Not even sure he could, honestly. As I said earlier, and as many have pointed out, WC is too important for the Ballon d'Or (it wasn't when it was the FIFA Ballon d'or, but since it's back to the France Football Ballon d'Or it's literally the most important thing), with UCL far behind, and domestic leagues counting for barely nothing. There's going to be AT LEAST a french player and Modric on the podium. The third place is probably going to be between another french player and CR. The latter made a smart move, going to Juventus: scoring in a third major league after England and Spain is a clever way to prove that you're a great player. And there's that goal against Juve in UCL last season. Those will count, along with those 3 goals against Spain at the WC. It won't be enough to get him to win, but it will get him ahead of Messi, and it might get him on the podium but I'm not even sure actually.
Again, not saying it's fair, or it's the way it should be. Individual awards in team sports are silly, and to me the question you should ask yourself when giving one is "I'm having a football game against one of my friend, we can pick everyone in the world for our team and I get to pick first: who do I get ?". Messi would win it most of the time.
But it's not the spirit of the Ballon d'Or France Football. Go look at the podium for 1998, 2002 and 2006: there's always AT LEAST 2 WC finalists (3 for 2002 and 2006 actually, Suker being the only exception for 1998 but he was semi finalist with Croatia AND he won the UCL). 2010 and 2014 it was the "FIFA Ballon d'Or" with a different voting system, closer to the FIFA player of the year. But since it's back to the Ballon d'Or France Football's previous system, expect 2 to 3 WC finalists on the podium.