Varane is not always fit and Ramos is 33 next season. Nacho can play in any defensive position and Vallejo is not good enough and he will likely leave.
They will get a new CB and I was hoping that they would get Pavard, but BM seems closer.
Let us take a look at other teams who can afford him.
Liverpool: Dijk 27, Matip 27, Gomez 21 and Lovren 29 | I would say 50%?
Man City: Stones 24, Laporte 24, Otamendi 30 and Kompany 32 | not sure, unless something happens to either Stones or Laporte. 25%?
Chelsea: Rüdiger 25, Christensen 22, Luiz 31, Cahill 32 and Azpilicueta 29 | I would say 50%
Man United: Bailly 24, Lindelöf 24, Jones 26, Smalling 28 and Rojo 28 | they have got other positions to reinforce, cannot see them willing to pay much for him and they would prefer Maguire or Alderweireld . 25%
Tottenham: Alderweireld 29, Davinson 22, Vertonghen 31 and a couple of young CBs. They wanted him earlier, but they were not willing to pay the asking price. They are struggling financially because of their new stadium. 25%?
Juventus: Bonucci 31, Benatia 31, Rugani 24, Chiellini 34 and Barzagli 37. They were following him and they could afford him, but I do not think they would get him for anything above 40m. I am sure they have other options out there.
PSG: Kimpembe 23, Marquinhos 24, Kehrer 21 and Silva 33. They have got other positions to work on, LB? backup RB? and a couple of good CMs. 15%?
Munich: Hummels 29, Süle 22, Boateng 29 and Martínez 29. Even if they want a new CB they will never pay anything close to 50m I would assume. And 90% Pavard is going there. 15%?
Madrid: Varane 25, Ramos 32, Nacho 28 and Vallejo 21. I would it is 75%
Barcelona: Umtiti 24, Piqué 31, Lenglet 23 and Vermaelen 32. It is 75%
Other options:
Maguire 25 (for English clubs), Skriniar 23 (not easy), Pavard 22 (BM?), Tah 22, Upamecano 19 (not easy), Dias 21 (seems very promising) and a couple more should rise this season.