Manchester United

[Maradona37]

Scholes and ferdinand with 'concerns over De Ligt' and implying he's gonna be a colossal failure. Fucking hell, for a change those two clowns aren't hyping up everything Man United and might be right about something

 

[Maradona37]

@Birdy

I don't know if you have had the chance to read the posts as of yet, but thoughts on the underlying metrics of United in 22/23? And observations on other teams? Do you agree?

 

[Birdy]

@Birdy

I don't know if you have had the chance to read the posts as of yet, but thoughts on the underlying metrics of United in 22/23? And observations on other teams? Do you agree?

Just saw.
Problem is Understat is a notoriously bad site for xG metrics, probably the worst of the known ones out there.

Companies like Opta or Statsbomb are much more reliable
During last season I was frequently posting such metrics:

which show what the 'deserved' position was for each team in the league

 

[Maradona37]

Fair enough, it was just the first one I saw.

Tbh it did seem to tally up with a lot of patterns I had seen over the last two seasons, not just with United, but trends in other teams too.

Chelsea missing chances, Villa overperforming, United overperforming, City and Arsenal getting more points than excepted but still being 1st and 2nd in x Table (because title winners do tend to get a few points more due to those games they grind out,it would be hard to fully 'deserve' 97 points or whatever), Newcastle performing about on par in points in 22-23.

So while it's maybe an inaccurate site, it did seem to tally up with my eye test of watching these teams. And my eye test is what i trust the most when I follow football.

Either way, even if there's a difference of a few places, or goals or whatever, the general trends would be the same on most sites, even if the figures are more pronounced on some.

 

[Jenks]

Chelsea massively overperforming xG doesn't seem possible. They had such bad finishing last season.

 

[Maradona37]

Chelsea massively overperforming xG doesn't seem possible. They had such bad finishing last season.

No it's the other way about. They massively underperfomed ie they missed a lot of chances.

They also finished lower than they should have based on 'metrics'. Same the season before.

Edit: actually the season before last was way worse. Birdy doesn't like Understat but according to it Chelsea should only have scored three more goals than they did last season (as opposed to deserving 14 more goals the season before). Seems conservative for last season but it still points to the general trend.

That above must have been at some point during the season because it isn't all of the clubs' finishing position. But, assuming I am reading it right, at one point Chelsea were 14th (actual in red), but according to xG should have been fourth (expected in purple). For Opta.

Basically, the further right the arrow goes the more they're underperforming xG and getting a lower position. West Ham (and Fulham) overperformed it almost as much as Chelsea underperformed it. West Ham were very clinical last season from my watching.

I am pretty sure I have interpreted that correctly, but if not feel free to correct me anyone.

Edit 2: It must have been early in the season as Spurs and Brighton's actual positions are above Arsenal, and United's arrow going left isn't that big yet, they hadn't overperformed much yet.

 

[Maradona37]

De Ligt and Mazraoui confirmed.

This has the makings of a great season for us ABUs. Strong chance it all ends in catastrophe.

 

[Horatio]

And wan bissaka sold. Gonna fly now

 

[Maradona37]

And wan bissaka sold. Gonna fly now

He's awful, getting rid of him is a good thing yes. They've mugged off West Ham. But they spent years arguing he was good enough on their sites. It was obvious to me he was poor before he even signed. Shows how deluded they are.

This has all the makings of the Pogba summer of 2016. Think they're signing superstars, but they're donkeys and it all goes to shit.

I mean they had a clear run at De Ligt, Bayern didn't want him (high wages didn't help) and he's been at three clubs in about five years. Plus he generally looks a calamity every time I watch him. I've seen oil tankers turn quicker. cannot get in the Dutch side yet United fans saying he's better than Van Dijk...

Very much comes across as a hipster type player who is rated by FIFA players for no reason whatsoever. Looking forward to seeing his disasterclasses.

mazraoui is actually decent enough but he will rarely be fit I expect.

 

[Maradona37]

This is a fanbase who debated for THREE YEARS and thousands of pages whether Ole was the right man, when it was obvious to anyone with a brain he was clueless and a total charisma vacuum from the day he became manager.

Why would you listen to anything their moronic fans say?

 

[JamDav1982]

Not quite.. a lot of their fans were against Ole being there for so long and did not rate Wan Bissaka for anything bar 1v1 defending.

 

[Maradona37]

Yeah but if you read the Redcafe forums loads of their fans were in favour too. Plus their matchgoing fans are lemmings who supported him generally.

The point is he was clearly not the right man from day one. A wet lettuce like him even getting the job in the first place was ridiculous. Was always gonna end in tears.

true on AWB - but there were a lot who talked about him being a 'great defender'. He's good one on one but positioning, defending crosses, holding the offside line, getting passed around, all poor. Some seem to think diving into tackles constitutes a good defender. Just shows he is poor positionally, as does other things. Not to mention he's awful on the ball.

 

[Maradona37]

Anyway if you are looking for another four hour disagreement/argument, absolutely fuck that.

Let's stick to our own beliefs and we will see how the season goes.

 

[JamDav1982]

Yeah but if you read the Redcafe forums loads of their fans were in favour too. Plus their matchgoing fans are lemmings who supported him generally.

The point is he was clearly not the right man from day one. A wet lettuce like him even getting the job in the first place was ridiculous. Was always gonna end in tears.

true on AWB - but there were a lot who talked about him being a 'great defender'. He's good one on one but positioning, defending crosses, getting passed around, all poor. Some seem to think diving into tackles constitutes a good defender. Just shows he is poor positionally, as does other things.

Some of them are excited and hard to blame them when watched Maguire and Evans a lot of last season.

Cant see the euphoria and there is balance between how good some expect and some sceptical.

Went on to Bayern forum and they are not all that happy with the sale and saying it is largely down to his salary.

Their defence should be a lot better this season when all fit.

Some of those back fours last season were not far off the bottom sides.

Man Utd need to get back into to top 4 and progress from there. They are a mile off of City, Arsenal and Liverpool.

 

[Maradona37]

Some of them are excited and hard to blame them when watched Maguire and Evans a lot of last season.

Cant see the euphoria and there is balance between how good some expect and some sceptical.

Went on to Bayern forum and they are not all that happy with the sale and saying it is largely down to his salary.

Well we will see.

I go by what I think of the player. I don't really care what Man United fans or Bayern fans think. Ultimately they are a mix of different people with different opinions, like you and I are. Some Bayern fans being upset to lose De Ligt proves nothing, and definitely doesn't guarantee he'll do well.

You slag Evans but at times he actually put in decent performances. I don't rate him but he's a meme because of his age and them signing him back.

They can be excited all they like, but there's a fine line between excitement and delusion. Ultimately this is a fanbase who get 'excited' every pre season, and it ALWAYS ends in tears, so why will this time be any different?

That's what Man United fans do - they get giddy and predict a great season, then it all goes to shit and they're left reeling.

I've predicted their struggles for a decade now and I see no reason to change my mind this season. There's plenty of clubs in the league with better players and most importantly, far better coaches.