Ronald Koeman

Nazario1985

Senior Member
Nobody is saying RK is the problem ... but he is inexistant and have no clue how to enhance the team.

Why would you keep someone who can't bring results nor help share the futur ?

Wasn't that the culprit about EV that he can't reshape the team (which is true) and "people don't care about winning la ligua" ?

Well RK can't do both !

His best time as a manager was for the Dutch NT "not making them look as terrible as they were" before he joined ... maybe that's his thing he should be back at it.
 

Fati_Future_BallonDor

Well-known member
Nobody is saying RK is the problem ... but he is inexistant and have no clue how to enhance the team.

Why would you keep someone who can't bring results nor help share the futur ?

Wasn't that the culprit about EV that he can't reshape the team (which is true) and "people don't care about winning la ligua" ?

Well RK can't do both !

His best time as a manager was for the Dutch NT "not making them look as terrible as they were" before he joined ... maybe that's his thing he should be back at it.

Who should replace Koeman?
 

Bobo32

Senior Member
Master of evading admitting defeat...
Talking about yourself I assume...
You don't really counter my points or answer my questions, but bring up other stuff.
Ok, fine, I will still counter your post in an honest way it doesn't really deserve.
I think you should at least respond to the things that end with a question mark.
1) First of all why do you jump 10 years back?
Are we comparing now this team to Pep's team?
Hell no
To give some historical sense and show the trend. If you don't want that, here are the 5 year numbers:
Actual goal difference: 79, 70, 54, 48, 47
Actual # points taken: 90, 93, 87, 82, (82 with 2 more wins)
And if you don't want to see 5 years back, you can see for yourself that the last two seasons are roughly the same in both actual points and actual GD.
Last season had two managers sacked, and was (until this season) the worst season since Rijkaard.
2) xG data were not widely available 5 years back. The site I used lists xG data since 2017.
Enough to compare the EV teams and last season with what Koeman is doing now
Yes it was, but not on that site.
In any way, for your comparison to make sense, you should say something about the significance of the differences. It's not enough to say it's "massive"
3) Non-penalty xG for and against is the most reliable metric.
Pens are awarded not created. Hence, chance creation is tainted if you include pens.
You will see the same metric put forward by most data analysts out there
Ok, I'd think to get a penalty you need to have the ball in the box, it doesn't come from the sky.
It makes sense to exclude penalties from a players goal stats, but I fail to see why you'd do it for a team.
Your (excellent) site fbref doesn't include this stat on the team pages, neither in fixtures or in the tables what I see. I see the simple xG and xGA everywhere.
Could you point me towards where you find these non penalty xG for teams on the site?
4) If you do the chance conversion calculation (non-p G / non-p xG) for you see that:
20/21: 1.05 (74/70.4)
19/20: 1.26 (78/61.9)
18/19: 1.19 (80/67)
17/18: 1. 23 (93/ 75.2)
Okay, so we see that Barcelona traditionally overperform their xG.
Less so this year.
It's interesting, maybe this is a significant difference, while I don't think chance creation was.
Do you have an explanation for it, or do you see conversion as pure chance, whereas the xG is pure fact?
npG/npxG against:
20/21: 0.85 (29/33.8)
19/20: 1.01 (31/30.7)
18/19: 0.87 (34/39)
17/18: 0.68 (27/39.6)
If there was any massive improvement this year, it wasn't in hindering opponents chances.
Also, if anything it looks as if ter Stegen performed better than in the previous 2 years, or the opponent attackers underperformed.
So our attackers have the worst conversion rate of the last 4 seasons.
If their rate was 1.2, which would be more closer to the one of the previous 3 seasons, we would have scored 10 more goals by now.
You don't need to wonder why this League is not done and dusted in our favor.
If, if, if.
If these 10 goals you want to count on was given in a single game Barcelona already won, nothing would change but the statistics.
I don't know if you would feel your argument was stronger or weaker then?
And clearly the reason is not our record against RM and Atletico.
League is not won by the one who wins against top-3, but by the one who consistently wins against midtable and lowtable teams
It's that we didn't win games where we had the best chances, and we wasted them.
This is largely correct
Barcelona should be better than pretty much all the teams in la liga, and they should beat them in xPTS. Actual points will be less clear than xPTS, as the variance will be larger.
Barcelona played well enough to be champions this year.

Two points that you didn't respond to:
  • What's the significance of the change? You can pick either vs last year or vs any other time period, and choose whatever metric you like.
  • The expected goal difference based on these numbers would be: 36, 28, 31, 36 roughly. Significant? Satisfied with sample size?
 

Nazario1985

Senior Member
Who should replace Koeman?

That's the 1M$ answer as we should NOT do what we did for EV and bring the first guy available (which lets be honest its pretty much how barto landed RK his job after Setien).

No change for the sake of the change.

If we can sign the likes of Ten Hag if he is clearly convincing the board then we go with that.
 

Fati_Future_BallonDor

Well-known member
That's the 1M$ answer as we should NOT do what we did for EV and bring the first guy available (which lets be honest its pretty much how barto landed RK his job after Setien).

No change for the sake of the change.

If we can sign the likes of Ten Hag if he is clearly convincing the board then we go with that.

Ten Haag would be nice but very difficult, i think at the moment its really not easy to get a great coach. Maybe i would also go for Bielsa, leeds is playing great football.
 

Bobo32

Senior Member
I'm not disputing the XG side of things, more the last sentence about the improvement as people will have their different metrics to judge that and the nuances involved in their rationale as to why we have/haven't improved.

e.g. if you're a result first kind of supporter we have regressed ever so slightly, if you're a stats first kind of supporter we have improved. Playstyle and what people find attractive of course cannot be judged as one person's entertainment is another's misery.
Birdy, or anyone else, still have a lot to do to show that.
Your initial response was much better.
 

Richard.H

Senior Member
Tired of this blue balls feeling this season. Before supercopa final vs Bilbao we played great and were even leading only to lose. Before CL second leg we were playing great only to come out with a tie even though we were clearly superior. Before second match with RM we looked deadly on attack only to play like pussies and not attack until the last 15 mins. And then you have the League there for the taking only for us to lose to Granada (in the last 20 mins mind you) and to draw vs a piss poor Levante.


This has been the blue balls season for me.
 

Bobo32

Senior Member
Screenshot_6.jpgScreenshot_8.jpg

Here is a list of results vs top 4 teams in the league, big teams in CL, and all knockout games this season vs previous season.
 

fergus90

Senior Member
Birdy, or anyone else, still have a lot to do to show that.
Your initial response was much better.

I wasn't talking about my personal viewpoint with that by the way. The xG stats say what they say but if you don't set store by them much( which I don't) then it's little consolation for the position we find ourselves in now.
 

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