I know betting sites change based on who's betting what - but over here the favourite is Messi, followed by Iniesta and then Ronaldo.
It would be a crime IF Ronaldo won it, but then anyone who doesn't have RM/CR7 blinkered specs on will know that. You don't set all the records Messi did, score more, assist more, and even win more than your 'opponent' and end up not getting the vote over him. It's true that having the better impression and professionalism helps as well.
Whether he does get the award or not, the stats will show who the better player was, regardless of who's name is on the trophy.
Messi isn't defined by stats, they are simply a by-product of his phenomenal skill in so many aspects. However, many CR fans used to use stats as the reason why Cr is the best, now, Messi simply beat Ronaldo at his own game.