Ernesto Valverde - V1

[JamDav1982]

Yes it is a flawed stat. Said that from the start.

Ter Stegen is playing better this season and that plays a part. He is also facing less shots and less in box.

What turnaround?

You are the one that takes a set of stats to prove something then they mean nothing when you have got them wrong and proved the opposite.

It is a fact that Ter Stegen is making less saves and less from inside area which was the determing factor for you yesterday before you got it wrong and went searching for other stats.

Who was best defence in world last season? Did Pep have the best defence in the world at Bayern?

Has Oblak been better than TS this season?

 

[LeeRomeno]

And I'm not looking for other stats... I was responding to [MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION] who stated that Valverde has turned this team into a defensive behemoth when in my opinion he really has not. I stick with my opinion that the low goals conceded stat is due to ter Stegen operating at a significantly higher level and that what we've gained in some areas we've lost in others in terms of the defense as a whole.

So you saying ter Stegen is only reason is not a tunneled view lol. Ter Stegen is doing better, not saying he is not. 16,84% of shots on target against us have gone in this season, compared to 23,27% last season. Progress is pretty obvious.
Then again as I have stated before, only 4,88% of shots have gone in, compared to 10,55% last season. So literally, opposition had to shoot 100 times to get 10 goals against us, while this season they have had 200 shots to score same amount.
The total amount of shots against us is similar, 9.2 per game last season, 10.5 per game this season. So for me, this tells me that shots have been just of much worse quality. As opposition in general is the same (La Liga), main factor in making a shot be of worse quality is the shooting position and that is down to defensive setup.
So far you have not made me question my theory one bit.
As for xGA, for any statistical analyses, it is hard to take it seriously as it has still many flaws, you can read a bit more about it here: https://deadspin.com/why-soccers-most-popular-advanced-stat-kind-of-sucks-1685563075

 

[Stoichkov1]

I am pretty sure that I had this discussion before. Problem with CL stats is that they are made from much smaller base which also not similar for the squads. Playing team like Malmo and scoring 8 goals will make your team average fine even if you fail to do anything in next 2. While in league a few really bad performances by weak teams don't influence the final results that much.
Also my theory is that the number of shots against on target and goals conceded are far more important than just shots against.
All stats become more meaningful if there is larger amount of data they are based on. CL is still a cup tournament with its flaw and virtues in essence, with quite different level of opponents for teams in both groups as well as playoffs.

Cl and the league are different competitions.

For example Juve conceded 1 or 2 goals in the league in 2018 and conceded 3 against Barca, 3 in 2 matches against Tottenham and 3 against Real.

The fact that we don't perform well in CL is not about the small sample size, and Real had Tottenham in the group stage, not only minnows.

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

Cl and the league are different competitions.

For example Juve conceded 1 or 2 goals in the league in 2018 and conceded 3 against Barca, 3 in 2 matches against Tottenham and 3 against Real.

It's because Juve defense is absurdly disorganized. Not because teams suddenly turn into something else in CL. Juve defense this season is even worse than City. And them leading the serie A only tells how shit Serie A is. Every team including chelsea notched up their performance in CL but Juve didn't because they couldn't.
We didn't perform well in the last two seasons because we consider CL as just another liga game. We prepare for the game as we prepare for a Sevilla away game in league. And we were genuinely poor in the last two seasons. Remember that we almost bottled the 11 point lead in League.

 

[Stoichkov1]

It's because Juve defense is absurdly disorganized. Not because teams suddenly turn into something else in CL. Juve defense this season is even worse than City. And them leading the serie A only tells how shit Serie A is. Every team including chelsea notched up their performance in CL but Juve didn't because they couldn't.
We didn't perform well in the last two seasons because we consider CL as just another liga game. We prepare for the game as we prepare for a Sevilla away game in league. And we were genuinely poor in the last two seasons. Remember that we almost bottled the 11 point lead in League.

Juve's defence is probably the best in the world with Atletico's, but as I said CL is a different competition and they face better teams.

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

Juve's defence is probably the best in the world with Atletico's.

Juve's defense is the worst of this tournament. I'm talking about 2018 and not 2015. 1. Atletico and 2. Barcelona are the best defensive teams in the world.

Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
ManU; 13.44; 5; 1.97; 11.81; 4; 0.78
Atletico: 10.84; 4.32; 1.65; 11.71; 3.39; 0.48

These three teams have the best goalkeepers in the world.

If we consider three of them equal in terms of saving the shots, the shots on target against Atletico are of the least quality. Against Barcelona second least quality, United most quality.

Hence we conclude, 1. Atletico and 2. Barcelona are the best defensive team in Europe.

 

[LeeRomeno]

Juve's defence is probably the best in the world with Atletico's, but as I said CL is a different competition and they face better teams.

We have conceded less goals per game than Juve, doing it in more difficult league, so I would definitely disagree with that statement.

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

We have conceded less goals per game than Juve, doing it in more difficult league, so I would definitely disagree with that statement.

Not only of stats, but one can clearly see from the first 2 goals they conceded against RM. It was like the defense in Pele goals If they are to ever compete for CL they should change their entire squad except Dybala.

 

[MessiCam]

They may create fewer chances but the ones they create will hardly be stopped. Defending with high line and keeping the ball is usually more dangerous, no stats are going to change that.

Just looked at last season's stats. xGA us and Atleti are even. What was the difference, in your opinion? Was Oblak that better than MAtS?

An interesting trend, teams who spend more time defending behind the ball, like Atletico, Juve, us, etc. are expected (xGA) to concede far more than they do. What's the catch?

I can only tell that the stats (xG) don't describe reality well enough. An example to ilustrate this:

Atletico Madrid last 3 seasons, xGA, GA, difference.
2017./18. 29.73, 15, +14,73
2016./17. 31,34, 27, +4,34
2015./16. 27,8, 18, +9,80

And teams like Napoli, xGA, GA, difference.
2017./18. 18,66, 21, -2,34
2016./17. 32,16, 39, -6,84
2015./16. 26,69, 32, -5,31

Why are teams who play higher up the pitch expected to concede less than they do while teams which sit back concede way less than this stats show?
Is it really trustworthy?

I think this is a fairly straight forward answer. The opposition cannot create danger if they're further away from goal and don't have the ball. They concede less corners and set pieces in dangerous areas etc etc.

Well drilled teams like Atleti will have higher xGA's because due to the nature of their game they give away more penaties and set pieces in potentially dangerous zones but in terms of open play their xGA's are usually lower. As an example Barça have conceded 30 set pieces as opposed to Atleti's 60 that has resulted in defensive action or an attempt on goal. Does that explain the high xGA's suffciently? The xG's are quite accurate when compared to the scorelines... Barça vs Atleti was .64 vs .25 while Barça vs Roma was 1.82 vs 1.87 which save for the own goals is what the scoreline could have reasonably expected to have been.

And yes, a higher line results in a riskier defense but it also results in more attacking play.

So you blame me for having tunnel vision based on stats yet you yourself keep on bringing up stats, but that is not tunneled view? What matters does it ignore?

I'm saying don't look at it in such linear terms... More blocks and more bodies doesn't automatically mean better defense. Looking at it your way completely ignores the fact that more shots both in and out the box are being conceded.

xGA is very much based on shots still, if more shots are shot at us, this will quite obviously come out as more goals excepted to concede. That data is not perfect, it is an estimation based on different kinds of datasets. We should have conceded 10 more goals according to that data this season, while at the same time we have actually conceded less and ter Stegen has made less saves.

No argument from me here.

So either explanation is that our opponents for some unknown reason just completely lose their cool while shooting at us or then they are just not in that good positions to score.

Or ter Stegen has saved a fair few of the dangerous chances or a combination of all...

We have played game of 2 halves for most of season. We either suck first half and then decide in second or other way round. Play comfortably first half and then let opposition have the ball and sit tight. Obviously this type of game in statistical point of view will generate more "theoretical" chances.

And you don't think that the above is a problem?

My solution would have been not integrating at all in mid-season and see what comes out next season. Suarez will have to face bench more anyways, he is getting older and probably should take CR7 approach in sitting out more and being sharp due to playing less.

So leave it for another year when at the time there was no guarantee of any trophies?

 

[JamDav1982]

Move from one stat to the next trying to find one that fits.

The simplest stat is the most effective ones. Goals against and chances on target and Barca obviously better than last season.

xGA is flawed and too look as an average gives too much credit to possession based teams in general.

Not anything to guage the strongest defences out there on.

Did Barca have the best defence in the top three leagues last season?

Did Pep have the best defence in the world at Bayern?

Have Arsenal been one of top defences in EPL prior to this season?

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

I'm saying don't look at it in such linear terms... More blocks and more bodies doesn't automatically mean better defense. Looking at it your way completely ignores the fact that more shots both in and out the box are being conceded.





No argument from me here.



Or ter Stegen has saved a fair few of the dangerous chances or a combination of all...



And you don't think that the above is a problem?



So leave it for another year when at the time there was no guarantee of any trophies?

Let me end this discussion in simple terms. Watch the matches of the best defensive teams such as Barca and Atletico and count how many clear cut chances they concede. Barca would concede the lowest amount of clear chances. Barca and Atletico are the teams that depends least on the luck when defending. Of course, there are exceptions such as Chelsea first leg and Sevilla.

 

[MessiCam]

Move from one stat to the next trying to find one that fits.

The simplest stat is the most effective ones. Goals against and chances on target and Barca obviously better than last season.

xGA is flawed and too look as an average gives too much credit to possession based teams in general.

Not anything to guage the strongest defences out there on.

Did Barca have the best defence in the top three leagues last season?

Did Pep have the best defence in the world at Bayern?

Have Arsenal been one of top defences in EPL prior to this season?

Can't argue with this level of ignorance.

 

[JamDav1982]

Let me end this discussion in simple terms. Watch the matches of the best defensive teams such as Barca and Atletico and count how many clear cut chances they concede. Barca would concede the lowest amount of clear chances. Barca would concede the lowest amount of Clear cut chances. Barca and Atletico are the teams that depends least on the luck when defending. Of course, there are exceptions such as Chelsea first leg and Sevilla.

He thinks xGA tells you which team concede the most clear cut chances.

Can't argue with this level of ignorance.

None of it is ignorance.

Ignorance is using a stat to prove yourself correct, then realising that stat proves the opposite and then going on to chase any other stat that fits.

You cant answer any questions on what xGA actually shows and just go looking for next stat that fits.

The fact you think that Pep style football this year at City and with Bayern provides the strongest defence due to xGA is about as ignorant as it gets.

xGA says Peps Bayern had best defence going.

xGA says Barca last season had best defence in top three leagues.

xGA says that Arsenal have had one of best two defences in EPL in two of three previous seasons to this.

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

See how many spectacular saves, last second tackles, blocks closest to goal and clearances from the penalty box. Even Atletico would have more in count than Barca. Barca's game against Atletico is the best defensive performance of the team this season.

 

[MessiCam]

So you saying ter Stegen is only reason is not a tunneled view lol. Ter Stegen is doing better, not saying he is not. 16,84% of shots on target against us have gone in this season, compared to 23,27% last season. Progress is pretty obvious.

I'm with you...

Then again as I have stated before, only 4,88% of shots have gone in, compared to 10,55% last season. So literally, opposition had to shoot 100 times to get 10 goals against us, while this season they have had 200 shots to score same amount.
The total amount of shots against us is similar, 9.2 per game last season, 10.5 per game this season. So for me, this tells me that shots have been just of much worse quality. As opposition in general is the same (La Liga), main factor in making a shot be of worse quality is the shooting position and that is down to defensive setup.
So far you have not made me question my theory one bit.
As for xGA, for any statistical analyses, it is hard to take it seriously as it has still many flaws, you can read a bit more about it here: https://deadspin.com/why-soccers-most-popular-advanced-stat-kind-of-sucks-1685563075

Lets break it down then instead of lumping everything under one umbrella. (2017/18 vs 2016/17)
Missed shots conceded per game 4.65 vs 3.5 (variance +1.15)
Total shots conceded from outside the box per game 4.29 vs 3.68 (variance +0.61)
Total shots on target conceded from outside the box per game 1 vs 1.55 (variance -0.55)
Total shots conceded from inside the box per game 6.32 vs 5.66 (variance +0.66)
Total shots on target conceded from inside the box per game 2.03 vs 2.5 (variance -0.47)
Conceded shots blocked per game 2.68 vs 1.87 (variance +0.81)

These hard facts are mostly within what you consider similar territory 9.2 vs 10.5 (Variance of +1.3), so how can you claim it's better this year when you've specifically stated that it's similar. I'm being deliberately obtuse here because this is what you've set out as your criteria.

Now lets look at the goalkeeping performance 2017/18 vs 2016/17

Saves per game from inside the box 1.58 vs 1.71 (variance -0.13)
Saves per game from outside the box 0.94 vs 1.47 (variance -0.53)

So saves per game according to your criteria is once again similar, in the case of saves from inside the box it is remarkably similar...

Saves as a percentage of shots on target from inside the box 77.77% vs 68.42%
Saves as a percentage of shots on target from outside the box 93.55% vs 94.92%
Saves as a percentage of total shots on target 82.98% vs 78.71%

So armed with the knowledge of these hard facts (because the probability of the xG is flawed) and using simple extrapolation based on ter Stegen's relative performances ceteris paribus then Barcelona will have conceded 20 goals from the on target shots faced after the 31 match days vs 16 currently or conversely Barcelona would have conceded 20 goals after 31 match days last season as opposed to 28.