Ballon d'Or is basically a popularity award. To be popular that year you have to win the biggest titles. It's hard to win in the current format without that. This is why I reckon VVD will win it. He's been more succesful this year and his team has been more popular. The journalists who vote have a higher oppinion of Liverpool than Retardo's Barca. This will inevitably reflect over how they perceive individual performances in 2019.
In a way it's fitting that Valverde, the guy Messi supports, will probably cost him the Ballon d'Or. A more competent manager would've won the treble last year, and that would've been a lock for Messi in one of the easiest wins for him at the BD.