games left, they?re within spitting distance of the 2017-18 side?s Premier League record of +79 goal difference.
That?s not an accident. Playing an extra attacking midfielder or winger up top instead of a centre-forward gave Guardiola tactical flexibility. Most importantly, it gave the team an extra passer in the build-up to allow City to build even more carefully than before, which helped the defence get set up to prevent counter-attacks.
When they got near their opponents? goal, City?s liquid attackers, whose interchangeability as playmakers or runners made them impossible to track, offset the absence of a traditional striker with passing and movement.
Haaland would change all that. His whole purpose in life is to score. He plays within the width of the 18-yard box, always on the edge of the offside line. He?s pretty good at assisting team-mates in front of goal but doesn?t do much other passing. He doesn?t take on defenders except by running straight ahead.
Haaland?s idea of link-up play involves dropping in to try a one-touch layoff so he can turn and sprint behind the line for a return pass, like so
If you?re a striker who feasts on through balls, that looks like an opportunity. If you?re a manager who went bald from worrying over how to stop counter-attacks, you might see a loose touch by a player who immediately takes himself out of position to counter-press. It?s an opportunity, all right, but for the wrong team.
Guardiola has had a pure goalscorer at City before: Sergio Aguero. Their relationship got off to a rocky start. ?To score five goals in two games is a good statistic,? Guardiola told the press at one point. ?But he has to help us in the first pressure and run a lot and help us a lot with movement. You cannot be brilliant when you disappear when you don?t have the ball.?
With time and training, Aguero developed into the player Guardiola wanted, an all-purpose striker who played for the team. There?s no guarantee Haaland can do the same. His defending will get better and he?ll learn to co-ordinate his brilliant movement for team-mates? sake. But to be blunt about it, Haaland?s just not good with his feet, which is an awfully strange thing to say about a player moving to Manchester City.
?I would not throw everything at Haaland,? Guardiola veteran Dani Alves said a few weeks before the transfer, contrasting him with the more ?complete? Kylian Mbappe. ?Sincerely, I wouldn?t spend a lot of money on him.?
FinBarcelonafan
Well-known member
Thanks Joan. Interesting point of view. Just proves Dortmund is running very good business.
Temptation
Well-known member
[MENTION=22463]Joan[/MENTION] this is more than enough. Thanks pal. Lovely read.
soul24rage
Senior Member
Joan the GOAT
Pokitren
New member
For such a player clubs can still argue!
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