Why not Brazil ?
They seem to have everything needed ..
Plus who else ??
I have seen this stat in one paper a few days ago.
Look at this pattern, all Brazil's WC matches after 2002:
2018:
Serbia 2:0
Switzerland 1:1
Belgium 1:2
Costarica 2:0
Mexico 2:0
2014:
Croatia 3:1
Germany 1:7
Mexico 0:0
Cameroon 4:1
Chile 1:1, pens 3:2
Colombia 2:1
2010:
Portugal 0:0
Netherlands 1:2
North Korea 2:1
Ivory Coast 3:1
Chile 3:0
2006:
Croatia 1:0
France 0:1
Australia 2:0
Japan 4:1
Ghana 3:0
Matches against non-European teams:
12 matches:
10 wins, 2 draws (1 win on pen after that draw vs Chile)
-- so, more or less 10 or 11 wins out of 12 matches vs non-Europeans
Now, look at this:
Matches against European teams:
Serbia 2:0
Serbia 2:0
Croatia 3:1
Croatia 1:0
Switz 1:1
Belgium 1:2
Germany 1:7
Portugal 0:0
Netherlands 1:2
France 0:1
Total matches:
10 matches
4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats
So, Brazil wins around 90% of matches vs Non-European teams, BUT ONLY 40% of matches vs European teams.
But, look even more: their ONLY wins since 2002 against Europeans are against two Balkan teams: Croatia and Serbia, who are known for good technique, wild mentality, unpredictability and often less running than western European teams.
So, let's say that for some reason Balkan teams suit Brazil.
When you remove Croatia and Serbia from these stats, Brazil didn't win a single match since 2002' against more pragmatic western European teams, check all the matches:
Switz 1:1
Belgium 1:2
Germany 1:7
Portugal 0:0
Netherlands 1:2
France 0:1
2 draws, 4 defeats, goals ratio 4:15
Ok, every match is unique, but some patterns are obvious.
The same as how peak Barca never head problems with technical teams like Arsenal, Porto, Ajax.
But struggled in a CL vs Mourinho's teams, Bayern, Atletico.
Or look at the pattern in the last few years where Bayern IIRC has 9 out of 10 wins vs Barca.
Barca just suits them.
Yet, Bayern loses easily against RM or Psg on the other hand.
I have wrote a lot of times about European teams who are more or less similar. Top teams like France, Portugal, England, Germany.
And then medium level like Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Croatia, Switzerland.
There are just "too many" Europeans who play very similar (except TikiTaka Spain and Balkan teams, for example).
But you get the point.
And then, for Brazil and Argentina, they have huge problems against these modern age European teams.
If Brazil wins against Belgium, they'll lose to Denmark.
If they win against Belgium and Denmark, they'll lose to France.
If they even beat Belgium, Denmark and France, they'll lose to Portugal or England.
Again, there are just TOO MANY of them and everyone are decent to world class.
Also, since the World cup expanded to 32 teams, there are even more Europeans on the WC than before.
On the first 15 world cups with a smaller number of teams (till 1994), Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay won 8 out of 15 world cups.
But in the last 25 years, since 1998 when the world cup has expanded to 32 teams, South Americans struggle.
On the 6 world cups from 1998 to 2018 with 32 teams, Europeans have won 5 times out of 6.
Even worse, Europeans have won the last 4 WCs in a row.
This is why, when JamDav often asks me: who is your favorite?
I honestly don't know.
I just reply: I don't know WHO will win it but I do know who won't: Brazil and Argentina.
Why: well, because there are too many European teams in KO rounds who don't fit their style and it is highly unlikely that they'll win 4 KO matches in a row (if the matches are 50:50). The chances are only 6,25% for a team to win 4 tight KO matches in a row.
On the other hand, I think that South American football is left behind in the last few years by Europeans who are on a higher level physique and tactics wise. Brazil do have an advantage in technique, though. Argentina don't have even that, they are inferior in every aspect (bar Messi) to at least 10 European teams.
So, if you just use some simple logic and maths, it is highly unlikely for Brazil/Argentina to jump through 4 KO matches when there are so many "randomly" okis European team where each one of them can get to the final with 2 good matches and some luck on pens, like:
England, France, Germany, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Croatia, Switzerland. Even Serbia and Poland can create problems to a majority of teams.
That's at least 10 tough opponents for Brazil and Argentina.
