Come on, at Camp Nou the bottom half of the table know they will get beaten and it's mostly about how many they receive. We can implement 1 or even 2 youngsters at least in the team. I mean, if we play Messi, Suarez, Dembele up front, and Coutinho, Busquets, Puig/Alena we'll still kick ass on Camp Nou against 80% of the teams we face. That's 10-15 games.
We are not talking of bringing half the team with young players every 2nd game. But i think u can integrate 1-2 younger players more oftebn vs weaker opponents. So much that it didnt harm our game.
People are often explaining how "easy" is to develop young players.
Now, I am not saying that we shouldn't develop young players, but it is not nowhere near as simple as you think.
Let's see how it exactly looks on paper in numbers.
Last season, younger players:
Denis, his 2nd season. We need to test him.
Deulofeu, 1st season here, we need to test him.
Semedo, 24 years old young RB. We need to test him and give him lots of chances.
Dembele, this guy needs to play a lot.
Let's say that you need to give 15 matches per season to a young player.
If you play him for 10 minutes, he won't be able to play too much.
If you play him once a Month, he will lose confidence and won't develop chemistry.
So, you need to:
1. give players 45 or 90 minutes from time to time
2. you need to play them more often than once a Month
Now, you mentioned 10-15 easy matches in La Liga.
That means that all of these 4 would have need to play all those easier matches.
And Dembele would need at least 30 matches, since he is a bigger talent, right?
So, you somehow need to find 15+15+15 matches for Semedo, Denis, Deulofeu and 30+ matches for Dembele.
And now, let's say that after 1 season we didn't lose any trophies and that Semedo and Dembele were ok-ish, but need more development.
And that Denis and Deulofeu have disappointed.
Now, let's move to THIS season.
1. we will again have Dembele, who again needs 30+ matches.
Even worse, people will say: he needs to play even more. You know the story: he is a high potential, we need to give him chances and integrate him, and work on his confidence.
2. Semedo will need 20-30 matches instead of 15 this season, to continue his development
But now we have "new problems":
3. we bought Arthur.
You know the story: he needs 20-30 matches, to test him, so that he can develop, gain confidence, learn our system get chemistry with teammates, blah blah
But we have more problems:
4. Lenglet, insert the same reply: he is young, we need to give him chances, to integrate him
5. Alena, he was injured, but you know the story: He is the brightest La Masia gem. "An idiot" Fraudverde is not giving him chances. He NEEDS to play.
But he can't play only 5 or 6 matches.
You know the story again:
= he needs at least 15 matches with 45+ minutes to "feel" the game and everything
= he can't play only against Mickey Mouse opponents in CDR, he needs to play real matchs
= he needs to play more often than once a Month, again, to not get rusty, in order to keep his confidence, blah blah
6. Another new problem: Puig
He is young, but according to guys here, he should probably get at least 5 easier La liga matches, like against Huesca, right?
7. Samper, I won't even mention him, it is too complicated already.
8. Oh, another problem: Malcom.
He is young, expensive, he needs to play.
He is older and better than Puig, Alena and others currently.
So, 10-15 matches is not enough for him. HE NEEDS to play more, right? But "an idiot Fraudverde" doesn't know anything.
He needs let's say 20-ish matches, right?
So, let's put this ALL on paper.
How much times current guys needs for developing:
1. Dembele 40+ matches
2. Malcom 20+ matches
3. Semedo 20-30 matches
4. Arthur, at least 25 matches, right? Since we can't develop him without that...
5. Lenglet. He is a CB, but probably also needs at least 20 matches, otherwise he will be rusty, we low confidence, he won't develop confidence, he won't develop chemistry with our defenders etc.
6. Alena. At least 15 matches, right?
7. Puig, at least 10-ish matches. Or at least 5 La liga easier matches, right?
8. Samper, I won't mention him. Let's say that he don't deserve chances since we have too many youngsters to develop already.
Now, that is in terms of La liga matches neeeded:
1. Dembele 30
2. Malcom 15-20
3. Semedo 20
4. Arthur 20
5. Lenglet 15
6. Alena, 10 La liga matches
7. Puig 5 La liga matches
That is at least 115 matches/spots per match needed.
If La Liga has 38 matches, that means that these guys need 3,5 spots per match in La Liga.
That means that in order to develop these 7 players, we would need to play 3 and half of them in every single match.
If your regular lineup is Mats-Alba, Umtiti, Pique, Roberto-Busi, Coutinho, Rakitic-Dembele, Messi, Suarez, that means 2 and half out of Malcom, Semedo, Arthur, Lenglet, Alena, Puig.
Let's say that Dembele is a starter.
Or, in easier matches, even without Dembele's minutes, we have: 85 spots needed and we have 10-15 easier matches.
If we have only 10 easier matches, it means that these 6 guys would need to play every single smaller match, because PHYSICALLY there is not enough of free spots to play them in other matches, if all of them want to reach their needed numbers of minutes.
What is even funnier in this story:
1. let's assume that EVERY one of these players will be a success in given minutes this season (1. Dembele, 2. Semedo, 3. Malcom, 4. Arthur, 5. Alena, 6. Puig, 7. Lenglet) and that we will keep all 7 of them, and of course, we will NEED to continue to develop them in the next season
Now comes the funny part:
2. you have to give them the same number of minutes in the next season, or more likely, EVEN MORE (you can't give Puig only 10 matche and 15 matches to Alena and expect them to develop).
But, now you have to add LB Miranda into the mix, and he will need 10-15 matches in the next season also.
We will probably buy Frenkie De Jong, and you know the story: people will yell: HE NEEDS TO PLAY! That means probably 25-30 matches, right? Insert classical answers: he needs to develop, learn our system, gain confidence, gain chemistry blah blah.
Let's add more fun, now we will add even Oriol Busquets into the mix.
He will now need current Puig's treatment, 10 matches in the first season, and Puig will level up to let's say 15+ matches in the 2nd season.
So, then in the next season, we will need:
1. Dembele 40 matches
2. Semedo 25 matches
3. Malcom 25 matches
4. Arthur 30+ matches, you know: to develop him blah blah
5. Alena 15-20 matches
6. Puig 15-ish matches
7. Frenkie De Jong, at least 25-30 matches, since he is a special talent, right?
8. Oriol, well, he needs at least 10 matches, since he is the future, as always
9. Lenglet, 20 matches, to slowly phase out Pique
10. And now Miranda 10-15 matches at least
Since Dembele is a starter, even without his minutes, we will need:
= 175-180 matches roughly for 9 players.
That means (in order to properly TEST and DEVELOP these 10 players), in EVERY SINGLE LA liga match, we would need to 4 or 5 out of these players, lol.
So, not only in SMALLER matches, but in EVERY SINGLE match.
If you count only smaller matches, we would need to play 7-8 or all 10 players to get the needed amount of minutes.
So, as always, let's not go into extremes.
Of course that EV could give them more matches.
On the other hand, if we would give chances to ALL these youngsters, that is mathematically impossible.
Unless if you want to rotate 5 players in every single match.
And that won't bring any trophies.
Someone will reply now: BUT, when we will develop these players, we will have a good future and we won't need to rotate and risk anymore.
Well, that is NOT true, because developing of youngsters NEVER stops.
After these 2 seasons, we will buy:
1. another young CB. He will need these procedure again for 2-3 seasons.
2. Oriol will now need 20-30 matches
3. Puig will now need 20-30 matches
4. Alena will now need 20-30 matches
5. Miranda will now need 20-30 matches
6. now add into mix some new guys whom we will buy (the new Messi, the new Suarez, some new midfielders, as always. And random expensive kids from Brasil, out of nowhere.)
So, this development process never ends.
You can't say: we will now lose 2 season with kids and then we will be set for the future.
No, we won't.
As said, we will soon need new Messi, new Suarez, their subs, lot of new defenders. Possible new RBs. Possibly 1-2 new LBs (Alba is old, Miranda needs tests).
So:
= even all youngsters will make it, we will again have NEW youngsters each season, to replace some current oldies
= in the worst case, if some youngsters won't make it, we again need to buy NEW players, and then we both:
1. lost 2-3 years on testing players like Denis, Semedo
2. and now we will need to buy new players and go through the same process of testing and developing.
If new guys will make it: fine. But again you will have 4-5 new positions for buying new kids and for NEW testing.
And if new guys will fail, then you need to test even more, like 7-10 kids/new players in each season
So, this is a never ending process of risky, rotating, constant developing, constant buying and integrating of new players.
This is why we have one option to speed up this process:
= a coach and his staff have training grounds and they see player's development every day.
And if some youngsters are not playing, that is usually because a coach decided that a kid is not worth to go through this long and painful process for a club.
So, majority of players won't get a chance to play for 30 matches.
They will get 10-15 matches.
If they fail, that usually means: we don't have time, goodbye. You probably won't make it here. There is a tiny chance that you will make it, but we will risk.
A club will lose less with getting rid of 10 players and losing one Grimaldo eventually, than with playing 10 Grimaldos for 2-3 years, losing trophies and eventually get ONLY ONE Grimaldo.
So, for the end, I will quote this line one more time:
We are not talking of bringing half the team with young players every 2nd game. But i think u can integrate 1-2 younger players more oftebn vs weaker opponents. So much that it didnt harm our game.
It is mathematically impossible to rotate only 1-2 guys in easier matches and get enough of playing time for 5-10 squad younger players who need 10, 15 or 20 matches/appearances per season.
So, you can't have both:
1. trophies for the first team and chemistry for starters
2. and enough of playing time for too many youngsters/new players