Ronald Koeman

Bobo32

Senior Member
It's a fact we have the best attack in Europe based on our xG performance.
Convertion was the problem on that end.
On the other end there are issues.

The question was not how good they are but if they are better this year or not.
I asked you the other day if you could provide xG performance over the last 5 years, will you respond to that this time?

You also cut from my post the hard facts:
At best, Barcelona get as many points as last year in the league
In Europe, they went out earlier and not against the winner this time, and they didn't win the group either.
They didn't need to face the Madrid teams to win the cup this year, they beat a lot of teams after extra time...
 

behindbrowneyes

Well-known member
Koeman will probably pay for the broken dishes. As Valverde or Seti?n did at the time. Because the coach is the weakest link in the chain. And because it is easier to fire a coach than twenty footballers. Koeman is not the culprit of Bar?a?s situation. The opposite. Koeman has been the solution for many months. Koeman resurrected a dying team and has led them to the gates of the double ... when all of Barcelonismo predicted a transition season without titles. Koeman has dealt with a triple sporting, economic and institutional crisis, exercising leadership and responsibility that was not expected of him. It is clear that Koeman is not the problem. The problem is not on the bench, but on the pitch. The problem is not the coach, but the players. Eight of the starters who were humiliated by Bayern in the Champions League nine months ago were also starters on Tuesday in this ridicule against Levante. And that is precisely the problem. And no other. The revolution that was to take place last summer was only a half step. And a project for the future cannot be built on rotten foundations. It is Bartomeu's poisoned inheritance, which Laporta must now manage as best he can.
https://www.sport.es/en/news/opinio...ack-the-coach-or-kick-out-20-players-11719362

Pretty much this.
 

FC B

Senior Member
Read quite a few rumours stating that Laporta will keep him at least for one more season which is :facepalm:
 
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Birdy

Senior Member
The question was not how good they are but if they are better this year or not.
I asked you the other day if you could provide xG performance over the last 5 years, will you respond to that this time?

You also cut from my post the hard facts:

FBREF, based on the model of StatsBomb, has xG data since 2017, and it tells us some hard facts you won't like:

Season is not over yet, but you can already see the difference
Total non-penalty xG for in LaLiga:
20/21: 70.4 in 36 games (1.96 per game)
19/20: 61.9 (1.63 per game)
18/19: 67 (1.76 per game)
17/18: 75.2 (1.98 per game)

Total non-penalty xG against in LaLiga:
20/21: 33.8 (in 36 games) (0.94 per game)
19/20: 30.7 (0.81 per game)
18/19: 39 (1.03 per game)
17/18: 39.6 (1.04 per game)


So, Koeman already improved our attacking output on xG by 10 (maybe more after the last 2 games) compared to what he received after last season, and restored our attacking output to where it was in EV's 1st year.
Then, the defensive output on xG against per game worsened a bit compared to last season, but is firmly better than the previous 2 seasons under EV.

Is this enough for you on hard facts to concede that Koeman has improved drastically the team?
 
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fergus90

Senior Member
FBREF, based on the model of StatsBomb, has xG data since 2017, and it tells us some hard facts you won't like:

Season is not over yet, but you can already see the difference
Total non-penalty xG for in LaLiga:
20/21: 70.4 in 36 games (1.96 per game)
19/20: 61.9 (1.63 per game)
18/19: 67 (1.76 per game)
17/18: 75.2 (1.98 per game)

Total non-penalty xG against in LaLiga:
20/21: 33.8 (in 36 games) (0.94 per game)
19/20: 30.7 (0.81 per game)
18/19: 39 (1.03 per game)
17/18: 39.6 (1.04 per game)


So, Koeman already improved our attacking output on xG by 10 (maybe more after the last 2 games) compared to what he received after last season, and restored our attacking output to where it was in EV's 1st year.
Then, the defensive output on xG against per game worsened a bit compared to last season, but is firmly better than the previous 2 seasons under EV.

Is this enough for you on hard facts to concede that Koeman has improved drastically the team?


That is subjective though isn't it. In your opinion, he has drastically improved the team because xG means almost as much to you as the actual result itself. So yes you could say he's drastically improved the team but at the same time you couldn't blame a supporter for being disgruntled at our worst finish since 07/08, our worst home form since 02/03, our worst record against Madrid/Atletico since 64/65 and the first time we've finished second in a CL group stage for the first team since 2006/07 as well as our earliest exit since then too.
 
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Birdy

Senior Member
[/B]

That is subjective though isn't it. In your opinion, he has drastically improved the team because xG means almost as much to you as the actual result itself. So yes you could say he's drastically improved the team but at the same time you couldn't blame a supporter for being disgruntled at our worst finish since 07/08, our worst home form since 02/03, our worst record against Madrid/Atletico since 64/65 and the first time we've finished second in a CL group stage for the first team since 2006/07 as well as our earliest exit since then too.

Subjective is to say 'I don't like way of playing'
On the contrary, xG is the most objective stat to measure how well a team attacks, and how well a team defends.
The actual G for and against, when deviating from xG is down to the players: either attackers over/underperforming or the GK over/underperforming.

I don't like our record against RM/Atleti either, but judging only based on that is myopic.
We create enough chances to win most games, we would have won the Leage already by now if some of our players were not so wasteful in front of the goal
 

fergus90

Senior Member
Subjective is to say 'I don't like way of playing'
On the contrary, xG is the most objective stat to measure how well a team attacks, and how well a team defends.
The actual G for and against, when deviating from xG is down to the players: either attackers over/underperforming or the GK over/underperforming.

I don't like our record against RM/Atleti either, but judging only based on that is myopic.
We create enough chances to win most games, we would have won the Leage already by now if some of our players were not so wasteful in front of the goal

I'm not disputing the XG side of things, more the last sentence about the improvement as people will have their different metrics to judge that and the nuances involved in their rationale as to why we have/haven't improved.

e.g. if you're a result first kind of supporter we have regressed ever so slightly, if you're a stats first kind of supporter we have improved. Playstyle and what people find attractive of course cannot be judged as one person's entertainment is another's misery.
 

Nazario1985

Senior Member
FBREF, based on the model of StatsBomb, has xG data since 2017, and it tells us some hard facts you won't like:

Season is not over yet, but you can already see the difference
Total non-penalty xG for in LaLiga:
20/21: 70.4 in 36 games (1.96 per game)
19/20: 61.9 (1.63 per game)
18/19: 67 (1.76 per game)
17/18: 75.2 (1.98 per game)

Total non-penalty xG against in LaLiga:
20/21: 33.8 (in 36 games) (0.94 per game)
19/20: 30.7 (0.81 per game)
18/19: 39 (1.03 per game)
17/18: 39.6 (1.04 per game)


So, Koeman already improved our attacking output on xG by 10 (maybe more after the last 2 games) compared to what he received after last season, and restored our attacking output to where it was in EV's 1st year.
Then, the defensive output on xG against per game worsened a bit compared to last season, but is firmly better than the previous 2 seasons under EV.

Is this enough for you on hard facts to concede that Koeman has improved drastically the team?

Just to say Averages per games are terribles.

Since he is here less than a season you can easily go a see every important match, here is a teaser.

Koeman.jpg


Failed EVERY & EACH important moment in the season which is a first low not even Setien has reached.

Now if you have watched our gameplay you could easily see that Koeman is great at "player" management but horrible as tactician, "lets throw 5 players up front the last 5 minutes with hope to score a goal" hilariously bad.
 

Bobo32

Senior Member
FBREF, based on the model of StatsBomb, has xG data since 2017, and it tells us some hard facts you won't like:

Season is not over yet, but you can already see the difference
Total non-penalty xG for in LaLiga:
20/21: 70.4 in 36 games (1.96 per game)
19/20: 61.9 (1.63 per game)
18/19: 67 (1.76 per game)
17/18: 75.2 (1.98 per game)

Total non-penalty xG against in LaLiga:
20/21: 33.8 (in 36 games) (0.94 per game)
19/20: 30.7 (0.81 per game)
18/19: 39 (1.03 per game)
17/18: 39.6 (1.04 per game)


So, Koeman already improved our attacking output on xG by 10 (maybe more after the last 2 games) compared to what he received after last season, and restored our attacking output to where it was in EV's 1st year.
Then, the defensive output on xG against per game worsened a bit compared to last season, but is firmly better than the previous 2 seasons under EV.

Is this enough for you on hard facts to concede that Koeman has improved drastically the team?
No I am obviously not satisfied with that :)
You bring up statistics a lot, maybe you can give a quick p-value for that change in xG and xGA?

Some quick points on the top of my head:
  • Expected goals for and against doesn't tell the whole picture obviously
  • Even so, the expected goal difference based on these numbers would be: 36, 28, 31, 36 roughly. Significant? Satisfied with sample size?
  • I can add that the season prior to that (I asked for 5 seasons) Barcelona had a +79GD...
  • Last year was a dip in performance enough to get two managers sacked.
  • Why do you choose non-penalty goals as the metric here?
  • Actual goal difference in the last 10 years are: 85, 75, 67, 89, 83, 79, 70, 54, 48, 47
  • Actual points taken in the last 10 years are: 91, 100, 87, 94, 91, 90, 93, 87, 82, (82 with 2 more wins)
 

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