Your entire POV on this is totally wrong.
Nobody is saying he's going to become a superstar 100% certain. The odds are always in your favour when saying a youngster is not going to make it because how many actually make it into the first team? The only problem people are having is that we are letting a lot of talented guys go without giving them a shot in the first team first. Even if the player only turns out to be half decent, the majority of the supporters would rather have Grimaldo as a squad player than a foreigner like Douglas.
If you actually think I'm complaining because I consider every youngster leaving a future first eleven player you are out of your mind.
Buying Douglas was a criminal act, connected with 10s of criminal acts regarding Neymar's transfer.
So, let's try to forget Douglas and talk about "regular" transfers.
My problem with this is that we (Barca) acted the same way with youngsters in 90s or 00s.
For example, 2004-05 was my "favorite" Season, when we won a title after 6 years of waiting, I was watching every single match, reading the news about our team 24/7.
This was our team back then:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004%E2%80%9305_FC_Barcelona_season
-- now, those were different times, different Ateam coach (Rijkaard), different president (Laporta), different Bteam coaches, different youngsters
-- look one example:
-- we started the season with these central defenders:
1. Puyol CB
2. Marquez, CB-Defensive midfielder
3. Edmilson, CB-Defensive midfielder
4. Oleguer as the only alternative, CB-RB
5. young 20 years old, La Masia defender, Rodri
From full backs, we had:
-- on the right: Belletti, Gabri (something like Sergi Roberto today, but slightly better, he could play on every single position on the field) possibly Oleguer, and a 22 years old, Damia (highly rated back then)
-- on the left, Van Bronckhorst, Sylvinho, Fernando Navarro
-- we bough a lot of new players that summer (Etoo, Guily, Larsson, Edmilson, Deco, Belletti) and wanted to win La Liga and a CL
-- already in September, Motta and Gabri suffered cruciate knee ligaments
-- that meant that Edmilson needs to play as a CDM, and that our defenders are now only:
-- 1. Puyol
-- 2. Marquez
-- 3. Oleguer
-- 4. Rodri
= for the whole Season (Motta and Gabri were out for the Season)
-- but then, in October and December, Edmilson and Larsson suffered the same knee injury
-- out for the season, also
-- that now meant that Motta and Edmilson are lost as defensive midfielders and that a CB Marquez needs to play as a defensive midfielder till the end of the season
-- in defense, our only options were:
1. Puyol
2. Oleguer
3. young Rodri
-- also, on the right back, Gabri was injured, Oleguer couldn't play since he needed to play as the only CB option till the end of the season, and we had only Belletti and young Damia, who never played
My point is:
= even back then, when we had a very thin squad and we were crippled by 4 major injuries and a lot of smaller injuries:
= Rijkaard, Laporta and Txiki (director) didn't suddenly promote 2-3-5 youngsters to test them
-- till the end of the season:
-- Marquez played as a defensive midfielder almost all the time (current Bteam coach Gerard Lopez jumped in a few times as the 4th option)
-- Puyol and Oleguer needed to play 60 matches together, without a rest
-- the only youngster who profited was Iniesta, because he had more room both in midfield due to injuries and in attack, where he was used as a LW, since we had only Ronnie, Etoo and Guily now (Larsson injured, and Messi hasn't emerged yet)
-- in defense, Rodri earned some minutes in cup and a few minutes in La liga
-- but the coach soon realized that he is not good enough for Barca
-- and even though we had only 2 playable defenders (Puyol and Oleguer), and one of them was Oleguer (at whom people often laugh)
= and now, imagine if Puyol and Oleguer played 60 matches, imagine how "bad" or how much better Oleguer was than ALL OTHERS Bteam prospects in that time
-- but my point, it is easy to say today, in 2015: Rodri wasn't good enough for Barca
-- we didn't have a forum in 2015, but if we had, I am pretty sure that 90% of people would yell: come on, Rijkaard, give a chance to Rodri, he looks awesome, this is the perfect opportunity. He can't be worse than Oleguer. Or, he will prove his worth if you give him chances
-- but Rijkaard (luckily) didn't believe in Rodri, and we won La Liga after 6 years of waiting. Who knows what would have happened if he played youngsters?
-- also, at RB, he gave a few chances to 22 years old Damia
-- but the coach wasn't pleased with his defending, and we soon returned to playing Puyol-Oleguer-Belletti in 90% of matches for 90 minutes
So, basically we played the whole campaign of 2014-15 with 14 players:
-- Gk Valdes
-- central defenders: Puyol, Oleguer
-- full backs: Van Bronckhorst, Sylvinho, Belletti
-- midfielders: Marquez, Xavi, Iniesta, Deco, Gerard Lopez
-- attack: Ronaldinho, Etoo, Guily
-- plus youngsters: CB Rodri, RB Damia, MC Verdu, MC-winger Javito, LB Fernando Navarro
My point is, people are whining that today we have injuries and that we need La Masia "talents" to jump in and fill the hole.
But today we have: Bravo, Mats, Pique, Mathieu, Verm, Masch, Bartra, Alba, Adriano, Alves, Busi, Iniesta, Raki, Sergi, Messi, Neymar, Suarez
= 17 players WITHOUT youngsters and injured players like Douglas, Rafinha, Munir, Sandro, Gumbau
-- so, if you think that today our squad is thin and crippled, then imagine how it was in 2004-2005 (winning) Season
-- and even though we played with 14 players 24/7, we gave a few minutes only to Rodri and Damia, but we soon gave up on them
I know, some fans will say: But that generation of Bteam players wasn't as good as the current one (lol, that doesn't make sense)
= I want to say: we had Munir's, Sandro's, Samper's (Joan Verdu was rated as extremely talented and smart midfielder with awesome future back then, Rodri was rated as the future squad player, Damia was the most talented RB in the last 10 years...)
-- so, that Bteam was filled with players of the same quality as Samper (Verdu), or with much better potentials than Grimaldo (Rodri and Damia)
-- but more or less, none of them got chances
Again, imagine how forum would be pissed at Rijkaard if we had a forum in 2004.
We had 14 players and he refused to play "a future 1st players from La Masia" in Javito, Verdu, Rodri, Damia, Fernando Navarro
-- he played "only" Iniesta
Again, it is easy to be "smart" today, 10 years later, but isn't there a chance that both Rijkaard, Txiki, bteam coaches and other scouts already "knew" who out of these guys has the chance to make it in Barca, and who will be just a player for a random La Liga or segunda teams
So, from all youngsters, Rijkaard believed only in Iniesta.
Guess what, only Iniesta turned into a world class player after all. (Not because they believed in him, but because he was probably much better than other guys aged 19 or 20).
Also, in that Season we had 14 players, and Rijkaard didn't give chances to youngsters.
The funny thing is:
= in the next Season, our 4 players recovered, and we even bought experienced midfielder Van Bommel and an experienced older winger from Bilbao in Santiago Ezquerro.
And now, in a season 2005/06, Rijkaard and our staff registered 10 of youngsters:
-- defenders Rodri, Pena, Jesus Olmo
-- midfielders Joan Verdu, Jordi Gomez, Pitu, Cristian, Martos, Sylvestre
-- and some young kid named Lionel Messi
That kid already played aged 17 at the end of the last Season, and soon started to be an undisputed starter after 2 Months, aged 18, even though we had 6 attackers for 3 positions:
1. Ronaldinho, the best player in the world
2. Etoo, like Neymar today
3. Larsson, like Villa aged 32+
4. Guily
5. Ezquerro, a starter and the best player in Bilbao
My point is:
-- Rijkaard didn't give too many chances to youngsters back then, because he probably thought that those guys are not good enough for Barca's level
-- in 2004-05, only Iniesta got a lot chances. Their estimation was right
-- in 2005/06, out of 10 registered youngsters, only Messi was given a chance, but RIGHT AWAY
-- so, imagine if you have 10 youngsters, and you don't give a chance to 9 of them
-- and the 10th guy gets a starting 11 spot right away
Anyway, what I wanted to say in this long story?
1. you are all making a fuss now, as if this has never happened before, and as if we are letting 10s of new Messi's to leave our club in each season
-- compared with Lucho, Rijkaard was the biggest "idiot" ever in terms of La Masia kids
-- but now, the question is: whether Rijkaard was an idiot who didn't have faith in La Masia kids, or he was just realistic and had a good eye to determine who is worth to give a shot, and who has almost =0% chances to reach Barca's standard?
-- so, yes, the same (or much worse) situations happened in the past
-- and we survived, and actually Rijkaard won 2 La ligas in those 2 years, and won us first Champions league since 1992'
= WITHOUT giving chances to youngsters, except to a world class youngsters like Messi and Iniesta
I am watching this development of our youngsters for the last 20 years, and imo, it is always the same:
-- each season we will have 5-10 new youngsters
-- 1 or 2 will get chances
-- 0 or 1 will turn into something
-- 9 players will turn into a segunda level of players
While for most of you, it is something like:
-- each season we will have 5-10 players
-- and too many of you think that 3-4-5 of players in each season will turn into a Barca's quality, because you are blinded with that lucky/golden generation of our players