Ernesto Valverde - V1

[JamDav1982]

MessiCam produced stats to show that defence was better last year.

Then realised he had it the wrong way round those same stats showed the defence better this year.

Now those stats he tried to show the defence was better last year have been discarded and searches for new stats.

Says it all.

Barca are conceding less goals, less attempts on target..... the defence is better.

The defence being in place to block a shot is a positive not a negative ffs. If a team has 10 shots in the box and they are pressured and defence in place to block them that is better than 5 shots in the box where the defence is all over the shop.

Teams like Burnley and Atletico have built defences that way. They dont care so much about how many chances you get but how many easy/uncontested ones.

The polar opposite has been Liverpool and Peps teams at top level. They wont give up as many but they can give up 3/4 much easier ones and get destroyed.

 

[Joan]

As I see it, MessiCam doesn't consider defending without the ball positive.

Think we are discussing different things.

It's clear we are more comfortable defending behind the ball.

 

[MessiCam]

If you block more shots, this means you have more people in the box and it is more difficult to hit the target, simple as that. We have been much more compact in defense this season and more happy sitting around our area. Main reason to do it is not to allow our opposition to break away from our rather slow and not agile midfield and threaten our defense. Notice though, that this happens not all the time, but after we have the lead.
Biggest difference Valverde has with its predecessors is that his team is rather content in getting couple of goals lead and then just sitting it out and conserving energy. This comes down to him rotating alot less compared to Lucho, meaning smaller squad that need to play more minutes, so they need to compensate it somewhere. This also brings the fact opposition will have chances to shoot, but shoot from positions where shots are blocked or then they miss the target. You posted yourself: we have far less saves per game and we also have conceded less goals per game, but opposition has had more shots at us. This does not mean we dont control the game, this means we minimize the risks and force opposition to shoot at bad positions. If this is not being defensive stronghold then I do not know what is. Atletico has exactly similar stats, they are now not considered a strong defensive side anymore? Who is then?

That's one way to look at it but it's not as simple as that. How shall I put this? That's a tunneled view...

It's all good and well having more bodies, being more compact and blocking more shots if you're giving up the same amount or less chances per game as before but that's not the case. We're conceding more shots and more quality chances all round while having to make more blocks and/or pressuring the opposition into misses (could also be that the opposition just finish poorly or a combination of both but for the sake of consistency I will assume the misses are solely due to defensive presence). That doesn't strike me as a better defense in general but rather a better last ditch effort defense... It's indicative of something being broken further up.

Despite what some may think here, I don't believe Valverde goes into games with the intention of scoring and then sitting back. During his best periods between August/September and December/January (mid January) that certainly wasn't the case, particularly the latter where we played some good stuff. In that earlier period it was a 3 man midfield and the latter a 4 man midfield made of CM's (@BBZ8800's now famous workhorse 11). What has subsequently happened is that he cannot (due to Dembélé and Coutinho's continued integration as well as their performances) play that way and the 3 man midfield is out the window when both Messi and Suárez play. This has left us light in central midfield and as a consequence we struggle to control games in the manner we should and some teams have actually overrun us significantly.

But this is how Valverde sets up to play. He's a staunch believer in a double pivot, which is alright I guess, but how do you gain midfield superiority in said system without sacrificing attacking width? I've asked this question repeatedly here and to this day nobody has been able to answer me. So maybe you can...

MessiCam produced stats to show that defence was better last year.

Then realised he had it the wrong way round those same stats showed the defence better this year.

Now those stats he tried to show the defence was better last year have been discarded and searches for new stats.

Says it all.

Barca are conceding less goals, less attempts on target..... the defence is better.

The defence being in place to block a shot is a positive not a negative ffs. If a team has 10 shots in the box and they are pressured and defence in place to block them that is better than 5 shots in the box where the defence is all over the shop.

Teams like Burnley and Atletico have built defences that way. They dont care so much about how many chances you get but how many easy/uncontested ones.

The polar opposite has been Liverpool and Peps teams at top level. They wont give up as many but they can give up 3/4 much easier ones and get destroyed.

You know what... Stop putting words in my mouth. I said, and I quote:

Yes Barça do have the best defence in La Liga as well as the lowest xGA but that xGA is higher than at the same point last year.

Note. I was very careful with my words... I said best defense in La Liga not better defense than last year.

My error previously was using total saves and not saves from inside the box in the current season. Shots on target per game faced from inside the box is 2 this season vs the 2.6 last year. We concede 6.3 shots inside the box though as opposed to 5.6 last year.

I also explained my error. It's post #4634 of this very thread. It's also unedited.

As for the rest, making more blocks is a positive but conceding more shots is not (if you concede one more shot and make one more block the net result is the same). So what gives? You can't also assume that all misses are due to defensive pressure when it could just as easily be poor finishing. This is where the xGA is useful...

So what's your explanation for the increased xGA over last season?

As I see it, MessiCam doesn't consider defending without the ball positive.

Think we are discussing different things.

It's clear we are more comfortable defending behind the ball.

Every team has to defend without the ball and get bodies behind the ball at some stage and I'm grateful that Valverde has instilled more discipline in that sense but he's weakened other areas as a consequence. When you play higher up the opposition have more distance to goal, you have more of the ball and as a consequence you generally concede less chances. It's not as simple as saying more blocks means a better defense especially when those blocks come at the expense of more shots conceded.

 

[Gaudi]

My view is:
Real can score goals with classic football shortpassing actions, but also headers after wing crosses, corners, set pieces, counters, longshots.

City have a team of midgets and they can only score with feet.
They don't have wings actions in terms of crosses.
They don't shoot too much from outside of a box, like all Pep's teams.
They can't score after corners either due to midgets.

So, yeah, City sucks against big boys who know how to neutralize their shortpassing game with two parked buses.
And what is Pep's solution in terms of tactics?
= play the same in terms of tactics, and buy even better players, lol.

Barca vs City?
Well, we are also one dimensional, but at least we have a good defense this time.
Plus, there is some tiny chance that Suarez will score a header from time to time, unlike City's attack, who is probably physically the weakest attacking line in the history of football.



Majority of my numbers REALLY are only my estimations in order to explain my ideas or theories better.

Like physique of players 3/10.
Ev's attack 90/100 and defense 100/100 etc

So, Lee Romeno really didn't say anything wrong or offended me.

Nice stats by him btw.

I've been saying that for a while and don't understand how it's not clear to anyone.
I love Pep and I'm pretty sure BBZ doesnt hate him but versatility brings trophies, or you can do it without it but with one in a lifetime squad.

 

[ini4ever]

But it's useless arguing with [MENTION=16942]BBZ8800[/MENTION] about Guardiola's teams. He has already stated he hates what Guardiola turned Barcelona into.

BBz doesn't hate Pep, he doesn't just believe in midgets anymore He loves tall muscular sexy players more.

 

[JamDav1982]

Every team has to defend without the ball and get bodies behind the ball at some stage and I'm grateful that Valverde has instilled more discipline in that sense but he's weakened other areas as a consequence. When you play higher up the opposition have more distance to goal, you have more of the ball and as a consequence you generally concede less chances. It's not as simple as saying more blocks means a better defense especially when those blocks come at the expense of more shots conceded.

Teams that play higher up often concede less chances but are more exposed against the other top sides who can counter them.

It is not about number of chances a team gives up it is about how often they look left exposed in defence.

Pep has some if not the best shots/xGA stats in europe the past few years at his teams would think but he is consistently been getting pumped in latter stages of CL as teams expose them.

Still dont know what the logic for saying Bayern have defended better than Barca this season is. Their xGA is almost the same in a poorer league, they have conceded more goals in both league and CL.

Even City who week in week out may concede less shots but there is a decent chance will have games they collapse.

Yesterday you tried to use the number of saves from TS and number of shots on goal as proof defence was poorer this season until it was shown that proved defence better this season.

You are searching for stats to fit as that shows.

 

[LeeRomeno]

That's one way to look at it but it's not as simple as that. How shall I put this? That's a tunneled view...

It's all good and well having more bodies, being more compact and blocking more shots if you're giving up the same amount or less chances per game as before but that's not the case. We're conceding more shots and more quality chances all round while having to make more blocks and/or pressuring the opposition into misses (could also be that the opposition just finish poorly or a combination of both but for the sake of consistency I will assume the misses are solely due to defensive presence). That doesn't strike me as a better defense in general but rather a better last ditch effort defense... It's indicative of something being broken further up.

Despite what some may think here, I don't believe Valverde goes into games with the intention of scoring and then sitting back. During his best periods between August/September and December/January (mid January) that certainly wasn't the case, particularly the latter where we played some good stuff. In that earlier period it was a 3 man midfield and the latter a 4 man midfield made of CM's (@BBZ8800's now famous workhorse 11). What has subsequently happened is that he cannot (due to Dembélé and Coutinho's continued integration as well as their performances) play that way and the 3 man midfield is out the window when both Messi and Suárez play. This has left us light in central midfield and as a consequence we struggle to control games in the manner we should and some teams have actually overrun us significantly.

But this is how Valverde sets up to play. He's a staunch believer in a double pivot, which is alright I guess, but how do you gain midfield superiority in said system without sacrificing attacking width? I've asked this question repeatedly here and to this day nobody has been able to answer me. So maybe you can...

So my view is tunneled, but your view is not because of?
There is a difference between a chance and a shot. A shot from random position into area filled with bodies is not a chance, a shot 1v1 against goalkeeper from open position is. You will face more of the latter, if you push your defensive line up and you will face the first type of shots more if you hold it compact near your box. Block is not a last ditch effort, it can be, but in most of cases it is not. We face similar obstacles vs parked busses all the time, look at how Atletico defends, they are so packed around the goal, it is so much more likely to hit some defender than it is to hit target.
According to your logic, Eibar and Getafe the are true defensive strongholds in La Liga, as they have received least amount of shots. I fail to believe it is the case. Our biggest issue for ages has been conceding goals from counter-attacks. This year we have conceded from exactly 1 counter-attack. I would say Valverde has closed the door on that.
I believe most of our issues this season have become from desire to intergrate Coutinho and Dembele, after his return from injury. Our form dropped considerably in january once those 2 fellas became available. It is not surprising as it has been stated many times. Most of players need full pre-season to really fit into team and joining new team in January winter is rarely a success. For both team itself as the player. In order to do that we had to break our very solid setup, which was not perhaps the most beautiful, but certainly effective. But looks couple of months later it is getting better, Coutinho feeling more at home and Dembele has his virtues.

As for your question, you need to realize that change in any system comes with trade off. You cannot simply do some things. Double pivot has virtues Valverde prefers with current team and players and I do not blame him. If Dembele would have been hit from beginning, perhaps he would have used a different setup, but for now it is just not viable. We dont really have quality wingers anymore, Messi does not want to spend time on wing and we have no Neymar and Dembele hasnt been integrated yet, so you focus on other areas.

 

[BBZ8800]

BBz doesn't hate Pep, he doesn't just believe in midgets anymore He loves tall muscular sexy players more.

Yes.
I don't actually hate what Pep has done in 2009-2011.
I do hate what Pep is doing in 2018 and that is playing more or less the same as in 2009-2011.
And I hate when people share the same views as Pep, aka: we should play the same as in 2009-2011, and "that style is not figured out", we just need better players.

Also, I love watching Pep losing TODAY because that means that Barca and our fans have higher chances to move away from our 2009-2011's style, since it is outdated.
If Pep would have won a CL this year, tons of fans here would say: omg, we need to go back to a 2009-2011's style, since Pep proved again that this style still works perfectly even in 2018 and we don't need to evolve or change it.
And we would be stuck for another 4-5 years in the same shit of trying to replicate 2009's tactics.

So, yes, I hate 2018's Pep due to his influences to a current Barca's team and tactics and due to Pep's influence on fans opinion here.

In short: Pep/City lost again in a CL, yeaaaaaaaah baby
There is a higher chance now for Barca's evolving away from Pep's one-dimensional football even more.

 

[MessiCam]

Teams that play higher up often concede less chances but are more exposed against the other top sides who can counter them.

It is not about number of chances a team gives up it is about how often they look left exposed in defence.

Pep has some if not the best shots/xGA stats in europe the past few years at his teams would think but he is consistently been getting pumped in latter stages of CL as teams expose them.

Still dont know what the logic for saying Bayern have defended better than Barca this season is. Their xGA is almost the same in a poorer league, they have conceded more goals in both league and CL.

Even City who week in week out may concede less shots but there is a decent chance will have games they collapse.

Yesterday you tried to use the number of saves from TS and number of shots on goal as proof defence was poorer this season until it was shown that proved defence better this season.

You are searching for stats to fit as that shows.

I made a mistake regarding the Ter Stegen saves and apologised for it. That you now keep bringing it up leads me to believe that you're unable to let that little slip go as if it is the be all and end all.

And no it's not about how often they "look" exposed but rather the quality of the chances they give away. "Look" is not quantifiable but I can see how and why you'd like to use it as a criteria...

So I will ask again... So what's your explanation for the increased xGA over last season? We're making more blocks and getting more bodies behind after all.

So my view is tunneled, but your view is not because of?
There is a difference between a chance and a shot. A shot from random position into area filled with bodies is not a chance, a shot 1v1 against goalkeeper from open position is. You will face more of the latter, if you push your defensive line up and you will face the first type of shots more if you hold it compact near your box. Block is not a last ditch effort, it can be, but in most of cases it is not. We face similar obstacles vs parked busses all the time, look at how Atletico defends, they are so packed around the goal, it is so much more likely to hit some defender than it is to hit target.
According to your logic, Eibar and Getafe the are true defensive strongholds in La Liga, as they have received least amount of shots. I fail to believe it is the case. Our biggest issue for ages has been conceding goals from counter-attacks. This year we have conceded from exactly 1 counter-attack. I would say Valverde has closed the door on that.
I believe most of our issues this season have become from desire to intergrate Coutinho and Dembele, after his return from injury. Our form dropped considerably in january once those 2 fellas became available. It is not surprising as it has been stated many times. Most of players need full pre-season to really fit into team and joining new team in January winter is rarely a success. For both team itself as the player. In order to do that we had to break our very solid setup, which was not perhaps the most beautiful, but certainly effective. But looks couple of months later it is getting better, Coutinho feeling more at home and Dembele has his virtues.

As for your question, you need to realize that change in any system comes with trade off. You cannot simply do some things. Double pivot has virtues Valverde prefers with current team and players and I do not blame him. If Dembele would have been hit from beginning, perhaps he would have used a different setup, but for now it is just not viable. We dont really have quality wingers anymore, Messi does not want to spend time on wing and we have no Neymar and Dembele hasnt been integrated yet, so you focus on other areas.

No. This is your statement...

If you block more shots, this means you have more people in the box and it is more difficult to hit the target, simple as that.

This, the above, is a tunneled view because it ignores other matters.

There is a difference between a chance and a shot. A shot from random position into area filled with bodies is not a chance, a shot 1v1 against goalkeeper from open position is.

Ah, now we're getting somewhere. So we're conceding not only more shots but, as per the xGA, we're conceding higher quality chances too. Does that sound like a better defense to you?

Regarding the counter attack goals conceded, last year we conceded 3 on the counter as opposed to 1 in this not complete season... This supposed problem has been hugely overblown because you can't stop counter attacks unless you play with a low block.

As for the form drop, you're right because Valverde is unable to pack the midfield with CM's so we give up control, but what is your solution while still integrating Dembélé and Coutinho? Mine is to bench Suárez and revert to a 3 man central midfield.

 

[JamDav1982]

I made a mistake regarding the Ter Stegen saves and apologised for it. That you now keep bringing it up leads me to believe that you're unable to let that little slip go as if it is the be all and end all.

And no it's not about how often they "look" exposed but rather the quality of the chances they give away. "Look" is not quantifiable but I can see how and why you'd like to use it as a criteria...

So I will ask again... So what's your explanation for the increased xGA over last season? We're making more blocks and getting more bodies behind after all.

No apology needed.

The point is when those stats you thought were in your favour they were evidence of defence being poorer this season. When it was shown to be opposite it doesnt prove the defence is better this season ans you just look for other stats.

No it is how often the defence is exposed and that leads directly to quality of chances given away.

I dont have any explanation for xGA as I think it is a completely flawed stat. Facts are TS is making less saves and less from inside box and team are conceding less - defence is better.

Peps teams dominate that stat in last few years it seems and have gone out the CL concedeing 6,5,5 and two goals over two legs and already conceded 3 this time in one leg.

Which team had best defence in world last season in your opinion?

 

[JamDav1982]

Conceding less goals and Ter Stegen making less saves and less from inside area.

Those were the stats used by you until realised they were wrong and now look to other stats.

Barca defence has been better and Ter Stegen had less to do. Your big argument was TS been busier and better than before.

It has nothing to do about 'apologizing for an error' it is the way you then move the goal posts as original stats proved you wrong.

 

[Joan]

Every team has to defend without the ball and get bodies behind the ball at some stage and I'm grateful that Valverde has instilled more discipline in that sense but he's weakened other areas as a consequence. When you play higher up the opposition have more distance to goal, you have more of the ball and as a consequence you generally concede less chances. It's not as simple as saying more blocks means a better defense especially when those blocks come at the expense of more shots conceded.

They may create fewer chances but the ones they create will hardly be stopped. Defending with high line and keeping the ball is usually more dangerous, no stats are going to change that.
e: this is really badly said, keeping the ball is not dangerous but becomes once you play too high, don't want to cause confusion.

Just looked at last season's stats. xGA us and Atleti are even. What was the difference, in your opinion? Was Oblak that better than MAtS?

An interesting trend, teams who spend more time defending behind the ball, like Atletico, Juve, us, etc. are expected (xGA) to concede far more than they do. What's the catch?

I can only tell that the stats (xG) don't describe reality well enough. An example to ilustrate this:

Atletico Madrid last 3 seasons, xGA, GA, difference.
2017./18. 29.73, 15, +14,73
2016./17. 31,34, 27, +4,34
2015./16. 27,8, 18, +9,80

And teams like Napoli, xGA, GA, difference.
2017./18. 18,66, 21, -2,34
2016./17. 32,16, 39, -6,84
2015./16. 26,69, 32, -5,31

Why are teams who play higher up the pitch expected to concede less than they do while teams which sit back concede way less than this stats show?
Is it really trustworthy?

 

[LeeRomeno]

No. This is your statement...



This, the above, is a tunneled view because it ignores other matters.



Ah, now we're getting somewhere. So we're conceding not only more shots but, as per the xGA, we're conceding higher quality chances too. Does that sound like a better defense to you?

Regarding the counter attack goals conceded, last year we conceded 3 on the counter as opposed to 1 in this not complete season... This supposed problem has been hugely overblown because you can't stop counter attacks unless you play with a low block.

As for the form drop, you're right because Valverde is unable to pack the midfield with CM's so we give up control, but what is your solution while still integrating Dembélé and Coutinho? Mine is to bench Suárez and revert to a 3 man central midfield.

So you blame me for having tunnel vision based on stats yet you yourself keep on bringing up stats, but that is not tunneled view? What matters does it ignore? xGA is very much based on shots still, if more shots are shot at us, this will quite obviously come out as more goals excepted to concede. That data is not perfect, it is an estimation based on different kinds of datasets. We should have conceded 10 more goals according to that data this season, while at the same time we have actually conceded less and ter Stegen has made less saves. So either explanation is that our opponents for some unknown reason just completely lose their cool while shooting at us or then they are just not in that good positions to score.
We have played game of 2 halves for most of season. We either suck first half and then decide in second or other way round. Play comfortably first half and then let opposition have the ball and sit tight. Obviously this type of game in statistical point of view will generate more "theoretical" chances.

My solution would have been not integrating at all in mid-season and see what comes out next season. Suarez will have to face bench more anyways, he is getting older and probably should take CR7 approach in sitting out more and being sharp due to playing less.

 

[JamDav1982]

xGA is far too weighted to possession based teams and not actual defensive strength of a side.

That possession based style may well be fine and limit the chances against technically inferior teams but the top ones that can break on you better it doesnt seem to stand up.

Fucking Arsenal came top on that stat a few seasons ago in EPL and second season before that.

 

[MessiCam]

No apology needed.

The point is when those stats you thought were in your favour they were evidence of defence being poorer this season. When it was shown to be opposite it doesnt prove the defence is better this season ans you just look for other stats.

No it is how often the defence is exposed and that leads directly to quality of chances given away.

I dont have any explanation for xGA as I think it is a completely flawed stat. Facts are TS is making less saves and less from inside box and team are conceding less - defence is better.

Peps teams dominate that stat in last few years it seems and have gone out the CL concedeing 6,5,5 and two goals over two legs and already conceded 3 this time in one leg.

Which team had best defence in world last season in your opinion?

So now it is a flawed stat? Has it ever occurred to you that more saves last year could have been easier saves and hence the xGA is lower?

Facts are TS is making less saves and less from inside box and team are conceding less

Yes, but are all shots created equal? Is ter Stegen operating at the same level or is he making more quality saves?

This was your view on the matter last night... Post #4622

That doesnt mean the defence was stronger last year.

It is more about quality of chances and giving keeper a chance to save them.

Why the turn around?

And I'm not looking for other stats... I was responding to [MENTION=17987]LeeRomeno[/MENTION] who stated that Valverde has turned this team into a defensive behemoth when in my opinion he really has not. I stick with my opinion that the low goals conceded stat is due to ter Stegen operating at a significantly higher level and that what we've gained in some areas we've lost in others in terms of the defense as a whole.