Ernesto Valverde - V1

[Joan]

It also verifies my inference from watching the matches of both Barca and Argentina that Messi is more clinical than ever.

Messi in 2018:
1742 minutes played
20 goals
9 assists
46 chances created
81 shot
856 passes completed
56 balls won

 

[serghei]

BBZ data is usualyl some random % of his gut feeling, those are official stats lol.

[MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION], you let this guy talk to you like that?

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

Messi in 2018:
1742 minutes played
20 goals
9 assists
46 chances created
81 shot
856 passes completed
56 balls won

81 shots on target?

 

[Cule4life]

BBZ data is usualyl some random % of his gut feeling

 

[Cruyff-Total Football]

Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
ManU; 13.44; 5; 1.97; 11.81; 4; 0.78
Atletico: 10.84; 4.32; 1.65; 11.71; 3.39; 0.48

These three teams have the best goalkeepers in the world.

If we consider three of them equal in terms of saving the shots, the shots on target against Atletico are of the least quality. Against Barcelona second least quality, United most quality.

Hence we conclude, 1. Atletico and 2. Barcelona are the best defensive team in Europe.

 

[BBZ8800]

Man City’s game is far from one dimensional. They play in the spaces, play through the middle, play on the wings and half spaces, Silva and KdB have complete freedom depending on how the opposition are setting up. The thing is when teams play that kind of football at that level there is little else to do but setup a low block. A medium block would be torn to shreds too.

Further to the point. If Pep’s teams are one dimensional I wonder what this Barça team is...

My view is:
Real can score goals with classic football shortpassing actions, but also headers after wing crosses, corners, set pieces, counters, longshots.

City have a team of midgets and they can only score with feet.
They don't have wings actions in terms of crosses.
They don't shoot too much from outside of a box, like all Pep's teams.
They can't score after corners either due to midgets.

So, yeah, City sucks against big boys who know how to neutralize their shortpassing game with two parked buses.
And what is Pep's solution in terms of tactics?
= play the same in terms of tactics, and buy even better players, lol.

Barca vs City?
Well, we are also one dimensional, but at least we have a good defense this time.
Plus, there is some tiny chance that Suarez will score a header from time to time, unlike City's attack, who is probably physically the weakest attacking line in the history of football.

[MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION], you let this guy talk to you like that?

Majority of my numbers REALLY are only my estimations in order to explain my ideas or theories better.

Like physique of players 3/10.
Ev's attack 90/100 and defense 100/100 etc

So, Lee Romeno really didn't say anything wrong or offended me.

Nice stats by him btw.

 

[gasgas]

My view is:
Real can score goals with classic football shortpassing actions, but also headers after wing crosses, corners, set pieces, counters, longshots.

City have a team of midgets and they can only score with feet.
They don't have wings actions in terms of crosses.
They don't shoot too much from outside of a box, like all Pep's teams.
They can't score after corners either due to midgets.

So, yeah, City sucks against big boys who know how to neutralize their shortpassing game with two parked buses.
And what is Pep's solution in terms of tactics?
= play the same in terms of tactics, and buy even better players, lol.

Barca vs City?
Well, we are also one dimensional, but at least we have a good defense this time.
Plus, there is some tiny chance that Suarez will score a header from time to time, unlike City's attack, who is probably physically the weakest attacking line in the history of football.

Have you watched City goals this season at all?

They have a good number of goals from low crosses, and headers from set pieces

 

[Stoichkov1]

Hey! yea as of today per game:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
Real: 18.71; 7.55; 2.48; 10.13; 3.9; 1.10
Atletico: 10.84; 4.32; 1.65; 11.71; 3.39; 0.48

We are by far the most clinical of the bunch, 47.71% of all our shots are on target, second best here is Valencia with 40,7 and Real with 40,4. This also means that 16.46% of our shots ends up being goal. This is best in La Liga again. We are not among the best when it comes to goals from shots on target, which tells me that our overall shots are just of better quality, but the ones we hit on target, get saved as often as other teams.
If we look at shots against, then Eibar leads the bunch with only 8.35 shots per game received. What is astonishing is the % of shots on target against team. By far 2 best teams in La Liga here are Atletico Madrid with only 4.13% of shots against being on target and us with 4.88. My logic tells me, those 2 teams manage to avoid opposition getting into good shooting position best. Next in line are Valencia and Villareal with over 7% already.
If we look at goals received from shots on target (shows goalkeeping level), Atletico and Barcelona excel here again with Atletico conceding 14.29% of shots on target and us 16.80%, then big gap until Valencia 23%. Real here at 28%.

Some other top teams to compare here:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
City; 17.56; 7.03; 2.81; 6.34; 2.28; 0.75
Liverpool; 16.94; 6.21; 2.27; 7.39; 2.73; 1.06
Bayern; 17.55; 6.69; 2.62; 8.62; 2.83; 0.72
Juventus; 14.84; 5.58; 2.39; 7.94; 2.32; 0.58

Looking at data here, City has 40.04% of shots on target, falling way behind us here. City similar to us with goals from shots with 16%. This for me tells they have scored more from long range position, but on average, us and City score on similar rate, but as they shoot more, they have a bit more goals as well. When we look at shots against being on target, noone in premier gets close to us and Atletico as well, with Burnley showing best stats at 5.81%. City here is one of the worst with 11.8% of all shots received being on target. Best goalkeeper in Premier according to this data is De Gea with 19% of shots on target going in. Also a bit worse than us and Oblak. Liverpool is worst btw in this category with 39% of shots going in.
So yes, City is a bit more dangerous attack-wise, but is weaker in defense and considerably weaker in goalkeeping.
Bayern has 38% of shots on target, not even best in Bundesliga, best in goals from shots though with 14.93, still below our level. Bayern is not surprisingly best in defense for Bundesliga with only 8.4% of shots against being on target. Again far behind us and Atletico. Their goalkeeping not on par with us and Atletico aswell.
Last but not least Juve, they have pretty impressive 16.09% of all shots going in, but they dont get to shoot as much as us. Nothing spectacular in defense with 30% of shots against being on target (Inter best here) and 7.32% of all shots going in.

For all the Mourinho admirers here:
Name, Shots, Shots on target, Goals, Shots against, Shots against on target, Goals against:
Barcelona; 15.48; 7.39; 2.55; 10.58; 3.06; 0.52
ManU; 13.44; 5; 1.97; 11.81; 4; 0.78

Only category ManU is looking great is goalkeeping really.

So as conclusion, we are still very much one of the best attacking sides in Europe. Yes, indeed we do not shoot as much as many others, but when we do, we do it at really dangerous positions and score alot. From top 4 leagues and City and Bayern have scored more per game and difference is not that much. IN addition, Valverde has really turned us into a defensive behemoth. Not that opposition does not shoot, but they almost never manage to shoot from good positions. Only team in Europe on par with us is Atletico Madrid, rest are behind. And Atletico is way unbalanced towards defense as show by their goal stats, to be a real contender.

And last bit of data: % of opposition shots that we concede/% of our shots turning into goals
17/18: 4.88 (second best) / 16.46 (best)
16/17: 10.54 (only 5th best in La Liga) 17.90 (best)
15/16: 7.95 (4th best) / 18.54 (best)
14/15: 6.89 (best in La Liga - treble season) / 17.57 (best)
13/14: 9.85 (6th best) / 15.55 (best)
12/13: 11.93 (16th best) / 21.60 (best)
11/12: 10.51 (11th best) / 18.30 (best)
10/11: 7.47 (best in La Liga) / 16.07 (best)
09/10: 7.38 (best in La Liga) / 16.50 (best)
08/09: 13.21 (19th best) / 14.85 (best)

For last 10 years, we have been best in La Liga every year in converting our shots, including this season. Defensively, we have never been as good as now though, not even close, only seasons that resemble current are Peps 09-11 and Luchos treble.

I don't want to spoil the party but if you look at Cl stats we're among the worst, both in shots against, goals, shots on target.

 

[BBZ8800]

I don't want to spoil the party but if you look at Cl stats we're among the worst, both in shots against, goals, shots on target.

We'll win it though, unlike fancy attacking teams.

Have you watched City goals this season at all?

They have a good number of goals from low crosses, and headers from set pieces

Low crosses won't work that well against big teams with excellent buses.
Still no headers from Pep's tams, right?

 

[Horatio]

We'll win it though, unlike fancy attacking teams.

8 word post? Have you turned ill? Stay strong.

 

[RMU ReBorn]

My view is:
Real can score goals with classic football shortpassing actions, but also headers after wing crosses, corners, set pieces, counters, longshots.

City have a team of midgets and they can only score with feet.
They don't have wings actions in terms of crosses.
They don't shoot too much from outside of a box, like all Pep's teams.
They can't score after corners either due to midgets.

So, yeah, City sucks against big boys who know how to neutralize their shortpassing game with two parked buses.
And what is Pep's solution in terms of tactics?
= play the same in terms of tactics, and buy even better players, lol.

Barca vs City?
Well, we are also one dimensional, but at least we have a good defense this time.
Plus, there is some tiny chance that Suarez will score a header from time to time, unlike City's attack, who is probably physically the weakest attacking line in the history of football.

This is bullshit . Kompany is one of the best headers of the ball . Ottamendi too can score from headers and set pieces

 

[gasgas]

We'll win it though, unlike fancy attacking teams.



Low crosses won't work that well against big teams with excellent buses.
Still no headers from Pep's tams, right?

Headers from set pieces plenty of them by Otamendi and John Stones, Aguerro etc

 

[LeeRomeno]

I don't want to spoil the party but if you look at Cl stats we're among the worst, both in shots against, goals, shots on target.

I am pretty sure that I had this discussion before. Problem with CL stats is that they are made from much smaller base which also not similar for the squads. Playing team like Malmo and scoring 8 goals will make your team average fine even if you fail to do anything in next 2. While in league a few really bad performances by weak teams don't influence the final results that much.
Also my theory is that the number of shots against on target and goals conceded are far more important than just shots against.
All stats become more meaningful if there is larger amount of data they are based on. CL is still a cup tournament with its flaw and virtues in essence, with quite different level of opponents for teams in both groups as well as playoffs.

Lol was not really trying to insult him. On most of cases I agree with his views, but his numbers are there to illustrate his points rather than being factual, hence them being random in statistical terms.

 

[MessiCam]

Headers from set pieces plenty of them by Otamendi and John Stones, Aguerro etc

It's not just them. Jesus is also good with his head...

But it's useless arguing with [MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION] about Guardiola's teams. He has already stated he hates what Guardiola turned Barcelona into.

Of the big teams only Bayern, Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal score more headers than City. Bayern are ridiculously proficient at it though.
[MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION], Barcelona are not this defensive behemoth as has been made out. Lets have a look shall we...

2017/18 - 2016/17

Total shots conceded per game: 10.61 - 9.34
Total shots conceded outside the box per game: 4.29 - 3.68
Total shots conceded inside the box per game: 6.32 - 5.66
Missed shots conceded per game: 4.65 - 3.50
Blocked sots conceded per game: 2.68 - 1.53
Total saves per game: 2.23 - 2.83 discounting easy pick ups and 2.52 - 3.21 including easy pickups
Shots on target conceded from inside the box per game: 2.03 - 2.5
Shots on target conceded from outside the box per game: 1.00 - 1.60
Saves per goal: 4.31 - 3.29
xGA after 31 games: 26.40 - 23.85
Goals conceded after 31 games: 16 - 31

So in conclusion we're conceding more shots, having to make more blocks, the opposition are missing more, conceding higher quality chances and MAtS making a higher amount of quality saves. On paper it looks like a better defence but in reality it's indicative of a team with less control than before. So no, I don't consider the defence to be better in general.

 

[LeeRomeno]

It's not just them. Jesus is also good with his head...

But it's useless arguing with [MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION] about Guardiola's teams. He has already stated he hates what Guardiola turned Barcelona into.

Of the big teams only Bayern, Madrid, Chelsea and Arsenal score more headers than City. Bayern are ridiculously proficient at it though.
[MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION], Barcelona are not this defensive behemoth as has been made out. Lets have a look shall we...

2017/18 - 2016/17

Total shots conceded per game: 10.61 - 9.34
Total shots conceded outside the box per game: 4.29 - 3.68
Total shots conceded inside the box per game: 6.32 - 5.66
Missed shots conceded per game: 4.65 - 3.50
Blocked sots conceded per game: 2.68 - 1.53
Total saves per game: 2.23 - 2.83 discounting easy pick ups and 2.52 - 3.21 including easy pickups
Shots on target conceded from inside the box per game: 2.03 - 2.5
Shots on target conceded from outside the box per game: 1.00 - 1.60
Saves per goal: 4.31 - 3.29
xGA after 31 games: 26.40 - 23.85
Goals conceded after 31 games: 16 - 31

So in conclusion we're conceding more shots, having to make more blocks, the opposition are missing more, conceding higher quality chances and MAtS making a higher amount of quality saves. On paper it looks like a better defence but in reality it's indicative of a team with less control than before. So no, I don't consider the defence to be better in general.

If you block more shots, this means you have more people in the box and it is more difficult to hit the target, simple as that. We have been much more compact in defense this season and more happy sitting around our area. Main reason to do it is not to allow our opposition to break away from our rather slow and not agile midfield and threaten our defense. Notice though, that this happens not all the time, but after we have the lead.
Biggest difference Valverde has with its predecessors is that his team is rather content in getting couple of goals lead and then just sitting it out and conserving energy. This comes down to him rotating alot less compared to Lucho, meaning smaller squad that need to play more minutes, so they need to compensate it somewhere. This also brings the fact opposition will have chances to shoot, but shoot from positions where shots are blocked or then they miss the target. You posted yourself: we have far less saves per game and we also have conceded less goals per game, but opposition has had more shots at us. This does not mean we dont control the game, this means we minimize the risks and force opposition to shoot at bad positions. If this is not being defensive stronghold then I do not know what is. Atletico has exactly similar stats, they are now not considered a strong defensive side anymore? Who is then?