theres some kind of 'leak' going around saying Modric 1st, Varane 2nd, Mbappe 3rd
I've read that, but I think it mostly comes from an interview with a France Football journalist who mentioned the top 3. He said those names in that order, but he didn't specify that it was the actual order (so the final three could be any combination with those 3 names). That being said, this wouldn't be particularly surprising. I thought that Griezmann would end up 3rd, but Mbappe's current form probably moved him a bit higher. The top 2 was rather obvious though, and I still hope that Varane will win it. He's been superb during the WC, won the 2 major titles, and it's been a very long time since a defender won that trophy. Plus, it would make some kind of sense compared to giving it to an offensive player: there's no way any striker/winger in that list is individually better than Messi or Ronaldo (Mbappe could reach that peak one day, but he still has room for improvement). So might as well give it to a defender, avoiding comparisons with the two quintuple winners.