I still don't believe that Messi will win it but for the life of me I won't ever understand how VVD is even ahead of his team mate Mane. Besides his stellar CL campaign, Mane was also the main force behind Senegal's bid for Africa's Cup of Nations. He lost in the end to Algeria but the man was the standout player next to Mahrez. Furthermore, Liverpool's defence for the start of this year has been sub par, and the main reason why they are in the first place in the PL is because the attack are bailing out their faltering defense, Mane being the best of them all.
It doesn't make any fucking sense.
Edit: ninja'd by Rory.
Also can't forget how if not for atrocious officiating, VVD would have been sent off in the crucial match of the group stages against Napoli for the foul on Mertens and Liverpool would have been playing in EL for the next of the year most likely. VVD is the best CB in the world but he was not Ballon d'Or material last year and only PR machines are keeping him in the race.