Chainsaw
Killahead
yea and PL is the best league in the world and Chelsea is the best team in Europe right ?
When the 15th club of your league is in the QF of UCL you know your league is the best!
Champions League 2016/17
- Thread starter Pablo Escobar
- Start date
When the 15th club of your league is in the QF of UCL you know your league is the best!
serghei
Senior Member
Does it strike you as unreasonable for UEFA to want the biggest teams to play against each other in the semis, or in the final? From a marketing perspective, it would be a dream for the competition. There are reasons why UEFA would orchestrate some patterns in the draws, but wether they would actually risk doing that is another matter. Don't think it's a science fiction scenario though.
JamDav1982
Senior Member
So Uefa last year want Barca in the semis and give them Atletico in the QF who have been one of three strongest teams in europe. When teams like Wolfsburg, PSG, Man City and Benfica are in the draw?
Year before that they drew Real vs Atletico in QF.
Year before that Barca got Atletico in QF and Real got current runners up Dortmund.
Makes no sense to keep teams apart then give still give very hard draws in QF.
Also in 2011 Real and Barca in semi finals drew each other when this dream classico final was on the cards.
JamDav1982
Senior Member
Dont think the 43% chance of El Classico is correct.
The chances of Barca v Real is 6/1 surely and why would it be more likely than an all Spanish tie which includes a classico?
The chances of Barca v Real is 6/1 surely and why would it be more likely than an all Spanish tie which includes a classico?
BBZ8800
Senior Member
From a perspective of neutral fans, Barca and Real are the 2 most protected teams in terms of draws and referee's decisions over the last 10 years.
Barca's fan may point fingers to matches against Inter and similar.
But in general, Barca really never faced the toughest team in 1/8s or in 1/4s.
Not to mention 10s of calls in our favor over years whenever we were in troubles (except 2-3 rare occasions).
I am of course Barca's fan, but imo, we had the biggest amount of ref's help in the last 10 years in a CL.
While RM had the easiest draw in the last 5 years.
Now combine some patterns:
1. in my post you could see that top teams of any era NEVER faced eachother in early knockout rounds (except in 1 season out of 17 seasons)
2. Barca, RM, Bayern NEVER faced eachother before semis in the last few years, even though they could have been drawn in 1/4s each time (and sometimes even in 1/8s)
3. Bayern and Real had some ridiculously easy draws in the last few years
(Barca's fan could say: we needed to face Psg, City and similar, while Real had to face weaker teams. That is true, but again, Barca didn't have to face RM or Bayern nor once until semis in the last 5 years. So, Barca didn't get monkey-easy opponents, but Barca also still never had to play against one out of top3 teams in those years, before semis).
Ok, let me explain further.
Let's say that you have 3 levels of draws (a good draw for Uefa, an average draw and a horrible draw for Uefa).
Top3 teams who need to be protected are Barca, Real and Bayern.
Now, in 1/8s, these are the possibilities:
1. monkey easy draw for all 3 teams (Apoel, Shakthtar, Schalke, Leverkusen, Benfica, Ajax etc)
2. opponent of an average strength. Not a monkey easy like Apoel and Benfica, but still also NOT a world class club. In this moment, that would mean: Monaco, Borrussia, Juventus, Atletico
3. horrible draw, when you pair Barca-Real-Bayern together
So, Uefa's dream scenario would be to draw Barca/Real/Bayern against Apoel, Shakhtar, Napoli and similar in 1/8s.
Or, in the worst case, to create some mix of 1-2 easy draws (for 2 teams) and one team getting a team of a medium strength (Arsenal, Liverpool, current Milan and similar)
Psg is slightly stronger, but still not too far away from this. Psg doesn't have any world class results in Europe in the last 5 years, and in a current season they are not even leaders in France. So, Psg isn't a monkey-easy draw, but it is still a classic: average draw for a top team.
In seasons where there are lots of weaker teams in a draw, it is easy to rig a draw.
In some seasons, draw is filled with okish teams like Arsenal, Liverpoool, City, Man Utd, Milan, Juve, Inter, Borussia, Psg, Monaco etc and then best teams just HAVE to get drawn with teams of a medium strength.
But again, Uefa will AVOID pairing top 3-4 teams together.
About last year, when we lost to Atletico, Atletico WASN'T in top 3 since top3 are always Barca, Real, Bayern.
From UEFA's point of view, it probably looked like this:
-- we have 8 teams in 1/4s:
-- we have top3 teams who need to be protected and who can't play together:
1. Barca 2. Real 3. Bayern
-- we have 3 teams of average strength:
4. Psg 5. Atletico 6. Man City
-- we have 2 teams who are weak for this level:
7. Wolfsburg 8. Benfica
Now, what is an ideal scenario for Uefa?
= they want to have Barca, Real and Bayern in semis
That means that 2 of them will get monkey-easy opponents, and 1 out of these 3 teams will have to play against one out of Psg, City and Atletico.
The worst scenario for Uefa is:
Barca-Real
Barca-Bayern
Real-Bayern in 1/4s, since they would lose one of 3 the most popular teams who bring the highest amount of money and viewers.
Also, what Uefa don't want to see is:
Benfica and Wolfsburg drawn together, since we would have 1 outsider who wouldn't attract too many viewers in semis.
Also, Uefa would like to avoid a draw with medium strength team paired with a weak opponent.
So, Uefa will try to avoid:
1. top3 teams playing together in 1/4s
2. Benfica and Wolfsburg playing together also
3. but also Psg/City/Atletico being drawn with Benfica/Wolfsburg
So, all in all, ideal scenario for Uefa is:
1. to get Barca, Real, Bayern in semis
2. and to get one out of Psg, City, Ateltico in semis
The only way to do this is:
1. to pair 2 out of 3 (Barca, Real, Bayern) with Benfica+Wolfsburg. And the 3rd out of those top3 will have to face one club of medium strength (Psg, City, AM)
2. in the 4th pair, 2 out of 3 (Psg, City, AM) will play together
And voila, you put a heated balls in a draw, and what do you get?
The best possible and predictable draw:
Real:Wolfsburg
Bayern:Benfica
Barca:AM
Psg:City
About Atletico, you asked why we were paired with them?
Well, 1 out of top3 teams had to play against one team of a medium strength.
Also, didn't we win against Atletico like 4-5 times in a row in that season before a CL match and we were on that insane-hot-winning streak back then?
So, in Uefa's eyes: AM lost 4-5 times in a row against Barca and Barca were in insane form (and current winners of a CL).
It should have been a somewhat easy or okish draw for Barca.
Just look at 5 last seasons:
1. top3 teams got easier or mediocre teams in 1/8s each time
2. top3 teams got easier or mediocre teams in 1/4s each time
3. top3 teams never faced eachother in 1/8s or 1/4s in the last 5 years (or in the last 17 years, as seen in my post from yesterday)
1/8s:
Barca's opponents in the last 5-6 years:
2012: Leverkusen (easy)
2013: Milan (easy to mediocre)
2014: Man City (mediocre)
2015: Man City (mediocre)
2016: Arsenal (mediocre)
2017: Psg (mediocre)
Real 1/8:
2012. Cska Moscow (easy)
2013. Man Utd (mediocre)
2014. Schalke (easy)
2015. Schalke (easy)
2016. Roma (easy)
2017. Napoli (easy)
People say that RM has an easy draw. True, compared to us.
But also, take a look at Bayern's draw over years. They constantly have a monkey-easy draw:
2012: Basel (easy)
2013: Arsenal (mediocre)
2014: Arsenal (mediocre)
2015: Shakhtar (easy)
2016: Juventus (mediocre)
2017: Arsenal (mediocre)
1/4s, Barca:
2012: Milan
2013: Psg
2014: Atletico
2015: Psg
2016: Atletico
Real:
2012: Apoel
2013: Galatasaray
2014: Borussia
2015: Atletico
2016: Wolfsburg
Bayern:
2012: Marseille
2013: Juventus
2014: Man Utd
2015: Porto
2016: Benfica
Again, Barca had the toughest draw out of 3 top teams.
But still, we never had to play top3 teams before semis.
Also, draws of Bayern are ridiculous also.
1/4s with Porto, Benfica, Marseille in the last 5 years. Never Barca, Real or any bigger team.
Barca and Real are the biggest and richest teams in the world, with the highest number of fans, and with 2 biggest superstars: Messi and CR7.
Bayern comes from the richest EU country, Germany. A lot of money is involved from Germany, so Uefa needs a strong, rich and popular Bayern also.
All in all, for tomorrow's draw, I would put money on:
1. Barca/Real/Bayern won't face eachother
2. Barca/Real/Bayern will play against Leicester
3. also, quite likely that Monaco will be paired with Barca/Real/Bayern also, plus/or Borussia will play against Barca or Real (NOT against Bayern since they could knock them out).
For Barca's draw, look for:
1. Leicester
2. Monaco
3. Borussia
Highly unlikely Barca's draw:
1. Real
2. Bayern
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JamDav1982
Senior Member
Barca have not had easy draws in the last 16 and at that point it is still seeded and teams from same countries cannot draw one another so almost impossible Barca, Real and Bayern meet at that stage.
Dont care what nuetrals think. None of what you have posted anything at all and the one time there was the greatest chance to have an el classico final in 2011 Barca and Real were drawn apart.
In terms of chances Real/Barca/Bayern should have probably drawn one another twice in last five years. The fact that hasnt happened is nothing completely against the odds.
If UEFA want Barca/Bayern and Real through to semis it is contradicted by tough draws in QF which has happened in the past few years.
If you are so sure and 'would put money on' go and do it and let us know your bets.
Dont care what nuetrals think. None of what you have posted anything at all and the one time there was the greatest chance to have an el classico final in 2011 Barca and Real were drawn apart.
In terms of chances Real/Barca/Bayern should have probably drawn one another twice in last five years. The fact that hasnt happened is nothing completely against the odds.
If UEFA want Barca/Bayern and Real through to semis it is contradicted by tough draws in QF which has happened in the past few years.
If you are so sure and 'would put money on' go and do it and let us know your bets.
khaled_a_d
Senior Member
It is more suspecious that since A.Madrid became a powerhouse in Europe they are yet to play a non-spanish team in QF. Spain was never allowed the chance to get 3 teams in SF like PL did b4,I know they changed the role as back then teams from same country weren't allowed to play each other,still very suspicious.
That said all of those clubs are worth Billions,while UEFA is stronger it is still really difficult to imagin them fixing draws while other clubs not going to try to fight against it.
JamDav1982
Senior Member
It is one thing having the desire to fix draws for money - which would probably include more beneficial draws of EPL teams when by far biggest tv contracts come from the UK.
It is another to start asking tens and tens of ex players of all clubs to take part in it on live tv and expect that they either all agree or none of them expose it. There is just not enough for individuals to gain to take that level of risk.
The draws are rigged up until the QF stage anyway through seedings and rankings.
BBZ8800
Senior Member
JamDav, I should put some money on it, you are right.
After reading my post again and thinking about some scenarios:
Uefa won't pair Bayern and Borussia probably.
Leicester will be paired with Barca, Real or Bayern, but since Bayern won't face Borussia, then Bayern has higher chances to get Leicester or Monaco.
So, imo, according to what Uefa has been doing for years, in my eyes the most probable is:
Bayern:Leicester
Barca:Monaco
Real:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Real:Leicester
Bayern:Monaco
Barca:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Barca:Leicester
Bayern:Monaco
Real:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Bayern:Leicester
Barca:Borussia
Real:Monaco
Juve:AM
Imo, those 4 are the most likely.
Or, in the "average" case scenario, 2 out of 3 (Barca, Real, Bayern) will face Leicester/Monaco (or even Borussia), while 1 club out of top3 will get a stronger opponent like Juve or AM.
So, imo:
1. monkey-easy draw, with Barca/Real/Bayern paired with Leicester/Monaco/Borussia (with Bayern NOT facing Borussia)
2. average draw, but still rigged with 2 teams out of top3 facing Leicester/Monaco/Borussia (not Bayern against Borussia again) and 1 out of top3 teams getting Juve/AM to slightly spice things up, but not too much
Again, I don't believe that there are too high chances to see:
Barca/Real/Bayern facing eachother in 1/4s.
Again, we'll see tomorrow.
It will be interesting if a predictable draw will happen again
After reading my post again and thinking about some scenarios:
Uefa won't pair Bayern and Borussia probably.
Leicester will be paired with Barca, Real or Bayern, but since Bayern won't face Borussia, then Bayern has higher chances to get Leicester or Monaco.
So, imo, according to what Uefa has been doing for years, in my eyes the most probable is:
Bayern:Leicester
Barca:Monaco
Real:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Real:Leicester
Bayern:Monaco
Barca:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Barca:Leicester
Bayern:Monaco
Real:Borussia
Juve:AM
Or:
Bayern:Leicester
Barca:Borussia
Real:Monaco
Juve:AM
Imo, those 4 are the most likely.
Or, in the "average" case scenario, 2 out of 3 (Barca, Real, Bayern) will face Leicester/Monaco (or even Borussia), while 1 club out of top3 will get a stronger opponent like Juve or AM.
So, imo:
1. monkey-easy draw, with Barca/Real/Bayern paired with Leicester/Monaco/Borussia (with Bayern NOT facing Borussia)
2. average draw, but still rigged with 2 teams out of top3 facing Leicester/Monaco/Borussia (not Bayern against Borussia again) and 1 out of top3 teams getting Juve/AM to slightly spice things up, but not too much
Again, I don't believe that there are too high chances to see:
Barca/Real/Bayern facing eachother in 1/4s.
Again, we'll see tomorrow.
It will be interesting if a predictable draw will happen again
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JamDav1982
Senior Member
Covering a lot of scenarios there that are statistically likely to happen proves nothing.
The odds are the Barca, Real or Bayern wont meet so nothing against odds predicted.
While it is 50/50 that Barca would get Monaco, Dortmund or Leicester but use the more likely scenario as evidence of cheating.
All you are really doing is going with the odds at this stage.
The odds are the Barca, Real or Bayern wont meet so nothing against odds predicted.
While it is 50/50 that Barca would get Monaco, Dortmund or Leicester but use the more likely scenario as evidence of cheating.
All you are really doing is going with the odds at this stage.
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khaled_a_d
Senior Member
Yeah I agree with you,I mean I can't deny there are many suspicious things in it and can get where people coming with those theories from but there is just too many things involved in it to make it impossible,PL clubs who have most money and even other wealthy clubs like PSG,Juve,BVB etc or even Barca when seeing draws rigged for RM.non would be silent about it. Also your point of all those ex-players who need to buy their loyalty and silence.
BBZ8800
Senior Member
EPL teams are rich, but not strong.
How will you protect EPL teams?
Arsenal:
-- they will lose to Barca, RM, Bayern
-- they will lose to Juve, Psg, Atletico
-- they will be 50:50 or lose against Monaco, Napoli, Borussia etc
They will lose against almost any team. And in quarters they will lose against any team again.
City? The same
They can't compete with Barca, RM, Bayern.
They will struggle or lose against Atletico, Juve, Psg.
They will lose even to Napoli, Monaco and similar.
Tottenham? I don't even need to write.
Liverpool, the same.
Man Utd, the same.
Only current Chelsea could win against some mediocre teams in a CL 1/8s and maybe in 1/4s.
JamDav1982
Senior Member
If it is all about money then protecting the EPL teams make sense. Give them easier ties than they have been getting in last 16 gives better chance.
None of it is happening anyway. Just like none of the big teams are being protected and no refs are cheating to favour Barca as you make out.
Whats your bets for the draw then?
BBZ8800
Senior Member
How is Real buying referees and Spanish federation in La liga?
Don't you think that Barca knows that La liga is rigged and that refs help to Real.
What can you do?
It just goes on for years.
Politics, interests and corruption are everywhere where a lot of money is involved.
Wasn't FIFA rotten from the top a few years ago, and weren't FIFA WC tournaments rigged in terms who will be a host, for years?
Police needed like 30-50 years to do something.
A scandal on France-Ireland match a few years ago.
How that never happens for Faroe Islands, Estonia or Malta?
Since they are not rich and FIFA/Uefa don't care about pushing those countries and do everything to have them in tournaments.
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