How could Messi not win, though?
Notwithstanding Mourinho's statements, I do not see how Ronaldo could get the award. To be sure, Ronaldo is playing FANTASTICALLY. His goalscoring is absolutely insane. The problem is that Messi's goalscoring is actually marginally MORE absurd. Meanwhile, Messi's playmaking is much better. It is really hard to say that Ronaldo is a better individual player when Messi is better at Ronaldo's best thing (goalscoring) and otherwise, Messi is undoubtedly superior. Despite that, though, Ronaldo could legitimately win the Ballon D'or despite being a lesser individual player if his team did much better than Messi's. However, both guy's teams went out in the semis of the CL (and both missed crucial penalties in their loss). Ronaldo's team won La Liga, but Messi's won Copa Del Rey. La Liga > Copa Del Rey, so RM did have a better year than Barca last year, BUT the difference isn't vast enough to really justify giving the award to Ronaldo despite a clear gap in individual quality. As for national team success, Portugal did well to get to the semis of Euro2012, but getting to the semis doesn't exactly win you the Ballon D'or, especially when Argentina has been very successful in their matches this calendar year. It also bears noting that the award is for calendar year, so team success so far this season does matter. RM won the Spanish Super Cup, but given the Liga standings right now, I think it would be hard to argue RM has actually had a better season so far.
Here's how I see it. Messi is better than Ronaldo by a significant amount individually. To overcome this gap in individual quality, Ronaldo would have to have much greater team success than Messi this past year to warrant getting the Ballon D'or. Ronaldo HAS had greater team success than Messi this past year, but by a very slim margin such that it would be illogical to use that as a pretense to give him the award.