3-4 years is usually a football cycle. This happens to all managers. Dortmund under Klopp were absolutely terrible in his last year there.
It's not so much opponents finding you out as you declining after a period, due to natural wear and tear. After a few years you just can't produce the same consistency and the same high level anymore.
You are neglecting the part of people's IQ.
I wrote before: imagine if you are playing any game, let's say real life football with friends or PES/FIFA on Playstation.
If you play PES/FIFA and if you are very good at the beginning and your opponent is a rookie, you will win 5:0 or 10:0 every match in the beginning.
If you will play EXACTLY THE SAME for 30 days in a row against him, he will get better and better each new day, he will learn how you are attacking, he will learn how to stop you and he will find ways how to create more and more chances against you.
So, do we agree:
1. on the first day: you will win 10:0
2. after 30 days, if you will play exactly the same and if your opponent will improve every day, results will be something like 2:1 or 3:2 for you, much closer than on the first day.
The same is with football and Pep.
He don't have too much room for improvement.
While his weaker opponents have lots of room to learn and evolve.
There is also that element of shock because EPL teams weren't used to play against that type of football.
You guys decline to accept it, but it is not just tear and wear.
If you would give 3B to Pep to spend, his team would still struggle more than in his 2nd season.
Because teams learned how his team attacks.
I don't watch City that much, but after a few matches, I spotted a few attacking patterns which they repeat all the time.
And coaches who earn billions aren't idiots.
They watch matches and tapes all the time.
They have also learned 5-10 classical tricks from Pep and his players and it is way harder for them now.
People often talk about Cruijff here.
But even Cruijff said after 3 winning seasons in 1993 (iirc): we can't do it this way anymore. Teams have figured us out, we need to reinvent some new tricks if we want to win again.
I am writing this, because a huge majority of our fans still believe: that NOTHING is wrong with Pep's style from 2008-2011, and that it stopped working only because we haven't executed it properly after that.
WHAT IF we DID execute it properly, but it became sterile and toothless because teams have figured us out?
Every single winning system in the history of football got figured out over time and became a part of the past.
Yet, a lot of our fans act as if Pep's/Cruijff's style is a divine style who will never be figured out and who will always work: IF EXECUTED properly.
That style could work in the future ONLY if we'll delete 30-40% of it and add 30-40% new things like current Bayern/Liverpool for example.
Cruijff himself got figured out at least twice during his tenure at Barca.
Pep got figured out in 2012 and now for the last 2 years at City.
The same happened with Spanish NT.
Coincidence?
Of course not.
** Edit: 2:5 lol.
Pep will soon reach Barca's fate with this rate.