veryfatchocobo
New member
So, I guess Dani Alves will get an early red? <_< Also, based on the 2nd Clasico, I don't think Pep'll play our best 11.
I'm concerned of a couple things from RM's gameplan. The first is the counter obviously. Mourinho has perfected their main way of scoring by forcing his players to attack at the correct positions at the right time. The second is Oezil (and not CR9). Once the ball goes to him, he can pinpoint anybody in a scoring position. The midfield must prevent Xabi Alonso from giving the ball to Oezil in critical positions of the field. Alternatively, Busquets or Mascherano has to force Oezil out of his central position. This will force CR9 to the center, and this is all Pique from here.
We can play Mascherano over Busquets since there's no aerial threat from RM. Mascherano is better with the ground game IMO. However, Busquets has successfully marked Oezil, so I'm thinking he'll start. Also, I'm actually willing to think he'll play Busquets-Mascherano, or play Keita with Busquets (Keita-Busquets won't be a double pivot). I'm fairly sure he'll play Iniesta on the wing, too, dropping either Villa or Pedro. Based on form, the attacking trident will probably be Pedro-Messi-Iniesta
One thing that worked in the 2nd Clasico last year is Pep's formation and tactics vs. Pellegrini's lopsided formation. Zonal Marking explains how we won that game (that guy is amazing). Those tactics definitely will not work this time as Mourinho will use a more balanced formation. However, Mourinho will probably instruct Khedira to mark a forward running Dani Alves. If Mourinho is stupid, this will give Xavi his space to distribute. However, when they attack, he's going to exploit Dani Alves's and Abidal's advanced positions, just as he did in the Semis of the CL with Inter.
There's been a simple strategy that has completely shut us down these past games. Although Pep has sometimes out-played this strategy down (like yesterday), it still works to great effect. That is the shutting of passing zones on top of the center of the 18 yard box. Copenhagen gave us trouble because of this. Same with Inter. RM's players are perfectly capable of doing this, too, especially since the only two people that won't defend behind Xavi will be CR9 and Higuain, who will prevent the ball from going to Pique and Puyol. When there's pressure on our CBs, that ball will not go to Xavi as much. One thing to do is make Xavi and Messi make runs to give Iniesta space. I don't think he'll be marked as heavily as those two, as it is hard to mark more than 2 people on the pitch. However, that is a negative tactic, and I think Pep has a couple trump cards in his hand to make sure they will be used effectively like the 2nd Clasico.
What RM has to be worried about is how they react when they get the ball. Obviously, Barcelona will have 65-80% of the ball. They can't score if they don't have the ball. However, they've been perfectly capable of winning with 3+ goals without dominating possession. But from what I've seen, once they lose Oezil, they lose the majority of their attacking threat. That doesn't mean that Xabi Alonso's effectiveness will die though. He still has CR9 to give the ball to, and CR9 is always RM's main scoring threat.
Given Villa's ineffectiveness when teams park the bus in front of the box since this is what Mourinho will make RM do, I'm willing to think that this will be Pep's paper formation:
---------Valdes-------------
A--Pique--Puyol--Abidal
L--------Busquets-----------
V-----Xavi------Keita-------
E--Iniesta---Messi-----------
S---------------------Pedro-
On attack, Busquets will drop to the back to give the midfield more roaming space. Keita will be the late running midfielder. Xavi and Messi will be the orchestrators. Iniesta will be the free roamer. Alves will play wing when Iniesta moves around. Pedro will be the main forward runner. Messi will be the man to make the scoring runs. I still think if the park is successful, we should drop a player back to give more space on the pitch (like how the CL Semi game against Chelsea). We can't outnumber a team in attack if they defend with 10 players. The effectiveness of RM's attack will depend on Keita, since I'd think he'd know where to drop back when they get the ball.
Watch how this will expose my stupidity and how wrong my pre-analysis for this game is. <_<
