A long post/conspiracy theory incoming with some stats from a CL.
About my previous post above, my theory is still that Uefa will try to "get" their best 2-3 teams into semis WITHOUT facing them before that.
Then in semis and in a final: they won't intervene anymore, it is just football.
I have checked some draws from 2000 till today, there are some interesting patterns:
1999: Final: Man Utd:Bayern 2:1
That means that they won't face eachother in the next season if possible.
2000's draw, 1/4 was the first knockout round back then (we had 2 levels of group stage before that)
1/4: winners Man Utd:Real, Man utd knocked out
-- finalists Bayern faced poor Porto
2000's final: Real vs Valencia. RM was a big team, and Valencia is outsider. That means that in the next season, Uefa will "help" to Real, but won't help to Valencia
-- let's see 2000/01 now:
1/4, Real was drawn with Galatasaray (who would say?)
While Valencia faced Arsenal, with Man Utd, their strongest team back then.
Valencia ruined Uefa's plans and reached CL finals again.
Final: Bayern won against Valencia. According to my theory, Uefa will help to Bayern and Real in the next season, and NOT to Valencia, they don't want "outsiders" in finals too often.
2001/02:
1/4: Bayern was drawn with Real, but but but
-- Bayern finished 2nd in their CL group (2nd level of group stage) behind Man Utd
-- so, Bayern couldn't faced Man Utd since they played in the same group
-- their other possible opponents were group winners Barcelona, Real and Bayer Leverkusen. Iirc, I think that you couldn't play with a team from the same country in quarters
-- and that meant that Bayern could be drawn only against Barca or Real
-- so, Uefa couldn't help too much in that season, Bayern ruined themselves
Real won against Bayern in 1/4s, against Barca in 1/2 semis and against Bayer Leverkusen in a final.
That means that after a few seasons of outsiders in finals (Valencia, Valencia, Leverkusen), Uefa will try to help to Real, Bayern, Man Utd in the next season (at least in quarters where there are lots of easy opponents)
Let's see...
2002/03:
-- Real ended 2nd in their group and couldn't have played with Milan (their group winners).
Other options were: Barca (not possible, same country), Valencia (same country).
So, Real could have played only against 4th option: Man Utd
Uefa couldn't help here.
Real won, but lost to Juve in semis.
In a final Milan won against Juve.
My prediction: Uefa will try to avoid matches between Real, Bayern, Milan (current winners) in the next season early knockout rounds (Bayern and Real were the biggest teams back then and Milan was a current champion, so Uefa is protecting top 2-3 teams all the time, till semis):
2003/04:
-- champion Milan got the easiest opponent: Sparta Prague (lol)
-- but Bayern and Real were drawn together (!) in the 1/8 this time. (This is the first season without 2 rounds of group stage, and we had 1/8s for the first time)
-- so, this is the only season where Uefa didn't do their "job" in draws (Bayern finished 2nd in their group)
Uefa didn't rig too much, and later Real lost to Monaco in 1/4s and Milan lost to Deportivo in 1/4 in the epic comeback
-- and in a final we had Porto and Monaco
-- my prediction is that Uefa won't protect these outsiders, but only classic big teams: Real, Bayern, Milan in 2004/05
2004/05:
-- Milan was drawn with Man Utd, and won
-- Real (2nd placed) lost to Juve
-- Bayern (even though 2nd placed) played against Arsenal
-- so, once again, biggest 2-3-4 teams didn't face eachother in the 1st round
In a final: Liverpool won against Milan
-- Uefa won't protect Liverpool since they aren't one of the classic big teams.
Uefa will continue to protect Milan, Real. But now a new big team emerged: Barcelona with Ronaldinho and Etoo. From now on, Uefa will protect Barca in opening rounds also.
Imo, Bayern lost their status of "protected" team now.
Let's see:
2005/06:
Barca faced Chelsea and won.
Real (2nd placed in a group) lost against Arsenal.
Milan won against Bayern who wasn't strong and protected anymore.
A new Uefa's favorite, Barca, won against crappy Benfica in 1/4s and easily got to semis.
Then they faced Bayern and Barca won against Arsenal in a final.
In the next season, my prediction: Uefa will help to Barca, Real, Milan as richest teams now. They won't protect Arsenal, Liverpool and similar.
Bayern is not protected anymore either.
Let's see.
2006/07:
Milan faced Celtic
Winners Barca (2nd placed in their group) faced not too strong Liverpool, but lost
Real (2nd placed) faced and lost to Bayern who was mediocre for years.
In a final Milan won against Liverpool.
In the next season, Uefa will again protect Milan and Barca. And possibly Real (who is horrible for years, but needs to be brought back to top, Uefa needs a strong Real).
2007/08:
Real faced Roma (and lost... They couldn't do anything even with all the help back then)
Uefalona Barca (lol) faced Celtic (a predictable draw)
Milan faced Arsenal, and lost.
In a final, Man Utd won against Chelsea.
So, we have a change in top teams now. Uefa will now try to avoid matches between: Barca, Real, CR7's Man Utd, Chelsea and Milan in the opening knockout stage.
Let's see:
2008/09:
Milan didn't play a CL at all
Barca faced Lyon
Real (2nd placed) faced Liverpool (and lost)
New kids: Man Utd with a new star CR7 faced Inter
Chelsea (2nd placed) faced Juve (who returned to Seria A)
Barca won a final against Man Utd, we had Messi vs Cr7 final.
Imo, Uefa will protect Barca, Real, Man Utd and Chelsea again, they are top teams in that moment.
2009/10:
Winners Barca faced Stuttgart (lol)
Real faced Lyon, and lost again (sadly for Uefa)
Man Utd faced poor Milan
Chelsea faced Inter and lost
In a final, Inter won against Bayern.
Now we have a new shift in strength. CR7 is in Real, and they will need a bigger protection. Man Utd is not that popular without a CR7 and they are losing protection.
Chelsea lost Mou, so they are not that popular anymore. Bayern is back again.
So, Barca, CR7's Real and Bayern will surely get huge protection.
While Inter and Chelsea could get a 2nd tier of protection.
But, Barca/Real/Bayern are a MUST from now on.
Let's see:
2010/11:
Barca faced Arsenal and were helped by refs.
Real faced Lyon again and finally won.
Bayern faced Inter and lost, which was a tough draw, but still, Uefa kept their main stars: Barca, Real and Bayern=without facing eachother in the 1st round.
Barca won against Real in semis and against Man U in a final.
Uefa will protect Barca, Real, Bayern and maybe Man Utd.
2011/12:
Barca faced Leverkusen
Real faced CSKA Moscow (CR7's effect)
Bayern faced Basel, lel
Uefa's job was done even later, as always, in 1/4s they avoided matches between their richest teams and:
CR7's RM faced Apoel (Lel)
Bayern faced Marseille
Barca faced Milan
In a final Bayern won agaisnt Chelsea.
In this era, Uefa will again try to protect 3 giants: Messi's Barca, Cr7's Real and Bayern
2012/13:
Barca faced Milan
Real (2nd placed) faced poor Man Utd
Bayern faced Arsenal
In 1/4s, Uefa will try to avoid matches between 3 giants:
Barca vs Psg
Real vs Galatasaray (Cr7's effect again)
Bayern vs Juve
-- after that, 2 out 3 teams have to play together in semis
Bayern won a CL against Borrussia.
Next year Uefa will again protect Barca, Real and Bayern.
2013/14:
Barca vs Man City
Real vs Schalke (Cr7s effect)
Bayern vs Psg
In quarters, AGAIN there is no way that top3 teams will play together, let's see:
Barca vs Atletico
Real vs Borrusia
Bayern vs Man Utd
Real won a CL against Atletico.
In the next year, Uefa will again protect Barca, Real and Bayern.
2014/15:
Barca vs Man City
Real vs Schalke (lol)
Bayern vs Shakthtar (lol)
In 1/4s, Uefa will do a job AGAIN with avoiding matches between Barca, Real and Bayern, as always:
Barca vs Psg
Real vs Atletico
Bayern vs Porto
Uefa raised the bar even higher and tried to rig a Barca vs Real from this moment, but Real/Juve ruined their plans.
So, it is quite simple: top3 teams will play against weaker teams in 1/8. Then they won't face eachother in 1/4s.
Then, if possible, Barca and Real WON'T face eachother in semis and Uefa dreams about Messi vs Cr7 CL's final.
Barca won against Juve in a final.
In the next year, Uefa will again protect Barca, Real and Bayern only.
2015/16:
Barca vs Arsenal
Real vs Roma
Bayern vs Juve
-- in 1/4s, the same, top teams will NEVER face eachother:
Barca vs Atletico
Real vs Wolfsburg (lol)
Bayern vs Benfica (lol also)
With only RM and Bayern from top teams in semis, of course that they won't face eachother in semis.
In a final, Real won against AM.
2016/17 Uefa will protect Barca, Real, Bayern again.
Barca vs Psg
Real (2nd in a group) vs Napoli (lol)
Bayern (2nd in a group) vs Arsenal
** so, in the last 18 years, UEFA drawn top teams together too early only once, in 2003/04 Real vs Bayern.
In all other 17 season, as seen above, everything was happening EXACTLY according to a plan.
Top 2-3-4 teams in THAT moment are never facing eachother in 1/8s and in 1/4s.
(The only surprise was Barca vs Real semis in 2011)
So, again, imo, Uefa is not helping to Real Madrid.
Uefa is doing this crap since always with top 2-3 teams to whom they are helping with draws and with penalties, red cards and similar.
Money, money, money, more tv viewers, more sponsors.