Those players arent frozen in time. Arthur and Frenkie have room to grow. I just want us to trust the talent. I know you dont rate Arthur, but being a key player in a Copa Libertadores and Copa America win is a massive achievement for a 22 years old player. Both matching Rakitics output isnt too outlandish with consistent playing time. Maybe I am too optimistic
Oh, this is one of the key things where I don't agree with 90% of this forum.
Imo, you guys are too romantic and you are overrating personal development. Or: you are overrating HOW MUCH a player can grow in a specific skill.
Here is why, and my estimation.
I know that it is hard to put talent and skills in numbers, but take these numbers only as a principle, not as something set in stone, to explain what I am trying to say.
Now, each player is using 100s of skills while playing.
Pace, stamina, strength, tactical skills, marking, tackling, passing, creativity, dribbling, shooting, press resistance, aerial game, reading of the game, off the ball movement, movement with the ball etc.
Further, we all agree that for some positions : you need one set of skills and for other positions, you need a different set of skills.
But now comes a key part:
= every single skill is consisted of 2 parts:
1. natural talent
2. learned part
Let's say in terms of numbers that skills can go from 1 to 100. After 100, you are at a world class level in a specific skill, like Xavi, Iniesta, Messi etc.
Now, another thing is, IMO, that a natural talent is ALWAYS more important than the learned skill.
And NO MATTER how much you are learning, you can almost never beat the guy who has way better natural talent in a specific skill.
Let's take an example:
Dribbling:
Let's say that Neymar has a natural skill already at 90 in dribbling.
Now, in my estimation, each player can improve every single skill in learning by only, let's say 30 points.
In that learning part, there are other factors again, let's say:
1. player's will and ability to learn (motivation and IQ) can bring him 1 to 15 points
2. and a good coach and good teammates who will guide him, another 1 to 15 points
So, if a player plays under Valverde, he will improve only let's say 2-3 points.
While if he plays under Pep for a few years, he can improve for 15 or even 20 points. I can agree on that.
Regarding player's personal growth in terms of motivation (how much is he willing to learn and improve every day) and regarding his IQ, the same story:
= if he doesn't want to learn too much (or if he is quite dumb), he will naturally over years improve only for let's say 1-5 points.
= on the other hand, if a player is like CR7 and is working on himself every day, he can improve 15 or even 20 points in majority of skills due to that motivation and self improvement will.
Now, let's go back to a dribbling skill.
If Neymar has a natural skill 90.
Then, in terms of learning, he can add additional 30 or even 40 points on top of that natural talent.
1. if he will be lazy and have a low IQ, he will improve only for 5 points. That is 90+5=95 skills
2. if he will work hard and work on his skills every day in all aspects, he can jump to 110 in skills eventually.
Now add a good coach:
1. if he will be lazy and have EV as a coach, he will improve only 90+5+5=to 100 in skills
2. if he will be motivated to learn by himself paired with Pep as a coach, he could improve by 30-40 points and jump to 120 or 130 in dribbling skills after a few years
So, I agree with you guys in this part that playing under EV or Pep makes a difference in terms of how much will a player improve.
But, as you see, I DON'T agree regarding actual numbers.
A player can improve, but imo, you are overrating that impact of a coach.
I have a feeling that in this example, you think that a player can improve by 50 or even 100 points only because of Pep.
Which I think is impossible.
Let's go further, now let's take Rakitic and his dribbling.
His natural talent for dribbling is bad.
Neymar had 90 skills in a natural talent.
Let's say that Raki has only 30 skills in a natural talent.
Now, we come to a 2nd point:
NO MATTER HOW MUCH WILL Raki WORK and LEARN, he can never be better even than a lazy Neymar.
So, Neymar had a natural skill 90, and even if he is lazy and dumb and even if he is coached by EV, he will get 5+5 skills over time, which means=90+5+5=100 skills in the end.
Raki, if his starting skills are bad (30 points), then even with all the motivation, all the IQ, and Pep coaching him, he can get at max 30-40 additional skills in his dribbling skills.
Which means that in the end, even in the worst case, Neymar will have 100 skills in dribbling (coached by EV and not willing to learn by himself).
While Raki will have 30 starting skills and 30-40 skills earned through life, so he will end at 60-70 skills max. While even a lazy Neymar coached by bad coaches will have 100 in skills.
So, my point here is:
1. yes, every skill can be learned
2. yes, a player can learn if he is willing to learn + if he has a good coach
3. but still, at the end of a day, those improvements are way smaller than a basic natural talent, which is a key factor.
I would say that roughly: 70% is a natural talent and 30% is learning in all skills.
Now, you said that I hate Dembele or Arthur.
I don't hate them.
But here is a problem.
For example, in my estimation, I would say that Dembele has IQ and decisions making at a level let's say 20 (skills can go to 100+).
So, his natural talent in IQ is horrible.
And now, if you apply my theory from above:
1. even if he will work hard, he can gain only 15-20 skills on top of his natural skills in IQ
2. even if he will be coached by Pep, he can again earn only 15-20 skills at max
So, imo, if you give him Pep and if he will work extremely hard for 5 years on his decisions, his decisions in the end will still be only at:
20 skills in a natural talent + 30-40 skills gained over 5 years in PERFECT CIRCUMSTANCES.
= so, he would have 50-60 skills max in IQ, reading of the game, predicting moves etc.
While someone like Ronaldinho, Xavi and similar, who was born with good IQ, decisions making, reading of the game, will start their path with 90 in skills and eventually improve to even 120 or 130 in decisions making.
So, my point here is: Dembele's IQ and decisions making is SO BAD that even with Pep and all the learning, he will still end as average at best in that part.
So, this is where I don't agree with you guys when you say: but he is young, he will improve.
Ok, he is young, but he can't improve in an unlimited amount.
Also: you say: under Pep, he would improve a lot.
Well, he would improve, but HOW MUCH?
Imo, not as much as you think because his natural skill in IQ and decisions is almost deadly low.
Remember Adama Traore, he was so dumb that no coach in the world could have helped him.
Or Alexis Sanchez.
Now, let's go to Arthur.
What I don't like about him, is IMO; that his natural skill in a killer instinct for a forward pass is horribly low.
At 20-30 level.
His natural instincts are always: keep the ball when they attack you.
Don't look at your teammates.
Don't think about whether you can start a deadly counter.
He is only thinking about how to avoid a tackle from an opponent, and not caring too much about the attacking play.
So, if you apply everything from the above, I don't believe that Arthur can improve as much as you think in his key passes, assists and shooting, or about everything in the final third.
So, if you give him Pep and 5 years of self improvement, he will still gain only 30-40 points, which would make him a CM with 60-70 in creative skills, which would still be way below Barca's level.
Regarding a part how he played well for Brasil at Copa.
Well:
1. they played in 4231 formation with a double pivot. Him and Casemiro were defenders and guys who only had to bring the ball into the attacking half.
He didn't have any attacking duties.
2. further, matches at Copa are like fighting Kung Fu, extremely weird suicidal football.
Opponents are running around like crazy, like headless chicken.
Every action and every tackle is on a verge of fight, blood and injuries.
So, basically, this kamikaze type of football is perfect for Arthur.
When an opponent is running like crazy towards him, he will just use his world class press resistant skill and get rid of the opponents.
Basically, South American kamikaze football is a perfect scenery for Arthur and his set of skills.
But now, move him to a slow, granny La Liga where teams park a bus at Camp Nou against us and you have a different story.
No one is running at full speed towards him.
There is no need at all to use your press resistant skills.
And we are playing for 80% of the match in the attacking third, around the box and all we need is players who will DO SOMETHING around the box.
And then, Arthur's play around the box is his weakest area.
Forward passes, dribbles, runs into a box, shooting, scoring, predator instincts.
And again, I don't think that Arthur is a bad player. I would keep him here as an option for certain matches.
But for La liga where we play around the box in majority of matches, he can be useful only in matches against Real, Atletico, and on some tougher away matches.
In easy matches, he is almost useless.
Or, he can work ONLY with Coutinho or a similar deadly creator infront of him (or in 4231 as a double pivot without too much attacking responsibilities).
One more time, this is why my eyes are bleeding when I read "perfect formations" from our forum with:
Busi, Frenkie, Arthur (or Vidal-Frenkie-Arthur) and especially with Dembele-Griezz No9-Messi in attack.
** For the end, regarding my theory from above about natural skills and learned skills.
Try to find examples of players who were an absolute crap in some skills and improved over time to world class levels.
You won't find them, or you will find some 1-2 freaky examples.
This is why I am often talking about deadly flaws and why I have said after 2 matches that Dembele can't make it.
Or that Halil is too dumb to make it etc.
Or that Malcom is just too meh in natural skills and he can't improve enough (through learning) to be good enough for us.
So, in short: I think that you guys are massively overrating that learning part.
And you are too often using:
He is young.
He can develop.
He can iron his flaws.
Btw. Arthur will be 23 in 6 days.
So, how much can he actually improve and learn in problematic skills? I mean, he is 23 already, he is not a kid, but a player entering his prime years.
For example, Iniesta was 24 when Pep came. Do you think that his game has improved that much IN EVERY ASPECT from the age 24 to let's say 2012, aged 28?
Or Busi, he was aged 21 in a final of 2009'. His basic, natural skills were there. Has he changed THAT MUCH since the age of 21? I don't think so. Of course, he improved in reading of the game and in tactical skills, but it is not as if his shooting, dribbling, aerial game, pace, stamina changed much compared to his natural skills.
In that sense, go back to Dembele, Arthur (or even Semedo, soon to be 26, with his horrible game in the attacking half): how much do you think that these guys can improve compared to their natural skills and a natural talent?
Again, you are throwing a Pep excuse too easily.
A thought for the end?
= maybe is Pep picking ONLY players with good natural skills and with a high IQ and work ethic who can gain additional 30-40 skills on top of their natural skills?
= and is avoiding dumb players (who can't learn, obviously) or players who have too low starting (natural) skills because with them, no amount of coaching can improve their game to a required world class level?