Actually i think if FFP becomes fully implemented it will prevent a European Super League. Like i said before the elite clubs have a lot of power and UEFA know this very well. FFP is just to make sure the big clubs or status quo dont defect or make their own super league by making sure clubs like PSG and Man C dont start upsetting the balance. Thats the only way to get clubs like RM and even Chelsea to agree to such a financial plan. If UEFA really cared they would put some type of salary cap or implement stricter rules to curb spending but their is no doubt in my mind the big clubs would break away and make their own league. At the moment i dont see a European Super League happening cause at the moment UEFA seems to be appeasing the big clubs with how much the Champions League brings to them but dont expect much parity in football cause of FFP....
That's the thing. FFP means maintaining status quo for the top level; and that is my main concern.
Looking at the contract player budget
- Bayern have a budget of ~140 mil. Financially, the most healthy club in Germany and Europe. Given their success, expect this number to increase in the following years.
- Schalke have a budget of ~ 80 mil, and this is where the problems start, because Schalke is actually a debt ridden mess. Thankfully, german clubs don't have to present a group balance sheet in order to take part in UEFA competitions, so the fact that Schalke hides debts in subsidiary companies goes unnoticed. Yet, they are not very successful on the athletic level and are sitting on a financial time-bomb. Combined with some home-made problems like the kinda awkward club environment and a chairman with delusions of grandeur, you have a recipe for disaster. In the long run, there's only one realistic direction: downhill.
- Dortmund have a budget of ~ 68 mil. 3rd on the list, and already at about 50 % of what Bayern have in store. Successful in the recent past and on the way to financial stability after coming back from the (almost) dead. I'd still put a question mark behind a forecast because this can go either way.
- Wolfsburg is at ~ 50 mil. 100 % owned by Volkswagen AG.
- Leverkusen is at ~ 48 mil. 100 % owned by Bayer AG.
The rest range somewhere between 15 mil (Braunschweig) and 40 mil (Hamburg). There is already a noticeable gap between Bayern and the rest, and given that domestic TV income is already fairly distributed (so this set screw is already used), one can only expect the difference to grow in the future.
Don't get me wrong; because all things considered Bayern worked hard to get to the top of the food chain - the problem for me is that there is no way out of this situation for the other clubs in the long run, which is mostly down to the 50+1 rule. Just like in economics, where the existence of a giant monopoly slowly suffocates the other participants of a free market, a football superpower will slowly suffocate the competitors in the league.
Back to the FFP; the question for me is whether fans,especially foreign ones, will find it interresting to watch Bayern rampage through the league year after year in the future. Making a daring guess, I'd say that in 10-15 years from now, the top level clubs will be so far away from everyone else that the ESL basically becomes a necessity if the UEFA aims to keep things interresting. And, in my opinion, that's a direct and intended consequence of FFP.