Edit:
Eden Hazard at 21 years. 2012-2013 season. 9 league goals in 34 games.
Eden Hazard at 22 years. 2013-2014 season 14 lelague goals in 35 games.
* Neymar Jr at 22, 2013-2014 season. 9 goals in 26 games (Turned 22 on February 2014)
* Neymar Jr at 23, 2014-2015 season, 22 goals in 34 league games (Turned 23 on February 2015)
So i decided to look up the scoring stats of a 22 year old Ousmane Dembele. (Turned 22, 15 days ago)
A player who is apparently 'Average' according to some here.
Then compare his goal stats with Neymar and other attackers/wingers around the same age/experience bracket.
What most of these guys have in common is they don't have an impressive scoring record around the 19-23 bracket.
You could probably describe that period as a developing phase for some of these guys before they start settling.
So with wingers, the goal scoring to appearances ratio among that age group is collectively low based on the statistics
For example a 21 year old Sterling scored 6 goals in 31 league games in 2015-2016
The same trend continues with other wingers.
Neymar would be the exception with his breakout season coming in his second year at FCB.
But you can form your own analysis. This is just how i see it.
I have been reading this forum for 7-8 years now.
And I am finally starting to understand some things.
In the past, I used to think: are majority of posters dumb or what?
But lately, I don't think that posters are dumb.
You just suffer from extreme delusions, you are too emotional, too romantic and too dreamy.
Barcelona and Barcaforum is your "safe place", where you can run from real life problems and here, everything is perfect.
Well, it is perfect at least on paper and in your minds, guys.
So, basically, in real world, outside of our forums, numbers say:
1. that 2 out 3 Barca's signings will fail, and only 1 out of 3 will turn into a starter or a first sub long term
2. in terms of La Masia players, a chance for each player (who is among 2-3 highest rated players in his generation) is around 5-10% to turn into a starter or into 12th, 13th player of a team
Those are facts from a real world.
On the other hand, we have our fans who have their own facts:
1. Alena will make it
2. Puig will make it
3. Oriol will make it
4. Wague is close also
5. Dembele is a generational talent
6. Malcom is a very good player
7. Arthur could be the next Xavi
8. there is nothing wrong with Semedo etc
Again, in real world, facts about players mentioned above are:
1. Dembele:
Pros: insane talent, pace, young
Cons: low IQ, not suitable for possession based teams, questionable professionalism, weak ball control, very bad passes, bad decisions, bad reading of the game, weak defending, meh shooting skills (inspite of his good goal ratio this season), weak chemistry with majority of teammates, not willing to learn a language, extremely injury prone.
So, basically, chances are probably 50:50 (or I would say: way worse than that) that he will turn into:
1) what you guys are expecting from him and that he will improve his decisions, tactical understanding, shooting, passing, chemistry. That he won't be injury prone anymore.
When you remove emotions: how likely is all of that, knowing Dembele's injuries, IQ and poor professionalism?
Also, Jairzinho, you posted cherry picking stats where you are mentioning examples of players who have linearly improved over time.
Fine. But that is another example of delusion and "a safe, dreamy place" for our fans.
Why haven't you mentioned 1000s of other examples where players haven't developed at all after the age of 19 or 22?
For example, what if Dembele will follow this path?
Bojan Krkic, age 18=10 La Liga goals.
Bojan Krkic, age 28=0 goals in a whole season
Bojan Krkic, age 29=1 goals in a whole season
Pedro, age 22=12 La Liga goals
Pedro, age 23=13 La Liga goals
Pedro, last 2 seasons, aged 30 and 31=4 and 8 goals.
Tello, aged 22=7 goals for Barca
Tello, (aged 27 today) last 4 seasons=2, 4, 4, 4 goals per season.
Halilovic, aged 17=5 goals for Dinamo in Croatia
Halilovic, aged 19=3 goals for Sporting Gijon
Halilovic, aged 23 today, last 3 seasons combined=0+2+0 goals. He plays for Standard Liege in Belgium today.
So, you assumed that Dembele will follow a path of linear and predictable development, where a player slowly improves in majority of skills over years.
But again, a lot of other players don't improve at all, or improve very slightly (not enough).
Also, you mentioned Neymar, he has reached his footballing peak aged 23 in a year 2015.
After that, it was all showboating, partying, poor finishing.
So, again, do you realize that Dembele could also be at his peak already and that it would all go downhill from now on?
But if you dare to ask questions like that, people will get upset because you are killing their dreams and they will reply: you are an idiot, you don't know nothing about football, this guy has cancerous posts, why isn't he banned yet?
About other players mentioned above, the same story.
One poster mentioned a few days ago how Oriol will be Busi's replacement, while in reality, we have bought:
Frenkie for that position, Arthur can play on that position, we wanted Rabiot for that position, we are considering Rodri for that position, we are linked with Ndombele for that position, Todibo was tried a few times on that position, we have just bought Reis for that position.
And Oriol isn't even called for a 1st team in meaningless matches.
So, which option makes more logic in a real world, outside of this dreamy-place?
1) Oriol will be our future pivot for the next 10 years?
2) or a club already discarded him and has moved to 5+ different options. Regarding him, if he will improve insanely=he will get some chances. If not, who cares, more or less, the club has moved on.
Also, one more thing from a real world.
Don't be too attached for Dembeles, Malcoms, Oriols, Puigs and similar.
1) their chances to make it are statistically always way weaker than you think
2) and with asking for miracles from him, you will just be disappointed and you will yell at coaches and everyone: why a player XX is not playing all the time? He is our future...
Here is a list (from a real world) of all of our midfield and attacking signings in the last 20 years:
Attackers:
1999: Dani Garcia, Simao Sabrosa
2000: Overmars, Alfonso Perez
2001: Saviola, Geovanni Deiberson
2002: -
2003: Ronaldinho, Quaresma,
2004: Eto'o, Larsson, Guily, Maxi Lopez
2005: Ezquerro
2006: Gudjohnsen
2007: Henry
2008: -
2009: Ibrahimovic, Keirrison
2010: Villa
2011: Alexis
2012: -
2013: Neymar
2014: Suarez
2015: -
2016: Paco
2017: Dembele
2018: Malcom, Prinze
2019: Griezmann ??
Midfielders:
1999: Litmanen
2000: Gerard Lopez, Petit
2001: Fabio Rochemback
2002: Riquelme, Mendieta
2003: Davids
2004: Deco, Edmilson, Albertini
2005: Van Bommel
2006: -
2007: Yaya Toure
2008: Keita
2009: -
2010: Afellay
2011: Fabregas
2012: Song
2013: -
2014: Rakitic
2015: Arda
2016: Gomes, Denis
2017: Paulinho, Coutinho
2018: Arthur, Vidal
2019: Frenkie
We bought 25 (!) attackers in the last 20 years and 24 midfielders.
And we were even blessed with Messi for 13 years here. So, one attacking spot was occupied with him.
So, even in 13 years of Messi, when we had only 2 attacking spots "free", we bought 12 new attacking players.
Plus, only in the last 13 years, we tried these La Masia attackers: Bojan, Tello, Cuenca, Gio Dos Santos, Jeffren, Pedro, Deulofeu, Sandro, Munir, Adama, Halilovic, Arnaiz, even Rafinha as a RW.
So, even in Messi's 13 years, we bought 12 new attackers and tried 13 La Masia attackers. That is 25 attackers in total over 13 years.
And even after 25 players tried, we are AGAIN in a search for a new winger/SS (Griezmann) or a new "9" (Jovic).
So, when you guys are writing posts like: Dembele and Malcom will be here for 10 years.
Or: Puig, Alena, Oriol (plus Dembele, Malcom) is our future core.
Seriously, how objective is that?
For guys who started follow Barca during Pep, you may think that Barca is keeping players for 10 years, since it happened with Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Busi, Puyol, Alves, Valdes.
But this was our the most successful era ever. And this is the only reason why we were buying LESS players than usual.
And even in the most successful era, we bought 25 new attackers over 20 years and tried 13 new La Masia attackers, and bought 24 new midfielders (lol), even though we had Xavi, Iniesta, Busi in a team.
My point: when we won't have Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, Busi=you can expect even more chaotic transfers.
And 1-2 new midfielders and 1-2 new attackers in each new season.
Before Pep's era:
For example:
Cocu: 6 years
Kluivert: 6 years
Ronald Koeman: 6 years
Ronaldinho: 5 years
Etoo: 5 years
Rivaldo: 5 years
Figo: 5 years
Stoichkov: 5+2 years
Romario: 2 years
So, when you guys post ideas: we should buy Jovic, we could have him for the next 10 years (Dembele-Jovic for 10 years). Lol, that will never happen.
Imo, buying 28 years old Griezmann is really not the end of a world, if he can offer 3-4 good seasons.
Barca's players lasting here for 1 cycle of 3-4-5 years is way more realistic than expecting players:
1. to make it at a young age
2. plus, staying here for 10 years
I don't mean anything bad, but a majority of posters here have some weird fixations on:
young signings
young La Masia players
players staying here for 10 years
And people are not willing to listening anything bad about our players.