No I am obviously not satisfied with that
You bring up statistics a lot, maybe you can give a quick p-value for that change in xG and xGA?
Some quick points on the top of my head:
- Expected goals for and against doesn't tell the whole picture obviously
- Even so, the expected goal difference based on these numbers would be: 36, 28, 31, 36 roughly. Significant? Satisfied with sample size?
- I can add that the season prior to that (I asked for 5 seasons) Barcelona had a +79GD...
- Last year was a dip in performance enough to get two managers sacked.
- Why do you choose non-penalty goals as the metric here?
- Actual goal difference in the last 10 years are: 85, 75, 67, 89, 83, 79, 70, 54, 48, 47
- Actual points taken in the last 10 years are: 91, 100, 87, 94, 91, 90, 93, 87, 82, (82 with 2 more wins)
Master of evading admitting defeat...
1) First of all why do you jump 10 years back?
Are we comparing now this team to Pep's team?
Hell no
2) xG data were not widely available 5 years back. The site I used lists xG data since 2017.
Enough to compare the EV teams and last season with what Koeman is doing now
3) Non-penalty xG for and against is the most reliable metric.
Pens are awarded not created. Hence, chance creation is tainted if you include pens.
You will see the same metric put forward by most data analysts out there
4) If you do the chance conversion calculation (non-p G / non-p xG) for you see that:
20/21:
1.05 (74/70.4)
19/20: 1.26 (78/61.9)
18/19: 1.19 (80/67)
17/18: 1. 23 (93/ 75.2)
npG/npxG against:
20/21: 0.85 (29/33.8)
19/20: 1.01 (31/30.7)
18/19: 0.87 (34/39)
17/18:
0.68 (27/39.6)
So our attackers have the worst conversion rate of the last 4 seasons.
If their rate was 1.2, which would be more closer to the one of the previous 3 seasons, we would have scored 10 more goals by now.
You don't need to wonder why this League is not done and dusted in our favor.
And clearly the reason is not our record against RM and Atletico.
League is not won by the one who wins against top-3, but by the one who consistently wins against midtable and lowtable teams
It's that we didn't win games where we had the best chances, and we wasted them.