Yeah but the World Cup always had the biggest effect on the ballon d'or winner, sometimes players won just because winning the world cup but were not the best players in the club level or won much.
True,to an extent.
First of all, as I mentioned, the next Ballon will be awarded in 11 months. It is a long time. If Messi plays average, the feat will be forgotten/lessened. If the voting was now, Messi would probably sweep the award.
Secondly, when was the last time a WC champion won the Ballon or was close to winning one?
2018 was Modric because of the combined success of Real and Croatia.
2014 was CR7, as there was no standout performer in Germany.
2010 was similarly Messi.
So last time was 2006 with Cannavaro.
The thing is, football and the awards have changed (and Messi and Ronaldo have profited from it). Nowadays football is more star/celebrity-centric. To win the Ballon you have to play great all year long, have great stats and have magical, crucial moments in the WC/CL. And in the meantime your opponents have to have a worse case than you. The only way a non-superstar player can win the Balon is if no other player has a great case.
So for Messi to win the 8th (and to reiterate: I really doubt he gives a damn and in any case 7 awards is untouchable) he will have to consistently be among the 3-5 best players in the world aged 36, which means that he?ll have to reach at least the CL semis and no one other (be it Mbappe or Haaland) has a fantastically great season scoring 50 goals completely outshining Leo.