Manchester United

[Maradona37]

As a Barca fan, I would never root for Utd in anything. The Real Madrid of Northern Europe

Have you noticed how they sneakily try to claim an affinity with Real Madrid, trying to bask in the glory of their 15 CLs as they only have three? Lol. I noticed this a year or two ago and @Givenchy has noticed this phenomenon too and mentioned it.

 

[Maradona37]

Past performance was also the 22/23 season where UTD were great under ETH
Long-terms processes are not linear

I think they got lucky that season too, Underlying metrics said they should have finished about 6th, not 3rd, they got outplayed a lot.

The whole thing about Man United is they get outplayed a lot and cannot play cohesive, possession football, but they tend to manage to score goals from nothing here and there, individual magic that isn't sustainable really. They seem to rack up more points than their performances deserve, even when they were good. It sounds daft but they have this supernatural ability to get more points in a season than their performances warrant. Even last season they deserved to finish about 15th, not 8th.

So they might do better in pure points totals this season, but I doubt their performances will improve much. I like you a lot Birdy and rate you as a poster, but I do think you give Man United too much credit often.

However, you'd likely say the same about me in the opposite direction, as I acknowledge I am biased against them as I despise them more than any other club.

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

I think Manu is on a good way, especially because of the young guys like Mainoo, Garnacho and Amad.

If they manage to do 2-3 good transfers they are back and they can win the Pl after Pep leaves.

They need to throw out the old team who has failed for years and years. That's the biggest burden. They keep guys who have no business playing for them.

 

[Maradona37]

They need to throw out the old team who has failed for years and years. That's the biggest burden. They keep guys who have no business playing for them.

Their fans are complicit too. The top reds who constantly defend the underperforming players and act like they're as good as the City players, it's just the state of the club that fails them.

They need to get real.

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

Their fans are complicit too. The top reds who constantly defend the underperforming players and act like they're as good as the City players, it's just the state of the club that fails them.

They need to get real.

Very true. They always want more out of their key players who have failed for years. It's like we would still expect something from Lenglet, Umtiti and Alba to perform better.

Just have to admit they are not good enough anymore or never were.

 

[Maradona37]

Very true. They always want more out of their key players who have failed for years. It's like we would still expect something from Lenglet, Umtiti and Alba to perform better.

Just have to admit they are not good enough anymore or never were.

Exactly. They just don't have the balls to admit they are also-rans now. They cannot handle it as they were used to winning in England, so they build a deluded reality where their players are top players and it's only the management and structure of the club that is the problem.

Like it was always the Glazers fault that McTominay, Wan Bissaka, Maguire, Lindelof, Donny etc were garbage.

They have now put all their hope and expectation on Ratcliffe and his team but I suspect that will all end badly too.

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

Exactly. They just don't have the balls to admit they are also-rans now. They cannot handle it as they were used to winning in England, so they build a deluded reality where their players are top players and it's only the management and structure of the club that is the problem.

Like it was always the Glazers fault that McTominay, Wan Bissaka, Maguire, Lindelof, Donny etc were garbage.

They have now put all their hope and expectation on Ratcliffe and his team but I suspect that will all end badly too.

I agree. Now they are collecting old Ajax players from their glory year. It will fail. Most of these players didn't elevate their game since the Ajax times. They are again trying to build the glory days of something.. Usually not good idea.

Imo, they need to clean the team and keep the players who perform and start from zero. Then they have a chance to be the best in couple years. The current way they will stay mediocre.

 

[Maradona37]

I agree. Now they are collecting old Ajax players from their glory year. It will fail. Most of these players didn't elevate their game since the Ajax times. They are again trying to build the glory days of something.. Usually not good idea.

Imo, they need to clean the team and keep the players who perform and start from zero. Then they have a chance to be the best in couple years. The current way they will stay mediocre.

I think it will take a lot longer than a couple of years, but that is my personal opinion.

You could say football moves fast, but look at the insane contracts they give to average players. They stockpile so much deadwood that other clubs don't wanna go near. Trying to turn all that over with their debt problems and the looming issue of a new stadium/renovating Old Trafford is far too much. Ratcliffe knows this and that's probably partly why the cheeky cunt wants the taxpayer to pay for a new stadium in the middle of a crisis in this country.

I think they have way, way too much work to do for it to come to fruition in a few years. Even if they take great strides, other clubs will not stand still and will not simply allow them to overtake them.

But that's just my opinion mate, and I like your posts all the time. Just disagree with that sentence.

 

[FinBarcelonafan]

I think with couple years I mean anything from 2-4. Two probably too early though. Agree on that.

 

[Maradona37]

I think with couple years I mean anything from 2-4. Two probably too early though. Agree on that.

Tbh, if Pep did a Ferguson and stayed long-term for decades (He likely won't), I'd be confident of City getting to 21 titles before United. That would be 12 more City titles to 0 United. That's the machine City are and the state United are in in my view. Not saying it would happen, but the fact it is not outwith the realms of reality shows how much work they have to do.

 

[Birdy]

I think they got lucky that season too, Underlying metrics said they should have finished about 6th, not 3rd, they got outplayed a lot.

The whole thing about Man United is they get outplayed a lot and cannot play cohesive, possession football, but they tend to manage to score goals from nothing here and there, individual magic that isn't sustainable really. They seem to rack up more points than their performances deserve, even when they were good. It sounds daft but they have this supernatural ability to get more points in a season than their performances warrant. Even last season they deserved to finish about 15th, not 8th.

So they might do better in pure points totals this season, but I doubt their performances will improve much. I like you a lot Birdy and rate you as a poster, but I do think you give Man United too much credit often.

However, you'd likely say the same about me in the opposite direction, as I acknowledge I am biased against them as I despise them more than any other club.

I agree about the 23/24 season and I was posting the metrics all the time that were saying they deserved to be 10th or 11th while Chelsea deserved to be 4th or 5th

About 22/23 I am not sure it was the same. Do you have the data?

 

[Maradona37]

I agree about the 23/24 season and I was posting the metrics all the time that were saying they deserved to be 10th or 11th while Chelsea deserved to be 4th or 5th

About 22/23 I am not sure it was the same. Do you have the data?

I don't have it to hand but I remember it being posted on forums at the time. It also tallied up with what i watched from them. If you know sites where they collect this stuff you can look it up. MAYBE I am wrong but they did - from the eye test and a few statsheads I read from - seem to finish with more points that the metrics suggested.

Of course this was far more pronounced last season.

What we must also remember though is that football isn't a game where predictive models will always pan out. Sometimes teams will be lucky, other times teams will be unlucky. It's the nature of a team sport. That's why I always raise my eyebrow when people say the league table never lies - I find it impossible to believe that after 38 games played each, 20 teams finish in the exact order their performances warrant.

Then there's also the weaknesses and limits of metrics. For example - as far as I know - xG doesn't take into account the proficiency of who's taking the shot when it calculates the likelihood of a goal. Obviously Messi in the exact same situation has a better chance of scoring than Garnacho.

I guess where underlying metrics show their worth is in long-term predicting, and in that sense United fell hard and got found out last season (though still not far enough as we have said).

 

[Maradona37]

I found this

sort by expected points. Like I say data has flaws but just going by the metrics

They ended up 8 points or so better off two seasons ago.

What's interesting is that City and Arsenal were better off, especially Arsenal who were miles better off, but got so many points that even in the x points table they're first and second.

United should also have scored more goals (I remember them missing chances that season) and conceded more (I remember them being lucky not to concede more). So it tallies up.

Chelsea also got 8 points fewer than expected, and scored almost 14 goals fewer. Their ability to finish off chances has been poor for several seasons, so that is another example that speaks to the veracity of this site.

There are other interesting quirks. It is interesting that - near the top of the table - Newcastle performed almost exactly as expected in points, and were effectively as good as Arsenal in xPts

If I am reading the data correctly.

Edit: United are in 15th for last season, eerily exactly as I said (I just found the site after you replied to me). They were a massive SEVENTEEN (!) goals better off than they should have been in terms of conceded, and 16 points better off than expected. Their expected points is 44, relegation form almost with a better performing bottom three. Interestingly, for United fans claiming they missed loads of chances last season, that model says they should only have scored about three more goals than they did.

So they were about on par in scoring goals as they should have been, but where they accumulated the bulk of the points they didn't deserve last season is in teams likely missing good chances against them. But teams did shoot on sight a lot (probably because of Onana being a weak link) so it could be the accumulation of many low likelihood efforts.

Also, look at Everton's underperformance in goals scored. They should have scored at least 20 goals more than they did LOL.

Another interesting stat is Villa overperforming by about 12 points - I did think they got lucky at times last season when I watched them and were in a false position. Have to keep an eye on them this season to see if they fall back a bit, especially with CL football. Just a possibility, not a definite.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2022/2023 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2022/2023 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

 

[Don Juan Laporta Estruch]

Bumchester Ufarted have got no chance because they have nothing up top. They have some good defenders now, but that's negated by having such a error prone goalkeeper playing behind them.

Their best attacking player is Bruno, but bizarrely they decide to play him as an 8 most games, sometimes even as deep as in a double pivot, when he should be playing as a 10 behind the striker. As he was when they and he, both had their best season in recent times, finishing 2nd under Solskjaer.

The attacking players they have bought won't help much. Garnacho can be good on his day, but inconsistent. The rest are the very definition of average ( Mount, Amad, Sancho, Antony, Hojlund, Zirkzee, Rashford ). Ferran level folk.

 

[Maradona37]

Bumchester Ufarted have got no chance because they have nothing up top. They have some good defenders now, but that's negated by having such a error prone goalkeeper playing behind them.

Their best attacking player is Bruno, but bizarrely they decide to play him as an 8 most games, sometimes even as deep as in a double pivot, when he should be playing as a 10 behind the striker. As he was when they and he, both had their best season in recent times, finishing 2nd under Solskjaer.

The attacking players they have bought won't help much. Garnacho can be good on his day, but inconsistent. The rest are the very definition of average ( Mount, Amad, Sancho, Antony, Hojlund, Zirkzee, Rashford ). Ferran level folk.

Yea agree with most of that. Not really a fan of Fernandes myself, though I acknowledge he's probably their best midfield or attacking player. That's not saying a lot though.