Valverde is the most 'proven' coach we've hired in a long time, so there's that. Not a guarantee of success, but surely less of a 'risk' experience-wise than Lucho, Tata, Tito, and Pep who all had very little real managerial experience before becoming Barca coach. He's even more proven than Rijkaard was if you don't consider his Netherlands stint to be comparable experience to Valverde's long reign at Athletic.
It's hard to predict what Valverde's Barca would look like. His defensive base has always been built around high press at Athletic. At its heights, Lucho's Barca has been pretty effective at high pressure as well. When we lost it under Tito/Tata our defense was totally shambolic and Pique seemed to be going downhill but after Lucho his career bounced back and I think Gerard has been one of the best CB's in the world over the last 3 years. However, I think Valverde's high pressure is more strategic and with intent. Athletic try to push up and maintain consistent space between the lines even during quick transitions and buildups. The press is implemented almost immediately after dispossession and Athletic try not to 'retreat' when the ball is lost. IMO, he's built one of the most effective high pressing teams in La Liga.
Here are some defensive statistics to show how good Athletic have been defensively:
- 2nd least shots conceded in La Liga this season (9.9, only behind Barca at 9.5)
- tied 4th most tackles per game at 21.1 (most is valencia with 22.7)
- tied 4th least goals conceded per game at 40 (least is Atletico)
And this is with Athletic being an attack minded team. At Barca, Valverde will work with much more control of the ball and the ability to pin opponents back more easily. The high press and high possession system that Valverde implements makes Athletic VERY effective at both attacking and defending as a unit. Attacking moves involve almost all of the players being involved (even off the ball) whereas at Barca under LE we've seen the left/right flanks split during attacks and mostly individual/2-3 player moves to 'overwhelm' opponents. IMO Valverde is much less likely to only rely on MSN for goals/attacking moves and the rest of the team will probably give more significant support.
One criticism of Valverde is how much Athletic relies on crossing/set pieces for aerial goals. This is fairly true for most of Athletic's games. They average 23 crosses per game which ties RM and is one of the highest rates in La Liga. In the recent draw against Leganes it was like something more than 30 crosses attempted throughout the game. I think it's a valid criticism to make of his side, though it may just be Valverde playing to the advantages of his squad. The closest thing he has to a dynamic/mobile scoring type player is Iñaki Williams who, despite a good season, has not been that clinical with only 4 liga goals. Aduriz and Raul Garcia are his two top scorers and they are absolute beasts in the air but very limited elsewhere (they win around 9 aerial duels per game between the two of them). If he's relying on his supposedly only consistent scoring outlets, it makes sense to emphasize the play to their strengths. I don't think it's NECESSARY to attack in a death via cross method but Valverde is probably making the right decision with the cards he was dealt. At Barca he'll have a lot more capable perimeter attackers in Messi/Neymar creating chances and cutbacks will probably substitute for out and out crossing in the gameplan.
Valverde is an intelligent manager and has been hugely successful for Athletic. The Basque-only restriction is not an easy thing to deal with for a team that's trying to fight for European places but he's managed to have 4 very good years despite that. It's also worth considering that his success is in a period where La Liga's top 10 is far more competitive than in the previous decade. The first thing we'll see this summer is the kind of transfers that the board and/or Valverde push for. It's the crucial first step to rebuilding and at this point things don't look all that great as far as our targets go.
