According to MD, we will lose out $20.2m if we fail to qualify for the CL group of 16, that's the amount that the club had initially budgeted so failure to advance out of the group stages will have some serious consequences and impact on our bottom line this season (forecasted with a 1m profit). MD didn't say how much money participating in the EL would earn, I don't think we will miss out the entire 20.2m but a big chunk of it is probably given.
The winner of the EL (which would be far from guaranteed btw with teams like Dortmund, Sevilla?, Atalanta/Villarreal, Leipzig, Atletico/Milan/Porto, Leicester, Napoli, West Ham) gets
14M. Reaching the round of 16 alone in the CL is worth
16M. It's just a huge difference, much bigger then the actual drop in quality of teams we'd be facing, especially since 7 of them drop out with us from the CL (level) anyway.
Plus even if we do make a deep run in the EL, the Thursday/Sunday schedule almost every week would really hurt us in the league in our quest for top 4. Putting every egg in the 'winning the EL to qualify to CL' basket would be a big gamble, teams only start thinking about winning it once they reach the semifinals, and we'd need to knock three teams out before even getting to that stage, that's 6 extra high pressure games, we have to remember that EL has the round of 32 too, that's one more round and two extra knockout games, although the first opponent would probably be easier, since we come down from the CL, we'd be playing one of the 2nd placed teams in the EL group stages, but that could still be the likes of Napoli, if they manage to get it and if we're really unlucky with the draw.
I'd honestly take us going out in the round of 16 in the CL, collecting that 16M, and finishing our European season in March, and then focus all of our attention to getting that top 4 in the league until the end of the season. I'd certainly take that over playing Thursday night football and our not very deep (at least not in quality) squad being conflicted about which competition to take more seriously and then most likely failing to reach qualifying for the CL in both competitions.